Situation Awareness: Bearish regime, but a relief bid is rebuilding. The tape is being driven by a snap-back in semiconductors and AI-related names after Bloomberg walked back yesterday’s AI scare — OpenAI is now expected to hit or exceed $70 billion in annualized revenue by year-end, countering the Financial Times’ $50 billion figure that cratered chips on Thursday. S&P 500 futures are +31 to 7,847, Nasdaq futures +252 to 31,221, Dow futures +61 to 51,554; SPY/QQQ/IWM cash levels are data unavailable this morning, so lean on futures and breadth for positioning. Easing crude (WTI -$0.95 to $90.54) and softer global sovereign yields add a tailwind. Trade mode: selective and defensive — let the open prove the rebound before chasing. Today’s calendar is light, pinned on the 10:00 ET prelim Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Regime context — 24.86% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 177 bulls vs. 290 bears. The 5-day trend is fractured: the 40SMA breadth ticked up (+2.4pp) while the 20SMA collapsed from 35% to 19% (-16pp), signaling a narrow, tech-dependent tape rather than broad repair.
SIP: CEG TWST PCVX CRBU
- What’s working: the Continuation/2LYNCH scan is rich at 24 signals — healthy breadth despite the bearish breadth gauge — led by ADI, FICO, SNOW, FDS and HUBB. The Reversal scan adds 9 names (MSTR, SWKS, META, QCOM, APLD), concentrated in beaten-down chips.
- Leading sectors: live trending data is offline (market closed) and the ATR sector feed is empty; from Thursday’s close, Energy (+2.9%), Consumer Staples (+2.1%) and Financials (+0.9%) led — a defensive/cyclical mix, not a growth-led advance.
- Key event: 10:00 ET prelim University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (consensus 48.1; prior 48.1) is the only scheduled U.S. data point.
- Market read: Thursday saw a 3.4% SOX plunge drag the Nasdaq -1.3% and S&P -0.5%, yet breadth improved beneath the surface (advancers beat decliners ~8-to-5 on the NYSE). Losses were concentrated in tech/AI, not uniform — today’s futures confirm that read.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals fired — stand down on that bucket today.
- SIPS: ADI, SNOW, FICO — top Continuation swing candidates with constructive structure.