Market Summary
U.S. equity futures are pointing to a sharply higher open on this pre-market Monday session, with S&P 500 futures up +53.00 points and Nasdaq futures surging +321.00 points versus fair value as of the 08:03 ET update. The rally in futures is being driven by a synchronized pullback in crude oil (WTI down roughly 2.6-2.7% to below $98/bbl) and Treasury yields (10-yr down 5 bps to 4.95%), providing a favorable risk backdrop after a choppy prior week. Bitcoin has also pushed through $85,000, its best level since January, adding to the risk-on tone.
This follows a volatile week in which the major averages diverged meaningfully: the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.7% week-to-date, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%, and the DJIA tumbled 1.7% — its worst week since March. Small- and mid-caps fared even worse, with the Russell 2000 down 1.5% and the S&P Mid Cap 400 off 1.7%, underscoring a market where mega-cap tech and AI infrastructure names carried the tape while breadth deteriorated sharply beneath the surface. Friday’s session capped the week with a late recovery — the S&P 500 (+0.2% to 7,650.50) and Nasdaq (+0.4% to 26,543.59) closed modestly higher while the DJIA (-0.2% to 51,682.64) lagged, as a 2.8% surge in the PHLX Semiconductor Index and strength in memory/storage names (SNDK, STX) offset weakness in materials and rate-sensitive sectors.
Key themes heading into the new week include the aftermath of last week’s hawkish FOMC rate hike (fed funds now 3.75-4.00%, unanimous 12-0 vote), continued U.S.-Iran tensions following a Houthi attack on Riyadh over the weekend, and anticipation of Thursday’s Trump-Xi summit after Treasury Secretary Bessent characterized his pre-summit meeting with Vice Premier He Lifeng as “successful.” Notably, WaveFinder breadth data shows a “Very Bearish” primary sentiment reading with only 31% of stocks above their 20-day moving average and 22.72% above their 40-day moving average, highlighting a narrow, mega-cap-driven advance despite the constructive futures picture this morning.
Market Snapshot
Futures (Pre-Market, 08:03 ET):
- S&P 500 futures: +53.00 vs. fair value
- Nasdaq futures: +321.00 vs. fair value
Friday’s Close (18-Sep-26):
- DJIA: 51,682.64 (-95.40, -0.2%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 26,543.59 (+104.25, +0.4%)
- S&P 500: 7,650.50 (+12.74, +0.2%)
Week-to-Date Performance:
- Nasdaq Composite: +0.7%
- S&P 500: -0.1%
- Russell 2000: -1.5%
- DJIA: -1.7%
- S&P Mid Cap 400: -1.7%
Market Breadth (WaveFinder, 21-Sep-26):
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bearish
- Primary Bulls: 773 | Bears: 957
- Above 20-day SMA: 31%
- Above 40-day SMA: 22.72%
- 4% Sentiment: Neutral | 40 SMA Sentiment: Neutral
Sector Performance
Friday’s Session (18-Sep-26) — Only 3 of 11 sectors finished positive:
1. Information Technology: +0.8% (semiconductor and storage leadership)
2. Industrials: +0.5%
3. Consumer Discretionary: flat (unchanged)
4. Financials: +0.1%
5. Communication Services: -0.7%
6. Materials: -1.1% (NUE, STLD guidance misses)
7. Utilities: -1.3%
Week-to-Date Sector Performance:
1. Health Care: +1.8%
2. Communication Services: +1.2%
3. Information Technology: +1.1%
4. Financials: -1.3%
5. Consumer Discretionary: -1.5%
6. Industrials: -1.5%
7. Materials: -1.9%
8. Real Estate: -2.3%
9. Utilities: -3.0%
WaveFinder Sector ATR/Volatility (21-Sep-26):
- Health Care: +1.59% (rising, P42) — top performer
- Energy: +0.22% (falling, P0)
- Communication Services: +0.17% (falling, P5)
- Technology: -0.21% (falling, P79)
- Financials: -1.23% (falling, P0)
- Consumer Staples: -1.47% (flat, P0)
- Materials: -1.70% (falling, P0)
- Consumer Discretionary: -2.02% (falling, P5)
- Industrials: -2.27% (falling, P5)
- Real Estate: -3.09% (flat, P0)
- Utilities: -3.39% (falling, P0) — bottom performer
Key Earnings & Movers
- Novo Nordisk (NVO): $41.21, -$2.03 (-4.7%) — Despite CagriSema achieving 12.4% weight loss vs. 9.1% for tirzepatide at week 60 in a Phase III diabetes trial (meeting superiority endpoint), shares fell.
- Paramount Skydance (PSKY): $10.88, +$0.67 (+6.6%) — Reported in settlement talks with states to secure approval for its Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition.
- Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD): $29.81, +$2.01 (+7.2%) — Rallied on PSKY acquisition settlement progress.
- Coinbase Global (COIN): $194.25, +$20.28 (+11.66%) Friday — Boosted by SEC’s “Innovation Exemption” and Bitcoin surge.
- Robinhood Markets (HOOD): $119.82, +$10.01 (+9.12%) Friday — Similarly lifted by crypto tokenization news.
- Sandisk (SNDK): $1,791.82, +$177.43 (+10.99%) Friday — AI data-center demand and tight storage supply.
- Seagate Technology (STX): $858.79, +$55.66 (+6.93%) Friday — Storage sector strength.
- Coherent (COHR): $317.36, +$21.38 (+7.22%) Friday — Announced expansion of Pluggable Optical Line System for AI/cloud infrastructure.
- Nucor (NUE): $248.38, -$16.76 (-6.32%) Friday — Guided Q3 EPS to $5.55-5.65, below consensus.
- Steel Dynamics (STLD): $235.26, -$10.09 (-4.11%) Friday — Guided Q3 EPS to $5.34-5.38, below consensus.
- Netflix (NFLX): $71.77, -$3.54 (-4.70%) Friday — Wells Fargo downgrade to Underweight from Equal Weight.
- Amazon (AMZN): $253.71, +$2.52 (+1.00%) Friday — Standout gainer in consumer discretionary.
Stock Spotlight
T-Mobile (TMUS) is this session’s most notable structural story, having touched a fresh 52-week low before a modest bounce, with shares now down more than 30% from their 52-week high of $242.37. The decline reflects a broader reassessment of TMUS’s growth trajectory as competitors Verizon and AT&T post improving results. TMUS’s Q2 (June) report in late July triggered the initial slide after postpaid net account additions fell 13% yr/yr to 277,000, with management guiding to just 250,000 postpaid net adds in Q3 amid churn pressure from legacy-to-premium plan migrations.
Competitively, Verizon posted 184,000 postpaid phone net adds in Q2 — its best Consumer Q2 in five years — with Consumer churn improving 6 bps yr/yr to 0.84%. AT&T added 432,000 postpaid phone net adds (up 8%), with churn improving to 0.86% and record combined fiber/fixed wireless net adds. Both rivals are leaning into converged wireless-broadband bundles. Longer-term, satellite connectivity adds another layer of uncertainty: while TMUS currently partners with SpaceX on Starlink and has a spectrum JV in principle with VZ and T, SpaceX’s broader mobile ambitions — bolstered by its pending acquisition of up to 65 MHz of spectrum from EchoStar (expected to close in 2027) — represent a potential long-term competitive threat. Despite the pressure, TMUS remains highly cash-generative and raised its cash flow outlook in Q2, suggesting the selloff reflects moderating subscriber momentum rather than a deterioration in fundamentals.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Treasuries are rallying to start the week, sending yields lower across the curve on the back of falling oil prices and optimism ahead of the September 24 Trump-Xi summit.
Yield Levels (21-Sep-26, vs. Friday):
- 2-yr: 4.71% (-3 bps)
- 3-yr: 4.78% (-5 bps)
- 5-yr: 4.81% (-5 bps)
- 10-yr: 4.95% (-5 bps)
- 30-yr: 5.29% (-4 bps)
Friday’s close saw the 10-yr note yield at 4.998%, near 2026 highs, after a week in which shorter tenors underperformed (2s10s spread tightened 8 bps to 26 bps). This morning’s move reverses some of that pressure, aided by Treasury Secretary Bessent’s characterization of his meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng as “successful,” including discussion of AI incident cooperation and trade negotiations. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) noted inflation is present “in all aspects of the economy,” keeping the inflation debate alive even as yields ease today.
Commodities
- WTI Crude: $97.57-97.69/bbl, -2.6% to -2.7% (also cited down ~2.5% to under $98)
- Brent Crude: $100.94/bbl, -2.8%
- Gold: $4,398.80/ozt, -0.6%
- Copper: $6.81/lb, +1.8%
Oil’s retreat is a primary driver of this morning’s risk-on tone in equities and the rally in Treasuries, easing geopolitical risk premium even as President Trump threatened renewed action against Iran while leaving the door open to diplomacy at this week’s UN General Assembly.
Overseas Markets
Asia-Pacific (mostly higher on lower oil/yields):
- Hang Seng (Hong Kong): 25,042.71, +291.90 (+1.2%)
- Shanghai Composite: +1.0%
- Kospi (South Korea): +1.7%
- Sensex (India): +0.8%
- All Ordinaries (Australia): flat
- Nikkei (Japan): Closed for Respect for the Aged Day holiday (markets closed through September 23)
Europe:
- London and Frankfurt opened with a positive bias.
FX:
- USD/JPY: +0.2% to 157.18-157.19
- EUR/USD: flat at 1.1487
- GBP/USD: flat at 1.3394
- USD/CNH: flat at 6.6928-6.6938
- USD/INR: -0.2% to 95.865
Economic Data
There is no U.S. economic data of note scheduled for today’s session.
International data released overnight:
- South Korea September exports (days 1-20): +78.3% yr/yr (prior 56.0%)
- South Korea September imports (days 1-20): +26.7% yr/yr (prior 19.0%)
Looking Ahead
- Tuesday, Sept. 22: President Trump scheduled to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in New York.
- Thursday, Sept. 24: Trump-Xi Jinping meeting expected, keeping U.S.-China trade relations in focus.
- UN General Assembly (this week): Potential for President Trump to meet Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions.
- AI Czar announcement: President Trump indicated he will announce an AI “Czar” in the near future.
- Economic calendar: Relatively light this week following last week’s FOMC decision.
- Anthropic IPO: Now expected in November rather than October, per The Wall Street Journal.
- Watch list: Continued monitoring of oil price direction amid Strait of Hormuz shipping activity and Houthi attack fallout, as well as any follow-through on the AI-driven mega-cap/semiconductor leadership that has powered the Nasdaq’s relative outperformance.