Situation Awareness: Cautious. Markets surged on the U.S.-Iran peace deal, with the DJIA hitting fresh all-time highs and the Nasdaq Composite rallying 3.1% as oil prices retreated $3.98 to $80.90. Trade mode for tomorrow: Selective and aggressive on tech leadership, but monitor for post-news exhaustion. Today’s defining context was the geopolitical resolution driving a “risk-on” rotation into mega-cap growth and semiconductors. Regime context — 56.13% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 60.1% prior day, regime held at Cautious), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 436 bulls vs. 189 bears. The 5-day trend turned up 3 of 5 days, signaling early recovery momentum despite the narrowing breadth.
SIP: NVDA WDC MU SPCX TSEM
- What’s working today: Momentum and breakout strategies fired with 18 Continuation signals and 7 D9M signals, led by semiconductor strength.
- Leading sectors: Information Technology (+3.4%), Communication Services (+2.4%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.9%); leading themes: Generic Drugs (+10.29%), Internet Network Solutions (+1.55%), Database Software (+1.35%).
- Key event — U.S.-Iran peace deal announcement sparked a $3.98 drop in oil and a broad market advance, with the DJIA securing fresh record highs.
- Regime threading: morning SA called Cautious (60.1%), closing is Cautious (56.1%) — held steady as breadth improved but remained below the 65% bullish threshold.
- DEP watchlist: NVDA at $212.46 (reclaimed 50-day SMA), WDC at $653.53, MU at $1087.99, TSEM at $286.86, SPCX at $192.50.
- SIPS: PLTR at $134.65 and ON at $125.85 show strong continuation setups with institutional support.
Market Breadth — 2026-06-15
| Sentiment 4% | Very Bullish | 40SMA | Neutral |
| Bull 4% | 436 | Bear 4% | 189 |
| % > 20 SMA | 93% | % > 40 SMA | 56.13% |
| Bull 9M | 86 | Bear 9M | 17 |