Situation Awareness: Bearish. Futures point to a modestly lower open with S&P 500 futures -5 at 7,772, Nasdaq futures -53 at 31,009, and Dow futures -16 at 51,461 — a muted start that masks a deeper problem: elevated Treasury yields near multi-decade highs and the narrowest leadership of the year. The 10-yr sits at 5.27% and the equal-weighted S&P 500 just logged its seventh consecutive losing week, so mega-cap and semis are the only thing holding the tape up. Trade mode: selective and defensive — this is a market where the index hides more than it reveals. Today’s calling cards are oil squirming near $90, the 10:00 ET ISM Services print, and a corporate-news vacuum that leaves the macro backdrop in charge. Regime context — 22.84% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 7 bulls vs. 1 bear. The 5-day trend is choppy and lower overall: the 40-day breadth ticked up to 22.84% from 21.65%, but the 20-day deteriorated to 26% from 29%, signaling the recent bounce is losing its footing.
SIP: IMOS CABO CYCU FLUX
- What’s working: nothing in the systematic scans — the Continuation/2LYNCH, Delayed 9M, and Reversal books are all empty today. That dry read is itself the signal: breadth is too thin to generate quality breakout setups.
- Leading sectors: live Trending Sector and Theme data is unavailable (market closed) and the ATR volatility table returned empty — defer sector reads to the cash open. Last week’s leadership was Information Technology (+1.4%) and the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+3.7%); laggards were Health Care (-2.7%) and Financials (-2.5%).
- Key event: September ISM Non-Manufacturing at 10:00 ET (consensus 55.7, prior 55.4) is the lone macro catalyst and will move yields directly.
- Market read: Friday rescued the week — all 11 sectors avoided losses on a soft payroll print — but the Equal-Weight still trailed, telling you the relief was shallow and concentrated.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals fired — stand down on that book today.
- SIPS: no Continuation candidates — swing setups are on hold until breadth confirms.