Situation Awareness: Bearish. Futures are firmly lower with S&P 500 contracts trading 36 points below fair value and Nasdaq futures 251 below, as a renewed spike in oil (+4.5% to $92.22) and a fresh leg higher in Treasury yields (10-yr +5 bps to 5.33%) undo yesterday’s late-day mega-cap rescue. Index levels (SPY/QQQ/IWM) are unavailable in today’s data, so lean on breadth and futures for positioning. Trade mode: selective and defensive. Middle East escalation — reduced Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic, Iran attacks, and White House strike options — is calling the shots alongside a global sovereign-bond selloff. Regime context — 22.76% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 10 bulls vs. 5 bears. The 5-day trend shows deteriorating internals, with the 20-day breadth gauge collapsing from 35% to 18% day-over-day, confirming narrowing, fragile leadership.
SIP: CRBU PCVX AVBP SYRE
- What’s working: scans are bone-dry — zero Continuation/2LYNCH, zero Delayed 9M, and just a single Reversal signal (META $720.50, -0.1%). A dead-signal tape in a down market says sit on your hands.
- Leading sectors/themes: market closed — no live Trending Sector or Theme data, and Sector Volatility ATR is empty. From yesterday’s tape: Health Care (+1.1%) and Consumer Staples (+0.1%) led; Industrials (-2.1%), Materials (-1.5%), and Real Estate (-1.3%) lagged.
- Key event: oil +4.5% on Hormuz disruption plus a $22 bln 30-yr bond reopening at 13:00 ET — twin inflation/supply pressure points for yields.
- Market read: Wednesday’s -0.2% S&P close masked a far weaker tape — Russell 2000 -1.3%, Mid Cap 400 -1.6% — as the rebound was concentrated in mega-caps only. That divergence breaks down further if yields and oil keep climbing.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today — watchlist empty, a breadth red flag.
- SIPS: no Continuation candidates — nothing qualifies for swing entry.