Situation Awareness: Cautious — a narrow, mega-cap-led rally sitting on thin underlying breadth. The tape is being driven by two macro tailwinds: a sharp retreat in crude oil and easing Treasury yields, both feeding off diplomatic hope around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz plus constructive U.S.–China talks ahead of the September 24 Trump-Xi summit. S&P 500 futures sit +3 at 7,837, Dow futures +172 at 52,647, but Nasdaq futures are actually -10 at 30,775 after yesterday’s monster tech run — index cash levels and SMA structure are data unavailable this morning, so lean on the range read, not precise levels. Trade mode: selective and opportunistic — participate in leadership but respect that the move is concentrated. Today’s calls come from Trump’s 10:00 a.m. ET UN address, Gulf-state meetings on Iran, and the $69B 2-yr auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Regime context — 23.86% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 140 bulls vs. 75 bears. The 5-day trend turned up, with % above the 20-SMA vaulting from 36% to 70% and breakdowns collapsing — signaling early recovery after the hawkish-hike shakeout, even as deep breadth stays thin.
SIP: PSKY ARM NUAI QNME
- What’s working: the Continuation/2LYNCH scan is thin with just 2 signals (FSLY, LNG); Delayed 9M and Reversal scans are empty — a dry signal environment that argues for patience over aggression.
- Leading sectors: live Trending Sector/Theme and ATR data are unavailable (market closed); yesterday’s leadership came from information technology (+2.5%), communication services (+3.9%), and semiconductors (PHLX +4.3%), with energy (-2.5%) at the bottom on the oil slide.
- Key event: President Trump addresses the UN General Assembly at 10:00 a.m. ET, followed by Gulf-state meetings on Iran — headline risk cuts both ways for oil and yields.
- Market read: Monday was a broad-feeling rally driven by a narrow cast — AMD, INTC, META, NVDA — so respect the tape but don’t confuse index strength with breadth health.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals fired — nothing to stage here today.
- SIPS: FSLY ($27.42, +14.9%, RVOL 2.0) and LNG ($274.98, +2.5%) are the only continuation swing candidates.