Market Analysis

Market Summary — Pre market — 2026-10-31

By WaveRider AI7 min read

Market Summary

U.S. equities closed out a turbulent week with a steep Friday selloff, as an intensifying correction in AI-related and semiconductor names dragged the major averages sharply lower. The S&P 500 fell 140.32 points (-1.82%) to 7580.14, the Nasdaq Composite plunged 747.73 points (-2.85%) to 25457.43, and the DJIA dropped 572.25 points (-1.09%) to 51770.52. The Nasdaq’s retreat extended its pullback from the October peak near 27,700 to roughly 9.0%, pushing the index below its 50-day moving average (~26,570), while the PHLX Semiconductor Index plunged 7.3% and closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time in the current cycle.

The damage was concentrated in technology and growth, with Intel’s (INTC) disastrous post-earnings reaction (-28.58%) and Amazon’s (AMZN) negative free-cash-flow miss headlining a broader reassessment of AI infrastructure spending and its return profile. Defensive sectors — Energy, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities — outperformed, but breadth deteriorated meaningfully (NYSE decliners outpaced advancers 1715-998; Nasdaq decliners led 3366-1091), confirming that Friday’s selling was broader than prior sessions in the week where strength outside mega-cap tech had offset index-level losses.

For the week, the S&P 500 (-0.6%), Nasdaq (-2.0%), and DJIA (-0.9%) all finished lower, even as the Russell 2000 (+1.3%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+1.3%) posted gains — underscoring a sharp divergence between large-cap/AI-exposed names and the broader market. Treasuries extended a fourth consecutive weekly advance, benefiting from safe-haven flows even as crude oil pushed above $104/bbl. Note: there is no trading session on Halloween (Oct. 31) this year, so this briefing reflects Friday’s (Oct. 30) closing data heading into the next session.

Market Snapshot

IndexLevelChange% Change
Dow Jones51,770.52-572.25-1.09%
Nasdaq Composite25,457.43-747.73-2.85%
S&P 5007,580.14-140.32-1.82%

Breadth (NYSE): Advancers 998 | Decliners 1715 | Volume 1.57 bln
Breadth (Nasdaq): Advancers 1091 | Decliners 3366 | Volume 9.04 bln

WaveFinder Market Breadth (10/30):

  • Primary Sentiment: Bearish | 4% Sentiment: Very Bearish | 40 SMA Sentiment: Neutral
  • Primary Bulls 790 / Bears 1427
  • 4% Bulls 109 / Bears 741
  • Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 56%
  • Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 49.72%
  • 9-Month Bulls 11 / Bears 79 (Bull Follow-Through: 30.43%)

YTD Performance: Russell 2000 +13.3% | S&P Mid Cap 400 +10.8% | S&P 500 +10.7% | Nasdaq Composite +9.4% | DJIA +7.7%

Sector Performance

Ranked by Friday’s session performance (Briefing.com):

1. Energy +1.9% — crude strength, Chevron earnings beat
2. Consumer Staples +1.4% — defensive rotation (WMT, KO, MDLZ)
3. Utilities +0.6% — defensive bid
4. Health Care +0.4% — REGN, LLY earnings beats
5. Real Estate +0.2% — Treasury-yield tailwind
6. Consumer Discretionary -0.9% — AMZN earnings miss weighed
7. Communication Services -1.1% — GOOG post-earnings retreat, RDDT plunge
8. Industrials -1.6% — AI infrastructure-linked weakness
9. Financials Weak (no specific % disclosed)
10. Information Technology -4.3% — semiconductor rout, INTC collapse

WaveFinder Sector ATR (Volatility):

  • Utilities: 3.46% (rising, P100)
  • Materials: 3.05% (rising, P100)
  • Consumer Staples: 2.63% (flat, P95)
  • Health Care: 2.36% (flat, P58)
  • Energy: 2.09% (flat, P84)
  • Consumer Discretionary: 1.62% (rising, P95)
  • Industrials: -0.39% (rising, P79)
  • Real Estate: -0.23% (rising, P89)
  • Financials: -0.86% (rising, P95)
  • Communication Services: -1.53% (falling, P53)
  • Technology: -1.92% (flat, P5)

Key Earnings & Movers

  • Intel (INTC) 65.76, -26.31 (-28.58%) — Disappointing Q4 guidance citing weakening PC demand, rising memory prices, and supply constraints limiting ability to meet data center demand.
  • Dell (DELL) 424.16, -51.35 (-10.80%) — Dragged down by Intel’s weak PC outlook.
  • HP Inc. (HPQ) 28.78, -3.05 (-9.58%) — Same PC-demand concerns.
  • Sandisk (SNDK) 1151.43, -178.62 (-13.43%) — Beat Q1 estimates but modest Q2 revenue guidance and seasonal caution overshadowed strong Datacenter growth.
  • NVIDIA (NVDA) 204.78, -8.88 (-4.16%) — Broad semiconductor pressure.
  • Amazon (AMZN) 240.35, -3.44 (-1.41%) — Earnings miss, negative free cash flow, and 2027 infrastructure spending plans weighed despite record AWS growth.
  • Alphabet (GOOG) 278.22, -4.10 (-1.45%) — Continued post-earnings retreat.
  • Reddit (RDDT) 91.67, -37.93 (-29.27%) — Sharp earnings-driven decline.
  • Chevron (CVX) 235.48, +4.02 (+1.74%) — Better-than-expected earnings supported Energy.
  • Walmart (WMT) 123.51, +2.26 (+1.86%), Coca-Cola (KO) 94.08, +1.26 (+1.36%), Mondelez (MDLZ) 64.92, +2.39 (+3.82%) — Defensive standouts in Consumer Staples.
  • Regeneron (REGN) 927.89, +109.12 (+13.33%) and Eli Lilly (LLY) 1417.54, +43.84 (+3.19%) — Strong earnings reactions boosted Health Care.
  • Starbucks (SBUX) — Q4 EPS $0.80 beat; revenue $9.14 bln (-4.5% yr/yr) in line; shares modestly lower on FY27 guidance showing slight revenue decline tied to China licensing transition.

Stock Spotlight

Sandisk (SNDK) was one of the session’s most dramatic movers, plunging 13.43% (-$178.62) to $1,151.43 despite beating Q1 expectations — adjusted EPS of $49.51 topped the $46.67 FactSet consensus, and revenue rose 23% sequentially to $11.03 bln versus $10.72 bln expected. The stock’s decline illustrates how quickly the market has pivoted from rewarding AI-exposed beats to scrutinizing forward guidance: Q2 guidance of $55-$57 EPS and $12.2-$12.6 bln revenue only modestly exceeded consensus, and management’s caution around fiscal Q3 seasonality overshadowed otherwise exceptional fundamentals.

Datacenter revenue surged 61% sequentially to $4.8 bln, lifting its share of total revenue to 43.5% from just 11.7% a year earlier, supported by enterprise SSD adoption and three U.S. hyperscalers. Eight NBM customers now underpin $93.9 bln of minimum contracted revenue at floor pricing, covering roughly half of FY27 bits and two-thirds of FY28 bits, with 95% of agreements involving investment-grade counterparties. Adjusted free cash flow rose 13% sequentially to $5.7 bln, and the company repurchased $5 bln of stock with $10.5 bln still authorized. Despite this contractual visibility and balance-sheet strength (no debt, $5.1 bln cash), investors focused on softening Consumer segment revenue (-29% sequentially) and conservative seasonal commentary — a pattern consistent with the broader market’s growing skepticism toward AI-linked growth stories. Note: an eight-for-one stock split takes effect November 20.

Bond Market & Treasuries

Treasuries notched a fourth consecutive weekly advance, with yields across the curve now down roughly 40 basis points from their October highs. Friday’s session saw safe-haven buying offset upward pressure from rising crude prices, keeping the complex within a tight range near the day’s opening levels.

TenorYieldDaily ChangeWeekly Change
2-Yr4.59%-7 bps-9 bps
3-Yr4.65%-8 bps-10 bps
5-Yr4.72%-8 bps-9 bps
10-Yr4.93%-6 bps-6 bps
30-Yr5.31%-2 bps-1 bp

Key drivers: St. Louis Fed President Musalem (non-voter) advocated additional rate hikes at a measured pace; ongoing speculation over potential U.S. military action against Iran following Tuesday’s midterm elections; heavy equity selling in tech/semis supported safe-haven demand. The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 1.25% and signaled its inflation target has been reached, raising annual ETF sales to JPY860 billion from JPY330 billion starting in January.

Commodities

  • WTI Crude: +2.0% to $104.06/bbl (settled just above $104, up just under $1/bbl for the week) — supported by Iran-related geopolitical risk premium.
  • Gold: -3.3% to $3,899.00/ozt
  • Copper: -1.8% to $6.48/lb
  • Silver: Not available in source data.

Currencies: U.S. Dollar Index -0.2% to 101.89 (week: +0.1%). EUR/USD -0.1% to 1.1167; GBP/USD +0.1% to 1.3395; USD/CNH unchanged at 6.6533; USD/JPY -0.1% to 157.51.

Overseas Markets

Asia: South Korea -3.5% and Japan -2.1% closed the week lower, pressured by spillover tech volatility following Amazon and Intel results. South Korea’s September Industrial Production surged +9.0% m/m (prior -4.6%) and +1.2% yr/yr; Retail Sales +3.6% m/m. Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI came in at +2.6% yr/yr (as expected), Tokyo CPI +2.8% yr/yr (below the +3.3% expected), and CPI ex-food/energy +2.4% yr/yr. Japan’s September Industrial Production jumped +2.2% m/m (vs. +1.2% expected) and Retail Sales rose +2.3% yr/yr; Unemployment Rate held at 2.4%. Australia’s Q3 PPI was +1.1% q/q and +3.6% yr/yr.

Europe: Eurozone Q3 GDP grew +0.4% q/q and +1.3% yr/yr, topping expectations; September Unemployment Rate held at 6.5%. Germany’s Q3 GDP rose +0.2% q/q/+1.2% yr/yr with October Unemployment steady at 6.4%. France’s Q3 GDP contracted -0.1% q/q/-0.1% yr/yr, while October CPI accelerated to +3.4% yr/yr. Italy’s Q3 GDP was flat (0.0% q/q) with October CPI jumping to +5.4% yr/yr. Spain’s Q3 GDP rose +0.6% q/q/+2.7% yr/yr, in line with expectations. U.K. October Nationwide HPI was flat m/m (+0.5% yr/yr).

Economic Data

  • Q3 Employment Cost Index: +0.8% (Briefing.com consensus +0.8%), following +0.9% in Q2. Wages/salaries +0.7%, benefits +0.9%. Wages/salaries up 3.1% yr/yr — continuing to undershoot inflation, a headwind for discretionary spending.
  • Chicago PMI: 55.3 in October, down from 58.8 in September — signaling a deceleration in regional manufacturing activity.

Looking Ahead

Monday:

  • Final October S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (prior 56.0) — 9:45 ET
  • September Job Openings (consensus 7.100 mln; prior 7.079 mln) — 10:00 ET
  • September Construction Spending (consensus 0.5%; prior 0.9%) — 10:00 ET
  • October ISM Manufacturing (consensus 54.7; prior 54.5) — 10:00 ET
  • U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Financing Estimates — 15:00 ET

Tuesday:

  • September Business Inventories (prior 0.4%) — 10:00 ET
  • September Factory Orders (consensus 1.2%; prior 0.1%) — 10:00 ET
  • Midterm election voting concludes

Wednesday:

  • Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior 3.4%) — 7:00 ET
  • October ADP Employment Change (consensus 75,000; prior 90,000) — 8:15 ET
  • September Trade Balance — data release time not specified in source

Markets will continue monitoring the fallout from the AI-spending correction, with investor focus on whether defensive rotation and broader-market strength (Russell 2000, S&P Mid Cap 400) can stabilize sentiment following Friday’s semiconductor-led rout.