Market Summary
U.S. equity futures are pointing sharply higher heading into Thursday’s open, with S&P 500 futures trading 78.00 points above fair value and Nasdaq futures up 372.00 points above fair value as of the 8:00 ET update — a notable acceleration from the 05:59 ET reading of +68.00 (S&P) and +328.00 (Nasdaq). Mega-cap technology and semiconductor names are leading the early bid, aided by a second consecutive down session for crude oil and a modest overnight rally in Treasuries.
The premarket strength follows a choppy, ultimately negative session on Wednesday, when the major averages reversed an initially positive move after the FOMC’s unanimous 12-0 vote to raise the fed funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% — the first hike since July 2023. The S&P 500 closed down 33.92 points (-0.4%) at 7551.81, the DJIA fell 631.21 points (-1.2%) to 51461.90, and the Nasdaq Composite finished essentially flat (-3.15 points) at 25999.47 after being up as much as 0.9% intraday. Selling accelerated during Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference, where his comment that “the plain fact is that inflation is too high, and has been for too long” was interpreted as a hawkish hike rather than a dovish one, reinforced by a dot plot showing 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more increase this year.
Market internals remain fragile heading into today’s session. WaveFinder breadth data shows a “Very Bearish” primary sentiment reading with bears (990) outnumbering bulls (768), and only 19% of stocks trading above their 20-day moving average and 24.38% above their 40-day moving average — evidence that Wednesday’s index-level weakness was broader than headline numbers suggested, led by financials and energy while technology and semiconductors held up better.
Market Snapshot
Wednesday’s Close (16-Sep-26):
- DJIA: 51,461.90 (-631.21, -1.2%)
- S&P 500: 7,551.81 (-33.92, -0.4%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 25,999.47 (-3.15, ~flat)
- Russell 2000: -0.4%
- S&P Mid Cap 400: -0.6%
Year-to-Date Performance:
- Russell 2000: +15.2%
- Nasdaq Composite: +11.8%
- S&P 500: +10.3%
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +10.2%
- DJIA: +7.1%
Thursday Premarket Futures (08:00 ET):
- S&P futures vs. fair value: +78.00
- Nasdaq futures vs. fair value: +372.00
Market Breadth (WaveFinder, 17-Sep-26):
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bearish
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Bearish
- Primary Bulls/Bears: 768 / 990
- Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 19%
- Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 24.38%
Sector Performance
Ranked by Wednesday’s session performance (Briefing.com Industry Watch):
1. Information Technology: +0.1% — held gains better than most, though it surrendered nearly all of an earlier larger advance
2. Health Care: flat
3. Utilities: flat
4. Industrials: -0.1%
5. Financials: -1.6% — among the day’s worst performers; Invesco KBW Bank ETF -2.9% as yields spiked post-FOMC
6. Energy: -3.0% — bottom of the standings as WTI crude reversed sharply lower
Note: Explicit session performance for Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Consumer Staples, Materials, and Real Estate was not specified in available data. WaveFinder volatility (ATR) readings for context: Technology -1.04% (flat trend), Consumer Discretionary -2.30% (falling), Communication Services +0.55% (flat), Financials -1.24% (falling), Industrials -2.45% (falling), Health Care +1.08% (falling), Energy +0.24% (falling), Consumer Staples -0.99% (falling), Materials -1.25% (falling), Utilities -3.28% (falling), Real Estate -3.16% (falling).
Within technology, the PHLX Semiconductor Index added +0.6%, led by AMD (+1.65%) and Intel (+4.03%), though it too faded from session highs.
Key Earnings & Movers
- Generac (GNRC): 229.31, +54.20 (+30.95%) — Long-term supply agreement with Amazon for up to $8 billion in generator purchases for data centers
- Amazon (AMZN): 249.12, +3.16 (+1.28%) — Counterparty to GNRC deal, received vesting warrant
- Intel (INTC): 101.05, +3.91 (+4.03%) — Reuters reports SK hynix in exploratory talks over U.S. chip fab capacity at Intel’s Ohio project
- AMD: 512.50, +8.30 (+1.65%) — Semiconductor strength broadly
- Axon (AXON): 468.42, +26.34 (+5.96%) — Recovered from prior session’s sharp retreat
- Snap (SNAP): 5.88, +0.17 (+2.98%) — Launched SPECS Intelligence AI service
- J.B. Hunt (JBHT): 236.73, -36.32 (-13.30%) — Warned Q3 EPS could fall 5-10% sequentially on fuel-cost headwinds
- Microsoft (MSFT): 490.30, -6.82 (-1.37%) — DJIA laggard
- IBM: 237.60, -10.77 (-4.34%) — DJIA laggard
- Coinbase (COIN): 164.51, -7.60 (-4.42%) — Pressured after Clarity Act failed to advance in Senate
- Robinhood (HOOD): 104.42, -6.03 (-5.46%) — Crypto-related weakness
- Salesforce (CRM): 247.88, -2.66 (-1.06%) — Investor Day guidance of at least $63B FY2030 revenue
- Trip.com (TCOM): Trading higher on Q2 non-GAAP EPS beat (RMB7.27 vs. RMB5.94 consensus), though revenue growth slowed and a RMB5.18 bln antitrust penalty drove a GAAP loss
Stock Spotlight
Generac Holdings (GNRC) is the standout premarket mover, surging 54.20 points (+30.95%) to 229.31 after entering a long-term supply agreement with Amazon tied to up to $8 billion of generator purchases for Amazon’s data center buildout. Initial deliveries under the arrangement are expected to total $2.4 billion across 2027 and 2028, positioning Generac as a key power-infrastructure supplier to the AI/data center capacity expansion theme. As part of the deal, Amazon received a warrant whose vesting is largely tied to the aggregate value of payments made under the agreement — aligning Amazon’s incentives with the scale of future purchasing.
The deal underscores the growing capital intensity of AI infrastructure buildouts, extending beyond chips and servers into backup power and grid-support equipment. Amazon shares themselves rose a more modest 3.16 points (+1.28%) to 249.12, reflecting the market’s view that while the deal is strategically important for Amazon’s data center reliability, the scale of commitment is far more transformative for Generac’s growth trajectory than for Amazon’s overall business.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Treasuries are firmer in early Thursday trade, extending an overnight rally that began in evening trade Wednesday and continued into fresh session highs. As of the 07:53 ET update:
- 10-Yr yield: 4.974% (+6/32 in price)
- 2-yr: -2 bps to 4.72%
- 3-yr: -2 bps to 4.79%
- 5-yr: -3 bps to 4.83%
- 10-yr: -4 bps to 4.97%
- 30-yr: -3 bps to 5.32%
This follows a volatile Wednesday session in which the front end sold off sharply after the FOMC hike while the long end outperformed: the 2-yr note settled at 4.73% (+7 bps), the 10-yr at 5.01% (+1 bp), and the 30-yr at 5.35% (-2 bps). The FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections showed the median 2026 GDP estimate rising to 2.3% (from 2.2%), PCE inflation rising to 3.7% (from 3.6%), core PCE to 3.4% (from 3.3%), and the median fed funds rate estimate for this year climbing to 4.1% (from 3.8%) — consistent with market pricing for potentially two more hikes before 2027. Thursday’s rally is being driven by an overnight pullback in crude oil and renewed strength in global technology stocks.
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil: $99.96/bbl, -$2.47 (-2.4%) as of 8:00 ET — second consecutive down session; overnight reading showed -1.7% to $100.76/bbl. Decline tied to Axios report that President Trump is expected to meet Gulf leaders next week on the Iran conflict. Wednesday’s session saw WTI settle at $102.41 (-3.2%) after a report that a Saudi pipeline damaged by Houthi attacks is expected to restart within days.
- Gold: $4,365.00/ozt, -0.5%
- Copper: $6.60/lb, +1.4%
- Silver: Not available in current data
Overseas Markets
Asia-Pacific (mixed session):
- Nikkei 225 (Japan): 64,136.25, +213.30 (+0.3%)
- Hang Seng (Hong Kong): 24,604.29, -109.50 (-0.4%)
- Shanghai Composite (China): -0.4%
- Sensex (India): Unchanged
- Kospi (South Korea): Unchanged
- ASX All Ordinaries (Australia): +0.4%
Key drivers: Hong Kong Monetary Authority followed the Fed with a 25-bp hike to 4.25%; China’s foreign minister called for U.S.-Iran rationality following a meeting with Iran’s foreign minister, while Shanghai oil rose above $135/bbl.
Europe (higher across the board):
- STOXX Europe 600: +0.5%
- DAX (Germany): +0.6%
- FTSE 100 (U.K.): +0.6%
- CAC 40 (France): +0.4%
- FTSE MIB (Italy): +0.6%
- IBEX 35 (Spain): +0.6%
Key drivers: Deeper pullback in oil prices and tech-sector strength; Bank of England voted 6-3 to hold its bank rate at 3.75%, though Governor Bailey said a hike is possible if the Iran conflict is prolonged; ECB’s Makhlouf said second-round inflation effects are not being observed; Switzerland raised its 2026 growth forecast to 1.7% from 0.9%.
Economic Data
Overnight/International releases:
- Hong Kong August Unemployment Rate: 3.8% (prior 3.7%)
- Singapore August trade surplus: SGD13.78 bln (prior SGD10.898 bln); non-oil exports +10.9% m/m (prior -0.3%), +46.2% yr/yr (expected 35.0%, prior 24.1%)
- New Zealand Q2 GDP: +0.2% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%, prior 0.9%); +2.6% yr/yr (expected 2.3%, prior 1.7%)
- Eurozone August CPI: +0.4% m/m; +3.2% yr/yr (expected 3.3%, prior 2.9%). Core CPI +0.2% m/m, +2.4% yr/yr, both as expected
- Swiss August trade surplus: CHF3.786 bln (prior CHF5.742 bln)
Yesterday’s U.S. data (16-Sep-26):
- MBA Mortgage Applications: -4.1% (prior -2.7%)
- Retail Sales (August): +1.2% m/m (consensus 0.9%, prior revised to -0.5% from -0.6%); ex-autos +1.4% (consensus 0.5%, prior revised to -0.2%)
- Import Prices: +0.7% m/m, +7.0% yr/yr
- Export Prices: +0.6% m/m, +8.6% yr/yr
Today’s pending U.S. releases (not yet out as of this report):
- 8:30 ET: August Housing Starts (consensus 1,325K, prior 1,239K)
- 8:30 ET: August Building Permits (consensus 1,410K, prior 1,443K)
- 8:30 ET: Weekly Initial Claims (consensus 209K, prior 206K)
- 8:30 ET: Continuing Claims (prior 1,774K)
- 8:30 ET: September Philadelphia Fed Index (consensus 35.0, prior 47.4)
- 10:00 ET: August Pending Home Sales (consensus 0.5%, prior -2.3%)
- 10:30 ET: EIA Natural Gas Inventories (prior +40 bcf)
Looking Ahead
Markets will digest a heavy U.S. data slate later this morning, including Housing Starts, Building Permits, weekly jobless claims, and the closely watched Philadelphia Fed Index (consensus 35.0, down sharply from 47.4 prior), followed by Pending Home Sales and natural gas inventories. Traders will continue parsing the fallout from Wednesday’s hawkish FOMC hike, with attention on whether Treasury yields stabilize following the overnight rally. Geopolitically, President Trump is expected to meet with Gulf leaders next week to discuss next steps in the Iran conflict — a development already weighing on crude oil prices. The Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy decision also remains in focus, with expectations for a rate hike aimed at shoring up the yen amid ongoing concerns about yen-based carry-trade unwinds.