Situation Awareness: Cautious, with an improving recovery bias. Thursday’s session snapped a three-day losing streak as the AI and mega-cap complex roared back — the S&P 500 (+1.1%) reclaimed 7,600 and its 50-day moving average (7,614.9), while the Nasdaq Composite (+1.7%) led on a 3.1% surge in the PHLX Semiconductor Index. Futures point mostly higher this morning (S&P +7 @ 7,714, Nasdaq +99 @ 29,842) as crude extends its pullback and yields ease, though the Dow lags (-45 @ 52,175). Trade mode: selective and constructive — respect the rebound but keep leverage measured with a hawkish Fed still in the driver’s seat. Today’s context is a tug-of-war between falling oil/AI momentum on one side and a Fed that just delivered a “hawkish hike” and signaled more to come on the other; two Fed speakers (Bowman, Schmid) and three economic prints round out a light calendar. Regime context — 31.97% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA (up from 28.38%), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 363 bulls vs. 91 bears. The 5-day trend was down three then turned up sharply the last session, signaling early recovery as breadth expands.
SIP: DAIC QXL HPK PAAI
- Continuation/2LYNCH is the only firing scan — 12 signals led by AMD (+6.4%), MU (+5.5%), SNDK (+6.2%), FSLY (+4.4%). Delayed 9M and Reversal scans are empty.
- Live sector/theme data unavailable (market closed); prior session leadership: Information Technology (+2.2%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.4%), Utilities (+0.9%). Financials (-0.1%) were the sole decliner.
- Key event: Fed raised the funds rate to 3.75-4.00% with a 12-0 vote and dot plot showing 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more hike this year — a genuine hawkish hike.
- Market read: yesterday’s tape was a decisive mega-cap-led rebound with advancers beating decliners ~2-to-1, but leadership stayed narrow (semis, AI infrastructure). Broadening is needed to confirm.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today — stand down on that book.
- SIPS: AMD, MU, SNDK — semiconductor continuation setups with the strongest tape support.