Market Summary

U.S. equity futures point to a mixed open on Thursday, November 5, with S&P futures +12.00 vs. fair value and Nasdaq futures -251.00. This follows Wednesday’s broad post-midterm relief rally, in which the Dow surged 1,569.40 points (+3.0%) to 53,356.33, its best session since April 2025. The S&P 500 gained 119.70 points (+1.6%) to 7,688.69, just shy of its 50-day moving average (7,693). The Nasdaq Composite added 364.50 points (+1.4%) to 25,756.90. The VIX fell 19.4% to 16.78.

Democratic wins in both chambers of Congress, plus President Trump’s acknowledgment of the results, eased political uncertainty. Hopes for bipartisan action on affordability, including potential tariff relief and lower energy prices, added support. Crude oil settled $7.93 lower (-8.3%) at $88.23/bbl, down more than 15% for the week, on easing Iran tensions. Treasury yields fell to multi-week lows.

Leadership rotated sharply. Consumer discretionary (+4.3%) led, with homebuilders and discount retailers strong, while energy (-4.7%) lagged by a wide margin. Semiconductors, neocloud names, and AI infrastructure stocks were the weak spot on concerns that Democratic control could slow data center buildout. That weakness carries into premarket, with SMH down 3.4%.

Market Snapshot

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 53,356.33, +1,569.40 (+3.0%)
S&P 500: 7,688.69, +119.70 (+1.6%)
Nasdaq Composite: 25,756.90, +364.50 (+1.4%)
CBOE VIX: 16.78, -19.4%
Premarket futures (07:55 ET): S&P +12.00 vs. fair value; Nasdaq -251.00 vs. fair value
WaveFinder breadth: Primary sentiment Bearish, with 767 bulls vs. 1,092 bears. 4% sentiment Neutral (0 bulls/0 bears). 40 SMA sentiment Bullish. 9M bulls and bears both 0, with 0% bull follow-through.
Percent above moving averages: 48% above the 20 SMA; 63.85% above the 40 SMA.

Breadth data is mixed: price action was strong Wednesday, but the primary WaveFinder read remains bearish.

Sector Performance

Wednesday’s session, ranked by performance (Briefing.com):
1. Consumer Discretionary: +4.3%
2. Financials: +3.5% (record high)
3. Real Estate: +3.2%
4. Materials: +3.1%
5. Health Care: +3.0% (record high)
5. Communication Services: +3.0%
5. Consumer Staples: +3.0% (record high)
8. Information Technology: +0.6%
9. Industrials: -1.1%
10. Energy: -4.7%

Utilities were not given a Briefing.com performance figure in the data provided.

WaveFinder sector ATR readings:

Technology: -2.78% (falling, P0)
Consumer Discretionary: 2.75% (rising, P100)
Communication Services: -0.04% (rising, P100)
Financials: 1.63% (rising, P100)
Industrials: 0.60% (rising, P95)
Health Care: 3.34% (rising, P100)
Energy: -1.16% (falling, P0)
Consumer Staples: 3.74% (rising, P100)
Materials: 2.92% (rising, P89)
Utilities: 3.64% (rising, P95)
Real Estate: 2.12% (rising, P100)

Volatility is rising across most sectors, while Technology and Energy are falling at the zero percentile.

Key Earnings & Movers

Premarket

AppLovin (APP): 325.50, +53.75 (+19.78%), sharply higher on earnings and guidance.
Toyota (TM): 217.00, +17.54 (+8.79%), after raising its fiscal-year operating profit forecast by ¥500 billion despite a lower revenue outlook. First-half net income rose 26.1%.
Qualcomm (QCOM): 156.30, -16.89 (-9.75%), despite narrowly beating Q4 estimates, on in-line Q1 guidance.
VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): -3.4%.

Wednesday

Dollar Tree (DLTR): 147.00, +12.93 (+9.64%)
Dollar General (DG): 141.64, +11.12 (+8.52%)
McDonald’s (MCD): 280.22, +17.18 (+6.53%), on improving U.S. comp trends.
Microsoft (MSFT): 555.80, +34.81 (+6.68%)
Amazon (AMZN): 266.03, +15.34 (+6.12%)
3M (MMM): 193.95, +16.90 (+9.55%), on a PFAS claims resolution and a new $6 billion buyback.
AMD: 488.78, +4.88 (+1.01%), on a strong Q3 and raised 2027 outlook.
CVS Health (CVS): 79.96, -11.45 (-12.53%), on plans to split into two public companies by 1H 2028.
GE Vernova (GEV): 832.85, -85.35 (-9.30%)
Comfort Systems (FIX): 1,089.89, -195.24 (-15.19%)
Roundhill Neocloud ETF (NCLD): 13.99, -1.40 (-9.10%), a record low.
iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF: +7.6%.
PHLX Semiconductor Index: -3.1%.

Stock Spotlight

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) delivered a strong Q3 that was overshadowed by the sector selloff. Adjusted EPS jumped 74% y/y to $2.09, and revenue rose 44.7% to a record $13.38 billion. Data Center revenue rose 97% y/y and 27% sequentially to a record $8.5 billion, or 64% of total revenue. Volume shipments of MI455X GPUs began, with Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Oracle bringing first Helios racks online. Non-GAAP gross margin was 56%, and operating margin expanded to 29%.

Guidance was strong. Q4 revenue is guided to $16.49-17.51 billion, about 66% y/y growth at the midpoint, with gross margin near 55% on a higher mix of lower-margin AI accelerators. AMD now expects 2027 revenue growth above 80%, up from its prior outlook of above 70%, with server CPU revenue roughly doubling. Weak spots were Client revenue (+7% y/y to $2.9 billion, but -4% sequentially on higher memory costs) and Gaming (-40% y/y to $773 million). AMD is planning for double-digit declines in PC unit shipments in 2027. Shares closed at 488.78, +1.01%, after a volatile session.

Bond Market & Treasuries

Treasuries rallied Wednesday, with yields at their lowest closing levels in eight weeks on the plunge in oil and expectations of a faster end to the Iran conflict. Overnight, the market is little changed.

Wednesday’s closing yields: 2-yr 4.59% (-3 bps), 3-yr 4.64% (-4 bps), 5-yr 4.69% (-5 bps), 10-yr 4.89% (-6 bps), 30-yr 5.28% (-4 bps).

Early Thursday: 2-yr 4.60% (+1 bp), 3-yr 4.65% (+1 bp), 5-yr 4.69% (+1 bp), 10-yr 4.89% (unchanged), 30-yr 5.27% (-1 bp).

Early gains faded after the Bank of England’s 25 bp hike to 4.00% and a rebound in oil. The U.S. Dollar Index is little changed at 101.61, after falling 0.3% to 101.59 Wednesday. Next week’s refunding auctions are $58 billion 3-yr, $42 billion 10-yr, and $25 billion 30-yr, with sizes expected steady for several quarters. ECB’s Nagel said a hike will likely be needed in December. Bank of Japan September minutes showed members agreed that more rate hikes are needed.

Commodities

WTI Crude: $89.48/bbl, +1.5% premarket, after settling Wednesday at $88.23 (-$7.93, -8.3%), its lowest level since late August.
Gold: $4,128.90/oz, +1.4%.
Copper: $6.395/lb, -0.5%.
Silver: No data provided.

Overseas Markets

Asia

Nikkei: -1.8% (61,077.9, -1,110.70)
Hang Seng: +3.7% (24,796.98, +877.50)
Shanghai Composite: +0.1%
Sensex: +2.6%
Kospi: -5.3%
All Ordinaries: +2.8%

Chip-heavy markets in Japan and South Korea fell on concerns about potential U.S. restrictions on AI data centers. Chinese shares were supported by policy measures, including roughly $11.5 billion in state-backed ETF purchases and over CNY200 billion in buyback loan applications.

Europe

STOXX Europe 600: +0.5%
DAX: +0.8%
FTSE 100: +0.6%
CAC 40: +0.7%
FTSE MIB: +0.3%
IBEX 35: +1.4%

Europe was supported by lower oil and yields, while tech and defense stocks stayed weak after a German defense company cut its earnings outlook. The Bank of England hiked 25 bps to 4.00% in an 8-1 vote and projects CPI near 5% by mid-2027.

Economic Data

Overseas releases

Eurozone September PPI: +2.5% m/m (expected +2.5%), +11.1% y/y (expected +10.9%; prior +8.3%).
Germany September Factory Orders: +4.4% m/m (expected +4.6%; prior -10.1%).
France September Industrial Production: -0.5% m/m (expected +0.3%).
U.K. October Construction PMI: 43.6 (expected 46.4; prior 46.1).
Japan October Services PMI: 51.7 (expected 52.0); Composite 52.1 (expected 52.3).
Australia September Trade Balance: AUD2.826 billion (expected AUD0.940 billion).
South Korea September Current Account: $61.46 billion surplus (prior $46.11 billion).

Due today (U.S., 8:30 AM ET)

Q3 Productivity (prelim): consensus 3.1%; prior 1.4%.
Q3 Unit Labor Costs (prelim): consensus 1.4%; prior 1.2%.
Initial Claims (10/31): consensus 197K; prior 194K.
Continuing Claims (10/24): prior 1,701K.
10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Inventories, prior +80 bcf.

Recent U.S. data (Wednesday): ADP October employment +86,000 (consensus 75,000); September trade deficit narrowed to $105.0 billion (consensus -$108.4 billion).

Looking Ahead

Today’s 8:30 AM ET data (productivity, unit labor costs, jobless claims) and the 10:30 AM natural gas inventories are the key scheduled events. Watch the semiconductor and AI infrastructure complex, where weakness is spilling into premarket, and whether oil’s rebound toward $90 persists. The S&P 500’s 50-day moving average at 7,693 is a nearby technical test. Next week, the Treasury will auction $58 billion in 3-yr notes, $42 billion in 10-yr notes, and $25 billion in 30-yr bonds. The ECB is expected to hike in December, per Nagel. No further earnings dates for the next session were provided beyond today’s premarket reports from AppLovin, Toyota, and Qualcomm.