Situation Awareness: Cautious. The tape is caught in a tug-of-war between a relentless semiconductor bleed and a firming broad market, but this morning futures are pointing to a rebound with the S&P set to open 21 points above fair value and the Nasdaq a strong 242 points above — the momentum trade is trying to heal ahead of NVIDIA’s report tomorrow after the close. Index levels are data unavailable this session, so we anchor to breadth and futures rather than SPY/QQQ SMA levels. Trade mode: selective and watchful — respect the chip weakness but note the broadening underneath. Today’s context is macro-light but event-heavy: oil is collapsing toward $82/bbl after the Iran “Operation Economic Outcast” sanctions, Treasury yields keep grinding lower on buyback news, and traders are positioning ahead of 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence and Jackson Hole later this week. Regime context — 54.43% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 133 bulls vs. 232 bears. The 5-day trend is mixed: the 40-SMA slipped -0.5pp while the 20-SMA rose +2.0pp, with the Bull/Bear 4% count flipping hard from 274/77 on 8/21 to 133/232 now — a clear near-term momentum deterioration.
SIP: GENB GEMI AVX DXST
- What’s working: Continuation/2LYNCH is thin at 5 signals (GOOG, GOOGL, LIN, VRSN, MGTX) — not a rich breakout tape. Reversal scan is heavier at 13, led by SLB, COHR, KLAC, LRCX — the chip names appearing on the reversal side reflects washed-out semis, not strength.
- Leading sectors: live trending data unavailable (market closed) and Sector Volatility ATR is empty. From yesterday’s tape, consumer staples (+1.8%) and financials (+1.2%) led while info tech (-1.6%) and semis (SOX -2.7%) lagged badly.
- Key event: NVIDIA earnings after Wednesday’s close is the week’s dominant catalyst; NVDA sits ~10% below its May record after seven straight down sessions.
- Market read: Yesterday was a split tape — DJIA +0.3% held up on staples/financials strength while chip selling dragged the Nasdaq -0.8%. Eight of eleven sectors were green; the damage was concentrated, not broad.
- DEP watchlist: No Delayed 9M signals fired — the momentum-persistence scan is empty, itself a caution flag.
- SIPS: GOOG, GOOGL, VRSN — the cleanest continuation candidates on the swing side.