Market Summary
U.S. equity futures are pointing to a mostly higher open on Friday, September 18, with S&P 500 futures trading 9.00 points above fair value and Nasdaq futures up 89.00 points as of 8:03 AM ET, building on Thursday’s sharp rebound. The rally follows a session in which the S&P 500 (7,637.76, +85.95, +1.1%) reclaimed its 50-day moving average, the Nasdaq Composite (26,439.34, +439.87, +1.7%) led the charge, and the DJIA (51,778.04, +316.14, +0.6%) also posted a solid gain, snapping a three-session losing streak tied to Wednesday’s hawkish post-FOMC selloff.
Thursday’s advance was powered by a resurgence in AI infrastructure and mega-cap technology names, with the information technology sector surging 2.2% and the PHLX Semiconductor Index jumping 3.1%. A retreat in Treasury yields (10-yr down 6 bps to 4.95%) and crude oil provided a tailwind for rate-sensitive groups including utilities and homebuilders, while financials (-0.1%) lagged as banks digested this week’s rate hike. Pre-market Friday, the same themes are intact: WTI crude is sliding toward $101/bbl (its potential third straight daily decline), and lower yields continue to underpin risk appetite ahead of a lighter economic slate.
Despite the bullish futures setup, market breadth signals remain cautious. WaveFinder’s Primary Sentiment reading is Bearish, with only 813 bulls versus 944 bears, and just 21% of stocks trading above their 20-day moving average and 26.06% above their 40-day moving average — a reminder that Thursday’s rally was concentrated in mega-cap and semiconductor leadership rather than broad-based participation. Fed speakers Michelle Bowman and Jeffrey Schmid are on deck this morning as investors continue parsing the implications of Wednesday’s 25-bp hike and Chair Warsh’s hawkish commentary.
Market Snapshot
Thursday Close (17-Sep-26):
- DJIA: 51,778.04 (+316.14, +0.6%)
- S&P 500: 7,637.76 (+85.95, +1.1%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 26,439.34 (+439.87, +1.7%)
- Russell 2000: +0.6%
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +0.6%
YTD Performance:
- Russell 2000: +15.9%
- Nasdaq Composite: +13.7%
- S&P 500: +11.6%
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +10.8%
- DJIA: +7.7%
Pre-Market Futures (18-Sep-26, 08:03 ET):
- S&P futures: +9.00 vs. fair value
- Nasdaq futures: +89.00 vs. fair value
- (Earlier 05:41 ET levels: S&P +20.00, Nasdaq +113.00)
Breadth (WaveFinder, 18-Sep-26):
- Primary Sentiment: Bearish (Bulls 813 / Bears 944)
- 4% Sentiment: Neutral | 40 SMA Sentiment: Neutral
- % Above 20-day SMA: 21%
- % Above 40-day SMA: 26.06%
- Thursday NYSE advance/decline: ~2-to-1 in favor of advancers; Nasdaq advance/decline: better than 2-to-1
Sector Performance
Ranked by Thursday (17-Sep) session performance (per Briefing.com):
1. Information Technology: +2.2% — Semiconductor strength led (PHLX Semiconductor Index +3.1%); Intel, AMD, ARM standout gainers
2. Consumer Discretionary: +1.4% — Benefited from mega-cap growth strength
3. Utilities: +0.9% — Outperformed as Treasury yields retreated
4. Communication Services: +0.6% — Lifted by Alphabet and Meta despite mixed components
5. Energy: +0.6% — Higher despite lower crude prices
6. Consumer Staples: Unchanged (0.0%) — Lagged as growth led the tape
7. Financials: -0.1% — Sole declining sector; banks pressured post-rate hike
Health Care, Industrials, Materials, and Real Estate performance figures were not specified in available briefing data.
WaveFinder Sector Volatility (ATR, 18-Sep-26):
- Health Care: 1.73% (flat, P42) — highest volatility reading
- Energy: 0.32% (falling, P5)
- Communication Services: 0.22% (flat, P5)
- Technology: -0.51% (falling, P74)
- Consumer Staples: -1.08% (flat, P11)
- Materials: -1.19% (falling, P11)
- Financials: -1.23% (falling, P0)
- Consumer Discretionary: -1.78% (falling, P16)
- Real Estate: -2.62% (flat, P21)
- Industrials: -2.40% (falling, P0)
- Utilities: -2.82% (falling, P11) — lowest volatility reading
Key Earnings & Movers
Pre-Market Movers (18-Sep):
- Netflix (NFLX) — $72.97, -2.34 (-3.2%): Wells Fargo downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight, $77 price target
- Nucor (NUE) — $261.50, -3.64 (-1.37%): Issued Q3 EPS guidance below FactSet consensus; steel mills/products expected to improve, raw materials earnings expected to decline
- Coherent (COHR) — $300.38, +4.40 (+1.49%): Expanded optical line systems portfolio with new C-band amplifier for AI data center networks and 800G coherent optics
- SK hynix (SKHY) — $184.91, +1.92 (+1.05%): Launched SK hynix Ventures to invest in AI computing, data centers, and optical interconnect technologies
Thursday’s Notable Movers:
- Generac (GNRC) — $207.20, +32.09 (+18.33%): Amazon long-term supply deal for data center generators
- Intel (INTC) — $108.80, +7.75 (+7.67%): Extended rally on SK hynix chip production talks
- ARM Holdings (ARM) — $264.90, +20.92 (+8.57%): CEO comments on securing supply for ~$2 billion demand
- AMD — $545.09, +32.59 (+6.36%): Broad semiconductor strength
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI) — $40.35, +3.50 (+9.50%): AI server/data-center strength
- HPE — $61.06, +4.38 (+7.73%): AI server strength
- Workday (WDAY) — $199.28, +11.52 (+6.14%): Software sector strength
- Oracle (ORCL) — $150.58, +7.42 (+5.18%): Software sector strength
- NVIDIA (NVDA) — $219.34, +5.44 (+2.54%): CEO Jensen Huang discussed plans to double chip sales at UK event
- Fluence Energy (FLNC): Under pressure after second guidance cut in FY26; revenue outlook cut to ~$2.4 bln, adjusted EBITDA loss widened to ~$(200) mln
- Intuit (INTU): Little changed after reaffirming Q1/FY27 guidance at Investor Day
Stock Spotlight
Generac (GNRC): +18.33% on Amazon Data Center Partnership
Generac surged to $207.20 (+$32.09, +18.33%) on Thursday, ranking among the best-performing S&P 500 components after announcing a long-term supply agreement with Amazon (AMZN 251.19, +5.23, +2.13%) to provide backup power generators for Amazon’s data centers, with contract value up to $8 billion. As part of the deal, Generac issued Amazon a warrant to acquire up to 1,693,745 shares at an exercise price of $200.9266 per share; 307,954 warrant shares vested immediately, with the remainder vesting in tranches tied to cumulative gross payments Generac receives from Amazon under the supply agreement.
The deal underscores the intensifying AI infrastructure buildout theme that dominated Thursday’s session, as data center operators lock in critical power and compute-adjacent supply chains. The Amazon partnership positions Generac as a direct beneficiary of hyperscaler capital expenditure, joining other AI-infrastructure-adjacent names such as CoreWeave and Nebius (both cited for raising compute capacity pricing) in validating robust near-term demand visibility. The equity-linked warrant structure also aligns Amazon’s incentives with Generac’s execution on the contract, a detail likely to support continued investor interest in the name as data center power demand remains a dominant secular narrative.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Thursday Close (17-Sep-26):
- 10-Yr Note: 4.95% (-6 bps)
- 2-Yr Note: 4.69% (-4 bps)
- Treasuries rallied on overnight oil price pullback and Bank of England’s announcement halting long-dated Gilt sales
Friday Pre-Market (18-Sep-26, 07:58 ET):
- 10-Yr Note: 4.965-4.97% (+2 bps)
- 2-Yr Note: 4.72% (+3 bps)
- 3-Yr Note: 4.80% (+4 bps)
- 5-Yr Note: 4.83% (+3 bps)
- 30-Yr Bond: 5.30% (unchanged)
Key Drivers: Thursday’s gains are being partially challenged overnight as shorter tenors give back yesterday’s advance while the long bond outperforms. The Bank of Japan’s 25-bp hike to 1.25% (with two dissents) and Governor Ueda’s vague policy remarks pressured the yen. European session selling in equities and sovereign debt has also weighed on Treasury futures despite continued softness in energy prices. U.S. Dollar Index: +0.3% to 100.51. USD/JPY: +1.3% to 157.89. EUR/USD: -0.1% to 1.1459. GBP/USD: -0.1% to 1.3344. USD/CNH: -0.1% to 6.6988.
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil: $101.30/bbl, -0.6% (on track for third consecutive daily decline; Thursday settled at $102.03, -0.4%)
- Gold: $4,415.30/ozt, +0.4%
- Copper: $6.658/lb, -0.1%
- Silver: Not reported in available data
Crude weakness continues to provide relief to broader risk sentiment, easing one of the week’s key headwinds alongside retreating Treasury yields.
Overseas Markets
Asia (Overnight):
- Nikkei (Japan): 65,018.95, +882.70 (+1.40%) — Bank of Japan raised policy rate 25 bps to 1.25% as expected
- Kospi (South Korea): +2.7%
- Hang Seng (Hong Kong): 24,750.78, +146.50 (+0.60%)
- Shanghai Composite (China): +0.9%
- Sensex (India): Unchanged
- ASX All Ordinaries (Australia): +0.1%
Markets finished mostly higher overnight despite BOJ’s hawkish move, with South Korea’s Kospi the standout gainer. Key drivers included reports the U.S. will delay tariffs on excess manufacturing capacity until after Chinese President Xi’s visit, and RBA Governor Bullock’s comments that rising global bond yields have not been disorderly, though some inflation risks are emerging.
Europe (Current Session):
- STOXX Europe 600: -0.5%
- Germany’s DAX: -0.9%
- U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.8%
- France’s CAC 40: -0.9%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB: -1.2%
- Spain’s IBEX 35: -1.1%
European indices are on course for a weaker finish to the week amid inflation commentary and fiscal developments. Key headlines include a reported Iranian strike on another tanker in the Strait of Hormuz (though oil prices retreated), French PM Lecornu seeking EUR54 billion in budget savings for 2027, U.K. Chancellor Healey lobbying for inclusion in the EU’s “Made in Europe” policy, and ECB officials — including President Lagarde — emphasizing a meeting-by-meeting approach while guarding against second-round inflation effects.
Economic Data
Thursday’s Releases (Reviewed):
- Initial Jobless Claims (week ending 9/12): 196,000, down 10,000 (consensus: 209,000) — signals a low-firing labor market environment
- Continuing Claims (week ending 9/5): 1.730 million, down 39,000
- Housing Starts (August): 1.275 million SAAR, -2.6% m/m (consensus: 1.325 million); single-unit starts +7.6%
- Building Permits (August): 1.394 million SAAR, -2.7% m/m (consensus: 1.410 million) — leading indicator flat-to-down across regions
- Philadelphia Fed Index (September): 37.8, down from 47.4 in August (consensus: 35.0)
Overnight International Data:
- China August FDI: -5.3% YTD (prior: -6.2%)
- Japan August National CPI: 0.1% m/m, 1.9% yr/yr; Core CPI 1.7% (expected 1.8%)
- South Korea August PPI: 0.2% m/m, 7.9% yr/yr
- New Zealand August FPI: 0.3% m/m; trade deficit NZD1.35 bln (expected deficit NZD1.775 bln)
- Eurozone July Current Account: surplus EUR27.6 bln (expected EUR30.7 bln)
- U.K. August Retail Sales: 0.5% m/m (expected -0.2%), 2.4% yr/yr (expected 1.9%) — notable beat
- Germany August PPI: 1.1% m/m (expected 0.6%), 4.6% yr/yr (expected 4.1%)
Today’s Remaining U.S. Calendar:
- 9:15 AM ET: August Industrial Production (consensus: 0.3%)
- 9:15 AM ET: August Capacity Utilization (consensus: 76.4%; prior: 76.3%)
- 10:00 AM ET: August Leading Economic Index (consensus: 0.2%; prior: 0.2%)
Looking Ahead
- Fed Speakers (Today): Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid are scheduled to speak this morning as markets continue to assess the policy outlook following Wednesday’s rate hike and Chair Warsh’s hawkish press conference.
- Economic Data (Today): August Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization at 9:15 AM ET, followed by August Leading Economic Index at 10:00 AM ET.
- Market Focus: Investors will watch whether the Treasury market’s rebound holds, as continued yield relief remains a key support for the AI/mega-cap rally; a resumption of yield pressure could dampen the current bounce.
- Geopolitical Watch: Reports of an Iranian strike on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and prior indications that President Trump may meet with Gulf leaders next week regarding the Iran conflict remain in focus for oil markets.
- China Relations: U.S. tariff implementation on excess manufacturing capacity has reportedly been delayed until after Chinese President Xi’s visit — a development markets will continue to monitor.