Market Summary
U.S. equity futures are pointing to a sharply higher open on Thursday, with S&P 500 futures trading 23.00 points above fair value and Nasdaq futures surging 276.00 points above fair value as of the 08:05 ET update. The bullish tone follows a blowout earnings report from NVIDIA (NVDA) after Wednesday’s close, which showed revenue growth of more than 100% year-over-year and Q3 guidance above consensus, reigniting momentum across the semiconductor complex. Strength is broadening beyond chips this morning, with software names Salesforce (CRM) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) and retailers Dollar General (DG) posting double-digit premarket gains following their own beat-and-raise quarters.
Wednesday’s cash session, by contrast, was a quiet, mixed affair as investors awaited NVIDIA’s results. The S&P 500 finished essentially flat at 7,675.70 (-1.58), the Nasdaq Composite slipped 21.10 points (-0.1%) to 26,151.24, and the DJIA shed 113.52 points (-0.2%) to close at 53,463.88. Beneath the surface, breadth was fairly balanced — the equal-weighted S&P 500 outperformed the cap-weighted index (+0.3%), and four of eleven sectors finished higher, led by industrials (+1.1%) on strength in courier names. July’s PCE inflation data showed the core rate holding at 3.3% year-over-year for a fifth straight month, doing little to shift the market’s rate-cut expectations for the September FOMC meeting (odds held near 36%, per CME FedWatch).
Looking ahead to today’s session, attention will remain on the wave of mega-cap tech and retail earnings while overseas markets flash a mixed picture — Asian equities were mixed (Kospi +1.5% on the NVDA halo effect; Nikkei, Hang Seng, and ASX All Ordinaries lower) while European bourses trade broadly lower, weighed down by weak guidance from Pernod Ricard and softness in financials. Treasury yields and oil are little changed, and the market’s focus is beginning to pivot toward the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which kicks off tonight ahead of Fed Chairman Warsh’s keynote address tomorrow.
Market Snapshot
Yesterday’s Close (26-Aug-26):
- DJIA: 53,463.88 (-113.52, -0.2%)
- S&P 500: 7,675.70 (-1.58, flat)
- Nasdaq Composite: 26,151.24 (-21.10, -0.1%)
This Morning’s Futures Indications (08:05 ET):
- S&P futures: +23.00 vs. fair value
- Nasdaq futures: +276.00 vs. fair value
2026 Year-to-Date Performance:
- Russell 2000: +21.1%
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +15.7%
- Nasdaq Composite: +12.4%
- S&P 500: +12.1%
- DJIA: +11.2%
WaveFinder Market Breadth (2026-08-27):
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bullish (Bulls 1,066 / Bears 649)
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Neutral
- 4% Sentiment: Neutral (Bulls 0 / Bears 0)
- % of Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 17%
- % of Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 51.4%
- 9-Month Bull Follow-Through: 0%
Sector Performance
Note: Reflects Wednesday’s (26-Aug) cash-session closing performance combined with current WaveFinder volatility (ATR) readings ahead of today’s open.
| Sector | Wed. Performance | ATR (Volatility) | Trend |
|—|—|—|—|
| Industrials | +1.1% | -0.68% | Falling (P11) |
| Information Technology | +0.4% | -0.99% | Falling (P32) |
| Energy | +0.3% | 2.35% | Falling (P68) |
| S&P 500 Equal Weight | +0.3% | — | — |
| Consumer Staples | N/A | 0.81% | Rising (P68) |
| Materials | N/A | 1.41% | Rising (P58) |
| Financials | N/A | 1.42% | Rising (P74) |
| Real Estate | N/A | -0.41% | Flat (P21) |
| Utilities | N/A | -1.84% | Falling (P16) |
| Communication Services | -0.7% | 3.36% | Rising (P95) |
| Consumer Discretionary | -0.6% | 0.29% | Flat (P16) |
| Health Care | -1.0% | 3.34% | Rising (P84) |
Industrials paced Wednesday’s advance on broad-based strength, led by courier names, while health care lagged as Moderna (MRNA) and Eli Lilly (LLY) weighed on the group. Communication services and health care currently carry the highest volatility readings per WaveFinder ATR data (both rising), suggesting elevated price sensitivity in those groups heading into today’s session.
Key Earnings & Movers
Premarket Gainers (Post-Earnings):
- NVIDIA (NVDA): $221.85, +$12.19 (+5.8%) — Beat EPS by $0.13, beat revenue expectations (growth of over 100% y/y), guided Q3 revenue above consensus.
- Salesforce (CRM): $226.85, +$21.21 (+10.3%) — Beat EPS by $2.63, revenue in-line, guided Q3 and FY27 EPS/revenue above consensus.
- CrowdStrike (CRWD): $206.20, +$17.02 (+9.0%) — Beat EPS by $0.02, beat revenue, guided Q3 EPS in-line with revenue above consensus; guided FY27 EPS and revenue above consensus.
- Dollar General (DG): $136.00, +$13.22 (+10.8%) — Beat EPS by $0.47, revenue in-line, raised FY27 guidance.
Wednesday’s Notable Movers:
- Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF): $147.68, +$38.78 (+35.61%) — Surged on Q2 beat-and-raise; EPS of $4.17 (including $1.75 tariff-refund benefit) topped estimates even excluding the benefit.
- C.H. Robinson (CHRW): $151.73, +$8.07 (+5.62%) — Top S&P 500 performer amid broad industrials/courier strength.
- Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS): $129.71, +$5.40 (+4.34%) — Rose despite a disappointing earnings report from Tuesday.
- Intuit (INTU): $345.88, -$11.58 (-3.24%) — Post-earnings weakness within software group.
- NIKE (NKE): $38.59, -$0.89 (-2.25%) — Extended retreat alongside other athletic apparel names.
- Moderna (MRNA): $149.66, -$9.17 (-5.77%) — Gave back gains from last week’s melanoma vaccine-driven rally.
- Eli Lilly (LLY): $1,190.03, -$43.63 (-3.54%) — Laggard within health care.
- Meta Platforms (META): $576.14, +$6.09 (+1.07%) — Volatile session tied to youth-safety settlement news.
Stock Spotlight
Meta Platforms (META) was the session’s most consequential story stock Wednesday, fluctuating between gains and losses after announcing a proposed settlement with a bipartisan coalition of 51 state and territorial attorneys general over claims that Facebook and Instagram harmed younger users. The agreement requires META to pay between $12.1 billion and $17.1 billion over ten years — the higher figure contingent on comparable settlements from rival platforms — while the company will record an approximately $10 billion Q3 legal expense not previously contemplated in its July outlook. Despite the sizable one-time charge, META maintained its Q3 revenue guidance of $61.0–$64.0 billion.
The market’s muted reaction reflects competing crosscurrents: META avoids a federal trial where potential penalties discussed by the parties were far larger than the settlement, and it spreads the cash burden over a decade. However, the $10 billion accrual adds to an already expensive year following a $2.4 billion Q2 legal charge and FY26 capex guidance of $130–$145 billion for AI infrastructure. New operational restrictions — including a two-hour daily platform limit, midnight-to-6 a.m. access curbs, and stronger age-assurance requirements — could affect teen engagement and Instagram’s long-term relevance, even as the deal resolves the multistate youth case without an admission of wrongdoing. META still faces thousands of related lawsuits from individuals, school districts, and governments.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Overnight/Current Levels (27-Aug-26, 08:00 ET):
- 2-yr: 4.22% (unchanged)
- 3-yr: 4.28% (-1 bp)
- 5-yr: 4.38% (unchanged)
- 10-yr: 4.658% (-1/32 price, essentially flat)
- 30-yr: 5.18% (-1 bp)
Wednesday’s Close (26-Aug-26):
- 2-yr: 4.22% (+2 bps)
- 3-yr: 4.29% (+3 bps)
- 5-yr: 4.38% (+3 bps)
- 10-yr: 4.66% (+3 bps)
- 30-yr: 5.19% (+1 bp)
Treasuries retreated Wednesday, pulling back from two days of gains in longer tenors, as July PCE data reinforced sticky inflation (headline and core both holding at 3.7%/3.3% y/y) and a $70 billion 5-year note auction drew softer demand than Tuesday’s 2-year sale. Overnight, futures made a couple of rally attempts but found resistance, drifting back toward Wednesday’s lows as markets digested NVIDIA’s blowout report. Focus now shifts to the Jackson Hole Symposium, which begins tonight, followed by Fed Chairman Warsh’s keynote address tomorrow morning. A $44 billion 7-year note auction is scheduled for 13:00 ET today.
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil: $82.47/bbl, +0.3%
- Gold: $4,650.30/ozt, -0.1%
- Copper: $6.564/lb, -0.5%
Oil prices are holding relatively stable this morning after Wednesday’s choppy session, which saw crude spike toward gains on reports of an Iran-Oman revenue-sharing arrangement for Strait of Hormuz traffic before settling essentially flat at $82.25/bbl (-0.1%).
Overseas Markets
Asia-Pacific (Mixed):
- Nikkei (Japan): 66,131.98, -130.20 (-0.2%)
- Hang Seng (Hong Kong): 25,565.74, -87.20 (-0.3%)
- Shanghai Composite (China): +1.1%
- Sensex (India): -0.7%
- Kospi (South Korea): +1.5% — outperformed on strong NVIDIA read-through
- ASX All Ordinaries (Australia): -1.0%
Key overnight news: Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino called for timely rate hikes without confirming a September vote. The Bank of Korea raised its policy rate 25 bps to 3.00%, as expected, with some policymakers eyeing two more hikes at a slower pace.
Europe (Mostly Lower):
- STOXX Europe 600: -0.3%
- DAX (Germany): +0.2%
- FTSE 100 (UK): -0.4%
- CAC 40 (France): -1.1% — underperformer on weak Pernod Ricard guidance and financials weakness
- FTSE MIB (Italy): -0.4%
- IBEX 35 (Spain): -0.5%
Technology stocks across Europe are outperforming following NVIDIA’s results. Fitch is scheduled to release its review of France’s sovereign credit rating tomorrow.
Economic Data
Overnight/International:
- China July Industrial Profit: +17.6% YTD (prior 18.7%)
- Australia Q2 Building Capex: +2.1% qtr/qtr (prior -3.3%); Q2 Private New Capex: -3.6% qtr/qtr (expected +0.8%; prior +6.9%); Q2 Plant/Machinery Capex: -8.9% qtr/qtr (prior +18.4%)
- Eurozone July Private Sector Loans: +3.1% yr/yr (expected +2.9%; prior +3.0%); July Loans to Nonfinancials: +4.4% yr/yr (prior +4.0%)
- Germany September GfK Consumer Climate: -26.6 (expected -29.5; prior -29.4)
- France July PPI: +1.1% m/m (prior -0.4%); +3.4% yr/yr (prior +2.8%); jobseeker total rose to 3.143 mln (prior 3.122 mln)
- Swiss Q2 Employment Level: 5.698 mln (prior 5.537 mln)
Wednesday’s U.S. Data:
- Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications: -1.0% (prior -0.4%)
- July Personal Income: +0.4% (consensus +0.2%; prior +0.2%)
- July Personal Spending: +0.2% (consensus +0.2%; prior +0.3%)
- July PCE Prices: +0.2% (consensus +0.1%; prior -0.1%); Core PCE: +0.2% (consensus +0.2%; prior +0.1%); Year-over-year rates held at 3.7% (headline) and 3.3% (core)
- Q2 GDP – Second Estimate: 1.5% (consensus 1.5%; prior 1.5%); GDP Deflator revised up to 6.4% (consensus 6.3%; prior 6.3%)
- July Durable Goods Orders: +1.1% m/m (consensus +0.5%; prior revised to +0.5% from +0.3%); ex-transportation +0.4% (consensus +0.5%; prior revised to +1.1% from +0.6%)
Today’s Scheduled U.S. Data (not yet released):
- 8:30 ET: Weekly Initial Claims (consensus 210,000; prior 206,000); Continuing Claims (prior 1.799 mln); July advance International Trade in Goods (prior -$101.5 bln); July advance Retail Inventories (prior 0.0%); advance Wholesale Inventories (prior 0.3%)
- 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior +16 bcf)
Looking Ahead
- 13:00 ET Today: $44 billion 7-year Treasury note auction results
- Tonight: Jackson Hole Economic Symposium begins
- Tomorrow (28-Aug-26): Fed Chairman Warsh delivers keynote address at Jackson Hole
- Tomorrow: Fitch’s scheduled review of France’s sovereign credit rating
- Continued focus on second-quarter earnings reports and guidance from retail and software names following this week’s beat-and-raise results from NVDA, CRM, CRWD, and DG
- Monitoring for any developments on the Trump administration’s reported consideration of new semiconductor tariffs (per Politico)
- Court approval process and implementation details for META’s proposed $12.1–$17.1 billion youth-safety settlement