Situation Awareness: Bearish regime beneath a deceptively green tech headline. Futures split hard — S&P 500 futures are down 36 at 7,768 and Dow futures are off 292 at 51,871, yet Nasdaq futures sit up 252 at 30,637 on an NVIDIA-led semi bid. The tape is being driven by two forces: a failed U.S.-Iran ceasefire that pushed crude up 3.5% to $95.63 and a bear-flattener in Treasuries with the 10-yr at 5.22% (+6 bps). Index technical levels are unavailable this morning — trade the futures gaps and yields, not phantom levels. Trade mode: selective and defensive, respect the narrow-leadership trap. Today’s context is entirely geopolitical and rate-driven — no U.S. economic data, but a 2pm ET Trump Oval Office announcement and Fed speakers bracket the session. Regime context — 26.33% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 11 bulls vs. 3 bears. The 5-day trend shows breadth collapsing hard, with the % above 20-SMA cratering from 66% to 30% day-over-day — a sharp deterioration confirming that participation is thinning fast under the surface.
SIP: STEM AESI FTHM JAGX
- What’s working: Nothing in the systematic scans — Continuation/2LYNCH, Delayed 9M, and Reversal are all empty. A dry scan environment demands patience, not force.
- Leading sectors: live sector performance is offline (market closed), and ATR volatility data is unavailable. Gap leadership from the tape favors Energy (CVX +1.6%, MPC +1.6%, VLO +1.5%, PSX +1.7%) on the oil spike; laggards cluster in Materials/miners (GFI -15.3%, RIO -2.0%, HBM -6.0%) and mega-cap comm services (META -3.1%).
- Key event: President Trump rejected Iran’s ceasefire proposal — oil +3.5%, yields higher, a risk-off geopolitical overhang.
- Market read: Friday closed the week with the S&P +1.2% and Nasdaq +2.1%, but that masked a Russell 2000 down 0.8% and equal-weight down 1.0%. The same narrow tape carries into today.
- DEP watchlist: No Delayed 9M signals firing today — stand down on this book.
- SIPS: No Continuation setups on the scan — no swing candidates qualify this session.