Situation Awareness: Cautious Bearish. A geopolitical shock is calling the shots this morning — the U.S.-Iran ceasefire has collapsed, fresh strikes are reportedly four to five times larger than prior rounds, and Iran’s attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have driven WTI crude up 5.1% to $74.04, right at its 200-day moving average (74.18). S&P futures sit 42 points below fair value, Nasdaq futures 200 below, with semiconductors leading the retreat for a second straight day. Index data for SPY/QQQ/IWM is unavailable this morning, but the S&P 500 cash closed yesterday at 7,503.85, clinging just above the 7,500 line. Trade mode: selective and defensive — let the tape settle before committing capital. Regime context — 64.03% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, but the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows just 180 bulls vs. 424 bears with sentiment flashing Very Bearish. The 5-day trend is deteriorating fast: the share of stocks above the 20-day SMA collapsed from 68% to 33% in a single session, confirming a sharp near-term breadth breakdown.
SIP: ENLV CRNX SUGP
- What’s working: continuation/2LYNCH scan is thin with only 5 signals — energy leads (LNG, TRGP) as oil surges; the reversal scan (7 signals) is dominated by chip liquidation (SNDK, LRCX, MCHP, MU, TXN), a symptom, not an opportunity.
- Leading sectors (from signal flow, live sector data closed): ENERGY strength via LNG (+3.6%) and TRGP (+3.9%); defensive rotation continues into MACHINE/waste (RSG +3.7%) and RETAIL (BURL). Chips are the clear laggard theme.
- Key event: June FOMC minutes hit at 2:00 p.m. ET — the first meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — against a backdrop of rising inflation expectations and climbing yields.
- Market read: yesterday was orderly rotation (semis down, defensives up); today’s gap-down is being led by an exogenous oil shock, a different and more dangerous character.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today — breadth too weak to surface fresh momentum leaders.
- SIPS: LNG, TRGP, RSG — the only continuation setups aligned with the oil/defensive tape.