Situation Awareness: Bullish. Markets are driven by a massive geopolitical de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran, coupled with a historic IPO event (SpaceX) that is reshaping capital allocation in the tech sector. The tape is characterized by a “risk-on” rebound in semiconductors and a rotation out of energy as oil prices collapse. Trade mode: Aggressive breakout on the open, but selective regarding mega-cap volatility due to IPO liquidity drains. The 5-day trend turned up 3 of 5 days, signaling early recovery after mid-week geopolitical jitters. Regime context — 56.26% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 0 bulls vs. 0 bears (resetting after the weekend). The 5-day trend shows a consistent up sequence, confirming upward momentum following the Iran deal announcement.
SIP: ADBE RKLB NVDA SPCX
- What’s working: Continuation strategies are firing with 50 signals, indicating strong breadth in the rebound. The 2LYNCH setup is prevalent in semi-conductors and space-related names.
- Leading sectors: Information Technology (+2.9% yesterday), Industrials (+3.3% yesterday), Materials (+3.3% yesterday); leading themes: Space/IPO, Semiconductors, Defense.
- Key event — SpaceX IPO pricing at $135/share, valuing the company at $1.77 trillion, the largest in history.
- Market read: Yesterday’s tape saw a sharp intraday reversal from geopolitical fear to relief as the Iran deal materialized, sending oil down 3.25% to $84.47 and lifting the S&P 500 by 1.8%.
- DEP watchlist: RKLB, NBIS, ALAB (Space/IPO beneficiaries gapping up 4-6%).
- SIPS: ADI, SIMO, TER (Continuation signals in chips with strong volume profiles).