Market Summary
U.S. equities closed out the week with a broad Friday rally, as the S&P 500 added 56.27 points (+0.73%) to settle at 7722.82, the Nasdaq Composite surged 319.27 points (+1.19%) to 27211.90, and the DJIA gained 250.40 points (+0.49%) to finish at 51176.87. The session’s momentum was set in motion by a much weaker-than-expected September Employment Situation report — nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 versus a 100,000 consensus — which reinforced market expectations that the Fed will stand pat at its upcoming October FOMC meeting. That “bad news is good news” dynamic, combined with a sharp pullback in crude oil following a G7/IEA coordinated reserve release, propelled the major averages to session highs in early trading.
Gains moderated modestly through midday as Treasury yields reversed their initial post-jobs-report decline, climbing back toward multi-year highs, but equities retained the bulk of their advance into the close. Technology and mega-cap growth names provided the clearest leadership, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index jumping 2.4% and NVIDIA (NVDA) adding 1.34%. Consumer discretionary paced all S&P 500 sectors (+1.4%), lifted by a blowout Tesla delivery number, while Western Digital (WDC) and Seagate (STX) were hit hard on supply-side concerns tied to Toshiba’s HDD capacity expansion, and NIKE (NKE) tumbled to fresh decade lows on a disappointing FY27 guide.
Participation was healthier than the recent narrow-leadership pattern, with the Russell 2000 (+0.9%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+1.0%) both outperforming the cap-weighted S&P 500, and all 11 sectors finishing at or above the flat line. Still, the S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index rose just 0.4% versus the cap-weighted index’s 0.7% gain, underscoring that mega-cap and semiconductor strength continued to do the heavy lifting. For the week, only the Nasdaq (+0.5%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.5%) finished in positive territory, while the DJIA fell 1.3% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% as elevated Treasury yields remained a persistent headwind.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| S&P 500 | 7722.82 | +56.27 | +0.73% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27211.90 | +319.27 | +1.19% |
| DJIA | 51176.87 | +250.40 | +0.49% |
Market Internals (NYSE/Nasdaq):
- NYSE: Advancers 1,673 / Decliners 1,071 | Volume: 1.25 bln
- Nasdaq: Advancers 2,822 / Decliners 2,110 | Volume: 7.97 bln
WaveFinder Breadth (as of 10/02/2026):
- Primary Sentiment: Bearish (Bulls 434 / Bears 664)
- 4% Sentiment: Bullish (Bulls 218 / Bears 123)
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Bullish
- % of Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 29.0%
- % of Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 21.65%
- 9-Month Bulls/Bears: 20 / 7 (Follow-Through: 33.33%)
Breadth readings reflect a market still split between near-term bullish momentum (4% and 40 SMA sentiment) and a longer-term bearish primary trend, with fewer than one-third of stocks holding above their 20- and 40-day moving averages despite the day’s index-level gains.
Sector Performance
Ranked by available session performance data (Briefing.com Industry Watch + narrative commentary):
1. Consumer Discretionary +1.4% — Top performer, led by Tesla’s delivery beat
2. Information Technology +1.1% — Semiconductor strength (PHLX Semi Index +2.4%), NVDA +1.34%
3. Materials +1.0% — Standout gainer
4. Communication Services +0.9% — Lifted by mega-cap strength
5. Real Estate — Listed among day’s strong sectors (Briefing.com), specific % not disclosed
6. Energy — Finished positive (all 11 sectors ≥ flat); specific % not disclosed
7. Industrials — Finished positive; specific % not disclosed
8. Consumer Staples — Finished positive; specific % not disclosed
9. Utilities — Finished positive; specific % not disclosed
10. Health Care Flat — Laggard; continued biotech weakness
11. Financials Flat — Laggard
Note: All 11 S&P 500 sectors finished at or above their flat lines Friday. WaveFinder’s sector ATR (volatility) data shows Technology ATR at 2.84% (rising, P100) as the most volatile/active sector, while Real Estate (-3.86%, falling, P5) and Utilities (-3.15%, rising, P58) showed the largest volatility readings on the downside spectrum — though these are volatility, not directional performance, metrics.
Key Earnings & Movers
- NVIDIA (NVDA) $233.95, +$3.09 (+1.34%) — Semiconductor leadership continued amid broad tech strength
- SpaceX (SPCX) $158.95, +$10.88 (+7.35%) — Standout gainer on favorable analyst commentary regarding demand for its “Grok Bot”
- Tesla (TSLA) $370.59, +$16.48 (+4.65%) — Q3 deliveries of 486,532 vehicles topped company-compiled consensus of 461,974
- NIKE (NKE) $33.90, -$1.26 (-3.57%) — Fresh decade lows following disappointing FY27 outlook (down as much as 8% intraday per morning reports)
- Western Digital (WDC) $415.29, -$47.27 (-10.22%) — Pressured by Toshiba’s HDD capacity expansion announcement
- Seagate Technology (STX) $848.99, -$96.58 (-10.21%) — Same Toshiba-driven supply concerns
Stock Spotlight
NIKE (NKE) — Fresh Decade Lows on FY27 Guidance Disappointment
NIKE shares fell to new decade lows, closing at $33.90 (-3.57%), after delivering a mixed fiscal Q1 report that masked a far more troubling forward outlook. While Q1 (Aug) EPS of $0.48 beat expectations, revenue declined 4% year-over-year to $11.21 billion, coming in slightly below consensus. The real damage came from management’s FY27 guidance: revenue is now expected to decline in the high-single-digit range, with adjusted EPS of $1.15–$1.35 landing well below Street expectations as lower revenue, continued margin pressure, and fixed-cost deleverage weigh on profitability.
The pressure points remain familiar — Sportswear (just under half of Q1 revenue) declined low-double-digits, Jordan Brand fell mid-teens, and NKE cut Dunk revenue by nearly 50% as part of an effort to reduce oversupply and restore scarcity in the Jordan retro line. Geographically, North America grew 2% on strength in Running, Global Football, and Basketball, but Greater China deteriorated sharply, falling 26%, with management warning trends there will worsen through the balance of FY27. Gross margin did expand 60 bps to 42.8% on supply chain management and FX tailwinds, but those gains were offset by higher discounting. Looking to address the prolonged turnaround, NKE unveiled a new operating-model transformation targeting approximately $2.5 billion in cumulative savings through FY31 against roughly $1.0 billion in pre-tax charges, with a five-year financial framework to be detailed at its November Investor Day.
Bond Market & Treasuries
U.S. Treasuries finished the week with losses across the curve as an early rally tied to the weak jobs report fully reversed, pushing longer-tenor yields back to their highest levels of the year.
| Tenor | Yield | Daily Change | Weekly Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| 2-Yr | 4.82% | +3 bps | +4 bps |
| 3-Yr | 4.96% | +6 bps | +2 bps |
| 5-Yr | 5.06% | +5 bps | +5 bps |
| 10-Yr | 5.28% | +4 bps | +10 bps |
| 30-Yr | 5.63% | +3 bps | +13 bps |
The initial rally following the soft payrolls data proved short-lived — 2-year yields were back to pre-NFP levels within 90 minutes, and selling pressure intensified into the early afternoon, pushing 10s and 30s to within a couple basis points of their weekly closing highs. The 10-year note’s 5.28% close marks its highest level since 2007-era comparisons referenced earlier in the month. Elevated yields remained an important constraint on equities throughout the week despite easing expectations for an October Fed rate hike.
Commodities
| Commodity | Price | Daily Change |
|—|—|—|
| WTI Crude Oil | $91.10/bbl | -2.1% (-$1.92) |
| Gold | $4,162.60/ozt | -1.2% |
| Copper | $6.55/lb | -0.5% |
Crude oil briefly dipped below $90/bbl intraday before recovering a portion of its decline, pressured by a coordinated G7/IEA release of 100 million barrels over four months. For the week, WTI finished down roughly 1.5% despite the energy sector still gaining 1.4% on the week. (Silver pricing was not available in source data.)
Overseas Markets
Specific Asian and European equity index closing levels were not included in today’s source data; however, key regional economic and currency developments included:
- Japan: September Tokyo CPI +2.7% yr/yr (prior 1.9%); Tokyo Core CPI +2.7% yr/yr (expected 2.4%, prior 1.8%); August Unemployment Rate rose to 2.5% (expected 2.4%, prior 2.4%)
- South Korea: September CPI +0.3% m/m (expected 0.4%), +2.9% yr/yr (expected 2.9%, prior 3.1%)
- Eurozone: September CPI +0.6% m/m, +3.8% yr/yr (expected 3.7%, prior 3.2%); Core CPI +0.2% m/m, +2.5% yr/yr (expected 2.5%)
- Spain: September Unemployment increased by 23.6K (expected 17.6K)
- Italy: August Retail Sales +0.3% m/m (expected -0.1%), +0.5% yr/yr
Currencies: EUR/USD +0.1% to 1.1251 | GBP/USD +0.4% to 1.3240 | USD/CNH -0.1% to 6.7063 | USD/JPY -0.2% to 157.78
Economic Data
September Employment Situation Report:
- Nonfarm Payrolls: +29,000 (consensus 100,000; prior revised to 133,000 from 162,000)
- Private Sector Payrolls: +46,000 (consensus 100,000; prior revised to 89,000 from 127,000)
- Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (consensus 4.1%; prior 4.1%)
- Average Hourly Earnings: +0.1% m/m (consensus 0.3%; prior +0.3%); +3.0% yr/yr (vs. 3.1% in August)
- Average Workweek: 34.4 hours (consensus 34.3)
- Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.8% (up from 61.6%)
- Employment-Population Ratio: 59.2% (up from 59.1%)
- U6 Underemployment Rate: 7.6% (down from 7.7%)
August Factory Orders: +0.1% m/m (consensus 0.0%; prior revised to +0.8% from +0.9%); ex-transportation +0.3%
Market Impact: The weaker labor data reinforced expectations the Fed will hold rates steady at the October FOMC meeting, driving the morning’s risk-on move. However, initial Treasury gains fully reversed by midday, with yields climbing back toward weekly highs — limiting the follow-through benefit for rate-sensitive equity sectors.
Looking Ahead
Monday:
- Final September S&P Global U.S. Services PMI (prior 58.7) — 9:45 ET
- September ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (consensus 55.7; prior 55.4) — 10:00 ET
Tuesday:
- August Trade Balance (consensus -$93.7 bln; prior -$88.6 bln) — 8:30 ET
- $58 bln 3-Year Treasury Note Auction — 13:00 ET
Wednesday:
- Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior -6.0%) — 7:00 ET
- Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (prior +0.9 mln bbls) — time TBD
Corporate Calendar: NIKE (NKE) will host its Investor Day in November, where management is expected to unveil a five-year financial framework detailing its operating-model transformation and cost-savings targets.