Situation Awareness: Cautious, but with a strong offensive lean underneath. The tape is being driven by a full-throated return of the AI trade — Microsoft’s +15.5% blowout and Lam Research’s +18% guide yesterday handed the baton to Amazon, up 11.4% pre-market on a 37% AWS growth print and a raised $220B CapEx plan, with the SMH semiconductor ETF up 2.8%. That’s colliding with a 7.6% gap-down in Apple on soft September guidance, which is capping the S&P — index-level, S&P futures sit essentially flat (-1.00 vs fair value) while Nasdaq futures rip +114. SPY/QQQ/IWM cash levels are data-unavailable this morning, so lean on breadth and futures for the read. Trade mode: selective and constructive — chase the momentum where volume confirms, but respect the split tape and the yen risk overhang. Today’s context is macro-heavy: BOJ held at 1.00% as expected, coordinated FX intervention lifted the yen, and Kospi exploded +17.9%, defusing the near-term carry-unwind fear. Regime context — 56.23% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 398 bulls vs. 174 bears. The 5-day trend turned sharply higher, with the bull/bear count flipping from 139/515 to 398/174 in a single session, signaling a decisive momentum reversal.
SIP: XRX RJET CMCO PHIN
- What’s working: the Continuation/2LYNCH scan is rich with 12 signals led by MSFT (RVOL 3.4), plus CBRS, SHIP, MELI and CRWD; the Reversal scan carries 6 names anchored by AAPL. No Delayed 9M signals firing.
- Leading sectors: live sector/theme performance is offline (market closed) and Sector Volatility ATR is empty; breadth proxies point to semis and software leadership after yesterday’s Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +8.2% and info-tech +5.2%.
- Key event: coordinated US/Japan/South Korea FX intervention plus BOJ hold at 1.00% neutralized the immediate yen carry-trade threat — Kospi +17.9%, Nikkei +4.0%.
- Market read: yesterday was a “return to the AI trade,” not just a dip-buy — mega-cap tech and semis carried the day and follow-through is bleeding into this morning’s futures.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today — watchlist deferred to Continuation names.
- SIPS: MSFT, MELI, CRWD from the Continuation scan.