Situation Awareness: Cautious Bearish. The tape is being squeezed between three vises — a 10-year note yield sitting right on 5.00%, WTI crude back above $102/bbl, and a fresh crack in the AI momentum trade after industry leaders (Amodei, Altman, Musk) called to “pace the frontier.” Equity futures point flat-to-lower ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision, with S&P futures -14 @ 7,680, Dow futures -140 @ 52,721, and Nasdaq futures -33 @ 29,416. Trade mode: selective and defensive — this is a wait-for-the-Fed tape, not a chase tape. The CME FedWatch Tool assigns a 92.5% probability to a 25-bp HIKE tomorrow to 3.75-4.00%, an unusual posture that flips the normal playbook. Regime context — 35.1% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 258 bulls vs. 343 bears. The 5-day trend shows a choppy down sequence with one relief bounce (Sep 11), and breadth deteriorated hard — stocks above the 20-SMA collapsed from 40% to 21% in a single session, confirming narrowing participation.
SIP: PLAY VEEA RFIL NCT
- What’s working: the Continuation/2LYNCH scan is moderately rich with 24 signals; Reversal is thin at 4. Software/cyber is the one offensive pocket, while chips are the pain trade.
- Leading sectors: market closed — no live sector/theme performance feed, and Sector Volatility ATR returned empty. Use yesterday’s read: communication services (+2.8%) and software (iShares GS Software ETF +5.0%) led; PHLX Semiconductor Index (-5.9%) and industrials (-1.4%) lagged.
- Key event: FOMC decision tomorrow (Sep 16) — near-certain rate HIKE with 10-yr yield testing 5.00%.
- Market read: yesterday was a sharp internal rotation masked by modest index losses — sell semis, buy cyber/defensives. Soft breadth says buying is selective, not broad.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals fired this session — nothing to force.
- SIPS: TSM, MSGS, PODD from the Continuation scan.