Situation Awareness: Cautious. The session saw a decisive “buy-the-dip” rebound as tech leadership, specifically semiconductors, overwhelmed the hawkish FOMC hangover and geopolitical fears, driving the Nasdaq to a +1.9% close. Trade mode for tomorrow: Selective and defensive due to the Juneteenth holiday closure. Today’s defining context was the market’s ability to ignore Fed Chair Warsh’s “higher-for-longer” rhetoric in favor of the Intel-Apple partnership and easing Iran tensions. Regime context — 54.62% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 53.37% prior day, regime held at Cautious), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 373 bulls vs. 112 bears. The 5-day trend turned up 3 of 5 days, signaling early recovery momentum despite the mid-week volatility.
SIP: INTC MU AMZN GOOG META
- What’s working today: Continuation signals fired strongly in semiconductors (2LYNCH: 9 signals), while D9M momentum scans highlighted high-volume breakouts in tech and energy transition names.
- Leading sectors: Information Technology (+2.7%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.8%), Communication Services (+1.1%); leading themes: Semiconductor Manufacturing (+2.17%), Residential/Commercial Building (+2.6%), Medical Research Equipment (+7.06%).
- Key event — President Trump signing the 60-day MOU with Iran, which temporarily eased energy supply fears and allowed rate-sensitive cyclicals to rally.
- Regime threading: morning SA called Cautious (53.4%), closing is Cautious (54.6%) — held steady as the breadth improved but failed to breach the 65% threshold required for a full Bullish regime.
- DEP watchlist: BE ($328.78), TSM ($461.92), GLW ($195.10), SMCI ($30.66), PHM ($126.96).
- SIPS: INTC ($133.99), MU ($1133.99), BE ($328.78).
Market Breadth — 2026-06-18
| Sentiment 4% | Very Bullish | 40SMA | Bearish |
| Bull 4% | 373 | Bear 4% | 112 |
| % > 20 SMA | 58% | % > 40 SMA | 54.62% |
| Bull 9M | 43 | Bear 9M | 13 |