Situation Awareness: Cautious. Equity futures are pointing to a higher open, underpinned by strong Microsoft earnings offsetting weakness in Meta Platforms and Qualcomm. Still, geopolitical tensions, rising long-term rates, and a mixed economic data release paint a complex picture. Trade mode: selective and defensive. Today’s specific context — a trove of Q2 GDP and June Personal Income/Spending data landed this morning, alongside continued fallout from recent FOMC hawkishness and ongoing military strikes between the U.S. and Iran. Regime context — 57.82% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 139 bulls vs. 514 bears. The 5-day trend shows a significant shift with much improved 20-day SMA breadth (+37.0pp), suggesting some underlying demand despite bearish overnight sentiment.
SIP: NEO PCSA NCRA FEIM
- What’s working: Continuation/2LYNCH is showing activity with 8 signals.
- Leading sectors: (Market closed — no live data); Leading themes: (Market closed — no live data). Instead, Sector Volatility (ATR) shows FINANCE active with CME and V in the 2LYNCH scan, and SOFTWARE prominently featured with NET, SNOW, and DDOG.
- Key event — The Bank of England leaving its key lending rate unchanged at 3.75%, as expected, provides some stability in European markets.
- Market read: Yesterday’s session saw a post-FOMC relief rally dissipate, with major averages finishing sharply lower. Higher oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and persistent weakness in semiconductors weighed heavily. Today’s early strength, led by Microsoft, offers a potential pivot, but underlying concerns persist.
- DEP watchlist: (No signals)
- SIPS: SNOW, DDOG, FNV