Closing SA — 2026-09-29

Situation Awareness: Correction. Tuesday closed with modest index-level losses — S&P 500 -0.2%, Nasdaq Composite -0.1%, DJIA -0.3%, Russell 2000 -0.4% — but the quiet tape masked another weak session beneath the surface, with only four of eleven S&P 500 sectors finishing higher. Semiconductor strength (PHLX Semi +1.3%) and a late-afternoon lift from NY Fed President Williams’ “no need for urgency” remarks rescued the averages from midday lows, even as the 30-year yield hit 5.62%, its highest since 2002, before fading. SPY/QQQ/IWM price and 200-day levels are unavailable in today’s data, so we lean on the briefing’s index percentages. Trade mode for tomorrow: selective and defensive — respect the narrow leadership and let PCE dictate. Elevated Treasury yields remain the dominant counterweight, and a plunge in crude (-3.4% to $89.26) offered little relief. Regime context — 18.5% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 18.3% prior day, regime held at Correction), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 152 bulls vs. 107 bears. The 5-day trend shows deteriorating internals, with the % above 20-SMA collapsing from 21% to 13% in a single session, confirming fragile participation despite firm headline indices.

SIP: CCL BE FICO AMD

• What’s working: Darvas Box led with 41 signals, Continuation (2LYNCH): 14, D9M: 7, Reversal Bullish: 4, 9M Catalyst: 2 — breakout setups still firing narrowly in chips and specialty names.
• Leading sectors: Utilities +0.43% (only clear gainer in scan data); leading themes: Foreign Banks +5.59%, Generic Drugs +4.62%, Pollution Control +3.88%.
• Key event: FICO -26.66% collapse after FHFA said Fannie/Freddie will adopt a single pricing grid incorporating VantageScore, ending FICO’s monopoly — the day’s defining stock story.
• Regime threading: morning SA called Correction (18.3%), closing is Correction (18.5%) — held; breadth barely budged at the 40-SMA level while 20-SMA deteriorated sharply.
• DEP watchlist: BE $292.49, AXTI $78.60, GLW $159.32, ORCL $138.13, AMAT $512.50.
• SIPS: TSM $456.80, ASML $1,833.48, ENTG $156.78 — chip-equipment continuation into strength.