Closing SA — 2026-09-23

Situation Awareness: Correction. Wednesday saw a broad retreat as the S&P 500 (-0.8%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.1%), and DJIA (-0.7%) all closed sharply lower, with the Russell 2000 (-1.8%) hit hardest — a spike in Treasury yields (10-yr +14 bps to 5.11%) and rising crude (WTI +2.1% to $92.46) drove the selling after hot PMIs (Services 58.7, Manufacturing 57.0) stoked rate-hike fears; fewer than half of S&P 500 components now sit above their 200-day MA. Trade mode for tomorrow: selective and defensive — respect the yield/oil headwind and avoid rate-sensitive longs. Today’s defining context: October rate-hike odds jumped to 66.4% from 55.4% as Fed’s Barr flagged more tightening ahead. Regime context — 19.6% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 24.4% prior day, regime shifted from Bearish to Correction), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 59 bulls vs. 367 bears. The 5-day trend shows leadership narrowing sharply after a hot start to the week, confirming deteriorating breadth momentum.

SIP: ONON FSLY TLSI RCL

• What’s working today: Continuation (2LYNCH) fired 5 signals, D9M: 1 (FSLY), Reversal Bullish: 1 (CMG) — thin bullish participation as breadth collapsed.
• Leading sectors: Consumer Defensive (-0.36%), Industrials (-0.59%), Energy (-0.67%) held up best; leading themes: Tobacco (+4.25%), Education Services (+3.84%), Steel Producers (+2.76%).
• Key event: Rising yields + rising oil combo — the market’s most persistent macro headwind — triggered broad selling with decliners beating advancers >3-to-1 on NYSE and Nasdaq.
• Regime threading: morning SA called Bearish (24.4%), closing is Correction (19.6%) — shifted lower as the yield spike and hawkish Barr commentary accelerated distribution into the close.
• DEP watchlist: FSLY ($29.66, +13.7%, RVOL 4.0) is the lone D9M signal — enterprise software momentum bucking the tape.
• SIPS: KEYS ($353.57), HUBB ($463.84), ROK ($432.97) — continuation setups in electronics/machinery holding up on the down day.