Situation Awareness: Cautious. Geopolitical de-escalation on Iran triggered a massive intraday reversal, turning a choppy open into a broad-based rally as oil prices collapsed and tech bought the dip. Trade mode for tomorrow: Selective and opportunistic, focusing on momentum continuation in semis and airlines while monitoring the SpaceX IPO debut. Today’s defining context was the shift from “war premium” to “deal optimism,” validating a “oil down, rates down, stocks up” narrative. Regime context — 55.89% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 52.3% prior day), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 551 bulls vs. 76 bears. The 5-day trend turned up decisively after a mid-week tech selloff, signaling a potential short-term recovery.
SIP: NVDA MU UAL TSLA SPCX
- What’s working today: Continuation signals fired strongly with 43 signals (2LYNCH) and 35 signals (D9M), while Reversal Bullish provided 10 setups.
- Leading sectors: Technology (+2.56%), Industrials (+2.8%), Basic Materials (+3.2%); leading themes: Semiconductor Equipment (+7.03%), Airlines (+6.9%), Aerospace & Defense (+6.28%).
- Key event — President Trump called off strikes on Iran after a deal was reached, sending crude oil futures down $2.12 to $87.81.
- Regime threading: morning SA called Cautious (52.3%), closing is Cautious (55.9%) — held steady but improved breadth suggests the rally has legs if the deal holds.
- DEP watchlist: LUNR, RDW, FLY, ASYS, AMAT.
- SIPS: ARGX, TER, RDW.
Market Breadth — 2026-06-11
| Sentiment 4% | Very Bullish | 40SMA | Bullish |
| Bull 4% | 551 | Bear 4% | 76 |
| % > 20 SMA | 34% | % > 40 SMA | 55.89% |
| Bull 9M | 58 | Bear 9M | 5 |