Situation Awareness: Cautious. Semiconductor stress is the dominant force again — an 11% collapse in SK Hynix’s Korea-listed shares dragged the Kospi down 6.4% and the Nikkei down 2.8%, spilling into U.S. futures where S&P 500 futures sit -24 at 7,591 and Nasdaq futures -277 at 29,417, even as Dow futures hold +38 at 52,938 on a UNH-led defensive bid. Index ETF levels (SPY/QQQ/IWM) are data unavailable this morning, so lean on futures and breadth. Trade mode: selective and defensive — respect the chip drag, let the first hour show its hand around the 8:30 ET data. Today’s context is a full macro slate (June Retail Sales, Philly Fed, jobless claims), a broadening Q2 earnings season, rising global bond yields, and live Iran risk after the U.S. struck a sanctioned Iranian tanker. Regime context — 64.6% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 202 bulls vs. 213 bears. The 5-day trend is mixed: the 40 SMA ticked up (+1.4pp) while the 20 SMA slipped to 23% from 26%, signaling deteriorating short-term participation beneath a still-firm intermediate base.
SIP: AEHR SKHY PRE GRRR
- What’s working: the Continuation/2LYNCH scan is rich with 27 signals — healthy breadth despite the chip noise. Reversal is thin at 5 signals; Delayed 9M is empty.
- Leading sectors/themes: live daily sector and theme performance is unavailable (market closed) and the Sector Volatility ATR feed is empty — use the futures/breadth read instead.
- Key event: 8:30 ET June Retail Sales (consensus 0.3%) plus Philly Fed and initial claims land simultaneously — the tape is in wait-and-see mode ahead of them.
- Market read: yesterday mega-cap tech (AAPL +4.0%, MSFT +2.8%, GOOG +3.6%) absorbed a 2.1% PHLX Semi drop and closed the S&P +0.4%. Today the chips are re-testing that resilience with SK Hynix leading lower.
- DEP watchlist: no D9M signals today — nothing qualifies.
- SIPS: AAPL, META, RBLX from the Continuation scan lead the swing candidates.