Situation Awareness: Cautious. Futures are pointing sharply higher into the open, powered by NVIDIA’s blowout after-hours print — revenue up more than 100% with strong Q3 guidance — that reignited the semiconductor and software complex, with S&P futures last +13 above fair value and Nasdaq futures +258. But look under the hood: breadth is quietly contracting, so this is a mega-cap-led, top-heavy bid rather than a broad advance. SPY, QQQ and IWM cash levels are (data unavailable) this morning, so lean on the futures signal, not fictional levels. Trade mode: selective and disciplined — chase the leaders that gapped on real numbers, but respect the thin participation. Today’s context: a supportive jobless-claims print (203K, below the 210K consensus), the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium tonight, and a Politico report that the Trump administration is weighing a sweeping new round of semiconductor tariffs — a direct swing factor over the very chip names driving the tape. Regime context — 55.23% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 128 bulls vs. 107 bears. The 5-day trend is deteriorating beneath the surface: the share of names above the 20-day SMA collapsed from 74% to 37% in a single session while 4% breakouts halved from 264 to 128, signaling narrowing leadership even as the index bid holds.
SIP: URBN PRE WKSP INTU
- What’s working: the Continuation/2LYNCH scan is rich with 25 signals — good depth — heavily skewed toward Energy. The Reversal scan is thin at 3, and Delayed 9M is empty, so momentum entries dominate over mean-reversion.
- Leading sectors: live sector and theme performance is offline (market closed), but the Continuation scan concentration points to Energy leadership (DINO, CVI, SM, KOS) with Metals (KALU) and Machinery (ITT) secondary.
- Key event: Jackson Hole Symposium opens tonight; Fed Chair Warsh delivers the keynote tomorrow morning — the week’s dominant macro catalyst.
- Market read: Wednesday’s tape finished flat-to-slightly-lower ahead of NVDA, with balanced breadth and Equal-Weight (+0.3%) beating cap-weight. Today the cap-weighted indices should gap up on NVDA, but the 37% above-20-SMA reading warns the rally may not broaden.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today — nothing qualifies, a caution flag on fresh episodic setups.
- SIPS: DINO, CVI, ITT — the cleanest Continuation swing candidates.