Situation Awareness: Cautious. Stocks moved lower in broad fashion after UAE intercepts Iranian missiles, causing a spike in oil prices and weighing on stocks. Trade mode for tomorrow: selective and defensive. Geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices pressured risk assets today. Regime context — 64.18% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 69.62% prior day, regime shifted from Bullish to Cautious), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 151 bulls vs. 186 bears. The 5-day trend shows a consistent down sequence, confirming downward momentum.
SIP: FSTR HTCO AKAN BZAI
- What’s working today: SIP momentum signals; strategy signal counts — 2LYNCH: 15, D9M: 15, Reversal: 15
- Leading sectors: Energy (+1.8%); leading themes: Revenue, Marketshare, NewProduct
- Key event — Escalation in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, causing oil prices to spike.
- Regime threading: morning SA called Bullish (69.62%), closing is Cautious (64.18%) — failed, geopolitical tensions dragged sentiment down.
- DEP watchlist: ASAN, AXTI, FIG
- SIPS: COKE, EVH, FFIV
Market Breadth — 2026-05-04
| Sentiment 4% | Bearish | 40SMA | Bearish |
| Bull 4% | 151 | Bear 4% | 186 |
| % > 20 SMA | 40% | % > 40 SMA | 64.18% |
| Bull 9M | 20 | Bear 9M | 16 |