Situation Awareness: Cautious Bearish regime masked by a strong bounce open. Futures point firmly higher — S&P 500 futures +57 at 7,769, Dow futures +463 at 52,542, Nasdaq futures +336 at 30,254 — as crude oil sheds roughly 2.6% to under $98 and the 10-year yield eases to 4.95%. But the tape underneath remains narrow: last week the Nasdaq gained 0.7% while the DJIA fell 1.7%, its worst week since March, and the Russell 2000 dropped 1.5%. SPY, QQQ and IWM cash levels are unavailable in today’s data, so lean on futures and yields for the read. Trade mode: selective and opportunistic — respect the rally but don’t chase weak breadth. Today’s tape is driven by the oil/yield tailwind, hopeful positioning into Thursday’s Trump-Xi meeting, and Bessent’s “successful” pre-summit talks; there is no U.S. economic data of note. Regime context — 23.13% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 241 bulls vs. 213 bears. The 5-day trend shows breadth deteriorating — 40-SMA participation slid to 23.13% from 25.76% and 20-SMA to 36% from 41% — confirming a narrowing, mega-cap-led advance beneath the surface.
SIP: PSKY IMOS SKHY CCJ
- Working: Continuation/2LYNCH scan is rich with 13 signals — chip-heavy (ADI +3.6%, AMAT +6.5%, UCTT +4.6%, WDC +4.1%). Reversal thin at 2 (CMG, RBLX). No Delayed 9M signals.
- Live sector/theme trend data is offline (market closed); ATR volatility feed is empty. Leadership read from scans points to CHIPS and COMPUTER hardware carrying the load.
- Key event: Trump-Xi summit Thursday Sept 24 anchors the week; Fed’s hawkish 25bp hike to 3.75-4.00% still frames rate risk.
- Market read: Friday closed mixed with chips lifting stocks off lows; the down-week for the Dow and small caps says the internals are fragile despite today’s gap up.
- DEP watchlist: no D9M signals today — stand down on that scan.
- SIPS: AMAT, ADI, WDC — semis leading the continuation list into a supportive tape.