Situation Awareness: Bearish regime, but a relief bid is testing it. The tape is caught between a hawkish Fed and a second straight session of falling oil — futures point sharply higher (S&P 500 +60 @ 7,683, Dow +380 @ 52,295, Nasdaq +304 @ 29,561) as mega-cap and semiconductor names lead the bounce off yesterday’s post-FOMC retreat. Index technical levels for SPY/QQQ/IWM are unavailable in today’s data, so lean on futures and breadth for structure. Trade mode: selective and defensive — let the open prove the rebound before chasing. The dominant force is rates: Warsh delivered a “hawkish hike” and yields spiked, but Treasuries are catching a bid this morning alongside a slide in crude back toward $100. Regime context — 28.38% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 160 bulls vs. 234 bears. The 5-day trend shows breadth contracting two straight sessions (40SMA 28.38% vs 32.52%), confirming narrow, defensive participation beneath the futures pop.
SIP: AXON ALMU DLHC TGL
- What’s working: the Continuation/2LYNCH scan fired 12 signals — decent breadth given the weak internals — heavily concentrated in chips (ALAB, AXTI, CBRS) and hardware (DELL). Reversal scan is thin at 2 (AMPX, LUNR); Delayed 9M is empty.
- Leading sectors: live Trending Sector/Theme and ATR volatility data are unavailable (market closed). Signal concentration points to CHIPS and COMPUTER hardware as today’s leadership, echoing the semiconductor-led futures bounce.
- Key event: FOMC hiked 25 bps to 3.75-4.00% on a unanimous 12-0 vote — first hike since July 2023 — with 16 of 18 officials penciling in at least one more this year.
- Market read: yesterday’s early gains were erased by Warsh’s press conference; the 2-yr jumped to 4.73% and the 10-yr tagged 5.01%. Today’s rebound is a rate-relief and oil-relief bounce, not a breadth turn.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today — nothing qualifies.
- SIPS: ALAB, DELL, LITE — chip and hardware continuation setups riding the semi rebound.