Market Summary

U.S. equity futures are pointing to a mixed open heading into Tuesday’s session, with S&P 500 futures trading 6.00 points below fair value while Nasdaq futures sit 66.00 points above fair value as traders show renewed appetite for technology names following Monday’s brutal afternoon reversal. Dow futures are under pressure in the wake of Apple’s fiscal Q4 report, which featured in-line revenue but a stock trading down nearly 4% premarket despite beating earnings estimates on tariff refunds.

Monday’s session encapsulated the market’s current split personality: the S&P 500 closed at 7541.47 (-0.5%), the Nasdaq Composite fell to 25184.75 (-1.1%), while the DJIA managed to finish higher at 51984.19 (+0.4%). All three averages had been up more than 1% intraday before a sharp afternoon selloff in semiconductors and AI-infrastructure names erased the gains. The divergence was most evident in the S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index (+0.8%), which outpaced its market-cap-weighted counterpart by 1.3 percentage points — underscoring continued rotation away from concentrated mega-cap/AI leadership toward cyclicals, financials, and defensives.

Crude oil’s sharp decline Monday (-7.3% to $96.51/bbl) on hopes for a U.S.-Iran diplomatic breakthrough was the catalyst for the early broad-market rally, but oil is recovering this morning (+0.8% to $97.26/bbl) amid reports suggesting the two sides may be further from an agreement than initially believed — removing some of the tailwind that fueled yesterday’s cyclical strength. Markets now turn attention to tonight’s midterm election results, which carry significant implications for fiscal policy, taxation, and regulatory direction depending on the balance of power in Congress.

Market Snapshot

Index Levels (Nov 2 close):

S&P 500: 7541.47 (-38.67, -0.5%)
Nasdaq Composite: 25184.75 (-272.68, -1.1%)
DJIA: 51984.19 (+213.67, +0.4%)
S&P MidCap 400: +0.8%
Russell 2000: -0.2%

Pre-Market Futures (Nov 3, 08:05 ET):

S&P 500 futures vs. fair value: -6.00
Nasdaq futures vs. fair value: +66.00

WaveFinder Market Breadth (Nov 3):

Primary Sentiment: Bearish | Bulls 589 / Bears 1192
40 SMA Sentiment: Bullish
4% Sentiment: Neutral
% of stocks above 20-day SMA: 51%
% of stocks above 40-day SMA: 60.51%

Sector Performance

Monday session performance (Briefing.com, ranked):
1. Consumer Discretionary: +2.3% (led by Amazon, Marriott)
2. Financials: +1.8%
3. Materials: +1.8%
4. Consumer Staples: +1.8%
5. Industrials: +1.4%
6. Communication Services: -0.2%
7. Information Technology: -2.7% (Semiconductors hit hardest — PHLX Semiconductor Index -3.4%)
8. Energy: -4.0% (tracking crude’s steep decline)

Health Care, Real Estate, and Utilities performance not specified in Briefing.com sector data for the session.

WaveFinder Sector ATR (volatility readings, Nov 3):

Utilities: 4.16% (rising, P100) — highest volatility
Materials: 3.56% (rising, P100)
Consumer Staples: 3.11% (rising, P95)
Health Care: 2.13% (flat, P47)
Consumer Discretionary: 1.86% (rising, P100)
Energy: 0.48% (flat, P11)
Real Estate: 0.36% (rising, P100)
Industrials: -0.04% (rising, P84)
Financials: -0.35% (rising, P95)
Communication Services: -1.07% (flat, P79)
Technology: -2.65% (falling, P0) — volatility compressing

Key Earnings & Movers

Pre-Market (Nov 3):

Apple (AAPL): 324.96, -13.36 (-3.95%) — Beat fiscal Q4 earnings on tariff refunds; revenue roughly in-line; iPhone revenue above estimates, but stock selling off premarket.
Fiserv (FISV): 55.88, +3.95 (+7.61%) — Beat Q3 EPS and revenue; in-line FY26 guidance; plans $500M buyback in Q4.
Palantir (PLTR): 166.63, -11.71 (-6.6%) — Beat EPS by $0.03, beat revenue, guided Q4 above consensus — selling off despite the beat.
Waters (WAT): 460.00, +10.68 (+2.38%) — Beat Q3 earnings, raised FY26 outlook, though Q4 guidance mostly below consensus.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX): 565.57, +12.42 (+2.25%) — Missed Q3 earnings, revenue near consensus; FY26 revenue guidance raised slightly but still below consensus.

From Monday’s Session:

Amazon (AMZN): 245.63, +5.28 (+2.20%) — Upgraded to Buy by Phillip Securities, $330 price target.
Marriott (MAR): 416.30, +17.00 (+4.26%) — Q3 beat and raised outlook on resilient travel demand.
Sherwin-Williams (SHW): 352.37, +19.76 (+5.94%) — DJIA standout on rate-sensitive rotation.
Home Depot (HD): 341.15, +11.95 (+3.63%) — Benefited from falling yields/oil.
AMD: 466.84, -37.96 (-7.52%) — Pressured by Intel’s disappointing report; reports own Q3 results after Tuesday’s close.
Intel (INTC): 59.97, -5.79 (-8.80%) — Continued fallout from last week’s report.
Marvell (MRVL): 171.41, -24.99 (-12.72%) and Lumentum (LITE): 684.40, -156.30 (-18.59%) — Sold off on ~$115B all-stock merger announcement amid dilution/integration concerns.
Oracle (ORCL): 119.10, -11.57 (-8.85%) — Fell on plans to raise $20B via debt and equity, raising AI-financing concerns.
Tower Semiconductor (TSEM): 155.32, -11.16 (-6.70%) — Declined despite strong Q3 and above-consensus Q4 guidance.

Stock Spotlight

Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) delivered one of the more paradoxical reactions of the week — shares fell as much as 6.70% to $155.32 despite beating EPS expectations and posting Q3 revenue growth of 33.0% yr/yr to $526 million, in line with estimates. The specialty foundry’s Q4 guidance of $600 million at the midpoint implies 36% yr/yr growth and 14% sequential growth, driven overwhelmingly by AI infrastructure demand. RF infrastructure revenue surged 176% yr/yr to $295 million, now 56% of total revenue versus just 27% a year ago, while silicon photonics (SiPho) revenue hit roughly $240 million with a Q4 annualized run-rate expected to exceed $1.1 billion.

The real story is visibility: Tower’s 2028 contractual wafer commitments already exceed 2027 levels, supported by customer prepayments, with some contracts now extending through 2029. Management also guided for an unusual skip of typical Q1 seasonality in 2027. Gross margin expanded 1,050 bps yr/yr to 34.0%, and operating margin jumped 1,140 bps to 24.2%. Yet the stock’s decline reflects broader market skepticism toward AI-infrastructure valuations even when fundamentals outperform — a dynamic also visible in AMD, Marvell, Lumentum, and Oracle’s Monday declines. Heavy capex ($191 million versus $185 million in operating cash flow) continues to weigh on free cash flow generation even as the long-term growth algorithm strengthens.

Bond Market & Treasuries

Treasuries are pulling back this morning after an otherwise calm overnight session that lacked Japanese participation due to a holiday. Selling pressure emerged as the European session got underway, coinciding with a rebound in oil prices.

Current Yield Check (Nov 3, 07:57 ET):

2-yr: 4.60% (+1 bp)
3-yr: 4.66% (+2 bps)
5-yr: 4.72% (+3 bps)
10-yr: 4.93% (+4 bps)
30-yr: 5.30% (+3 bps)

Monday’s close (Nov 2, 15:22 ET): 10-yr at 4.90%, with gains across the curve (2-yr: 4.58%, -1bp; 5-yr: 4.69%, -3bps; 30-yr: 5.27%, -4bps) as falling oil prices and high-beta tech weakness drove a bid into bonds.

Key driver: The U.S. Treasury announced Q4 borrowing needs of $618 billion (down $10 billion from the prior estimate) and projected Q1 2027 borrowing of $800 billion, based on an assumed year-end cash balance of $850 billion.

Commodities

WTI Crude: $97.26/bbl, +0.8% (rebounding after Monday’s 7.3% plunge to $96.51/bbl on report that U.S.-Iran diplomacy may be further off than expected)
Gold: $3,925.60/ozt, -1.1%
Copper: $6.388/lb, -2.7%
Silver: not reported in available data

Overseas Markets

Asia (Nov 3):

Nikkei (Japan): Closed for Culture Day holiday
Hang Seng (Hong Kong): +0.6% (23,525.97, +132.60)
Shanghai Composite (China): -0.8%
Sensex (India): +1.6%
Kospi (South Korea): -3.6% — sharp semiconductor-led selloff despite strong chip export data
All Ordinaries (Australia): +0.4%

Chinese technology shares remained under pressure despite additional PBOC support measures, including a 25 bp cut to the stock buyback relending rate to 1.00%. Hong Kong and India showed relative strength while South Korean chip names retreated.

Europe (Nov 3):

STOXX Europe 600: -0.5%
DAX (Germany): -0.7%
FTSE 100 (UK): -0.7%
CAC 40 (France): -0.3%
FTSE MIB (Italy): -0.6%
IBEX 35 (Spain): -0.8%

European markets are broadly lower, with technology and industrial shares under pressure. Concerns about France’s fiscal outlook persist, while rebounding oil prices and weaker metals prices are weighing on UK miners.

Economic Data

Overnight releases:

South Korea October CPI: +2.8% yr/yr (expected +2.9%; prior +2.9%); +0.2% m/m (expected +0.3%; prior +0.3%)
RBA raised cash rate 25 bps to 4.85% from 4.60%, as expected (three policymakers dissented in favor of no change)
New Zealand September Building Consents: -7.9% m/m (prior +5.3%)
Hong Kong Q3 GDP: +1.9% q/q (prior -0.6%); +5.2% yr/yr (prior +4.3%); September Retail Sales +6.4% yr/yr (prior +5.6%)
Switzerland October CPI: +0.2% m/m (expected 0.0%; prior 0.0%); +1.5% yr/yr (expected +1.3%; prior +1.0%)
France September Government Budget Balance: EUR -159.2 billion (prior EUR -159.6 billion)

On deck for today (10:00 AM ET):

September Business Inventories (prior 0.4%)
September Factory Orders (Briefing.com consensus 1.2%; prior 0.1%)
September JOLTS Job Openings (Briefing.com consensus 7.100M; prior 7.079M)

Looking Ahead

Tonight: U.S. midterm election results — a pivotal catalyst for fiscal policy, tax, and regulatory expectations depending on the final balance of power in Congress.
Tuesday after close: AMD reports Q3 results, closely watched given Intel’s disappointing report last week and ongoing AI-infrastructure skepticism.
Wednesday: Midterm election results work their way into market pricing.
This week: Roughly 20% of the S&P 500 is scheduled to report quarterly earnings, keeping the cadence active.
Friday: October Employment Report — the week’s capstone data point, converging with election outcomes and earnings season to drive broader market direction.