Market Summary
U.S. equity futures are pointing to a lower open on Thursday as the market attempts to stabilize following back-to-back losing sessions. As of the 08:02 ET update, S&P 500 futures are trading 14.00 points below fair value while Nasdaq futures are off a steeper 212.00 points versus fair value, signaling continued underperformance in growth and mega-cap tech names. The primary overhang remains the same combination that pressured stocks on Wednesday: rising oil prices and climbing Treasury yields. WTI crude is trading above $97/bbl and the 10-year note yield has pushed up to 4.87-4.88%, keeping inflation and rate-hike concerns front and center just one day ahead of the August CPI report and roughly a week before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.
Wednesday’s session saw the major averages extend their holiday-shortened week decline, with the DJIA falling 405.41 points (-0.8%) to 52,380.66, the S&P 500 shedding 37.16 points (-0.5%) to 7,636.36, and the Nasdaq Composite dropping 168.07 points (-0.6%) to 26,274.39. Small- and mid-cap stocks underperformed notably, with the Russell 2000 down 1.3% and the S&P Mid Cap 400 off 1.1%. Ten of eleven S&P 500 sectors finished in the red, with only energy (+1.1%) managing a gain as crude surged on escalating U.S.-Iran tensions.
Heading into today, attention is split between the ECB’s policy decision at 8:15 ET (a 25-bp hike is widely expected) and the domestic data slate, including August PPI and weekly jobless claims at 8:30 ET. The CME FedWatch Tool currently assigns a 62.2% probability to a September rate hike, up from 62.4% referenced earlier in the week, keeping the policy path highly sensitive to Thursday’s inflation data and tomorrow’s CPI print. Overnight, Asian markets were mostly lower on renewed BoJ rate-hike chatter, while European markets are mixed ahead of the ECB announcement.
Market Snapshot
Wednesday’s Close (09-Sep-26):
- DJIA: 52,380.66 (-405.41, -0.8%)
- S&P 500: 7,636.36 (-37.16, -0.5%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 26,274.39 (-168.07, -0.6%)
- Russell 2000: -1.3% (session); +17.7% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: -1.1% (session); +12.5% YTD
YTD Performance:
- Nasdaq Composite: +13.0%
- S&P 500: +11.6%
- DJIA: +9.0%
Thursday Pre-Market Futures (08:02 ET):
- S&P futures vs. fair value: -14.00
- Nasdaq futures vs. fair value: -212.00
WaveFinder Market Breadth (10-Sep-26):
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bullish (Bulls 920 / Bears 824)
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Bearish
- 4% Sentiment: Neutral
- Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 28%
- Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 32%
- 9-Month Bull Follow-Through: 0%
Breadth signals are mixed — longer-term trend readings (40 SMA sentiment, % above key moving averages) remain weak even as shorter-term primary sentiment skews bullish, consistent with a market searching for footing after two down sessions.
Sector Performance
Wednesday’s Close (09-Sep-26) — Ranked by Performance:
1. Energy: +1.1% (sole advancer, boosted by crude surge)
2. Information Technology: -0.2% (semis provided relative strength)
3. Communication Services: -0.3% (META gain offset GOOG/CMCSA/CHTR weakness)
4. Consumer Staples: -0.9%
5. Real Estate: -1.1%
6. Utilities: -1.2%
7. Consumer Discretionary: -1.4%
8. Industrials: -1.5% (session laggard)
9-11. Financials, Materials, Health Care: declined (specific % not detailed, among the 10 of 11 sectors lower)
WaveFinder Sector ATR / Volatility Snapshot (10-Sep-26):
- Energy: ATR 3.12% (flat, P63) — highest volatility reading
- Health Care: ATR 1.28% (falling, P0)
- Communication Services: ATR 0.32% (falling, P5)
- Financials: ATR 0.17% (flat, P11)
- Technology: ATR -0.04% (rising, P95)
- Materials: ATR -1.00% (falling, P0)
- Consumer Staples: ATR -1.17% (falling, P0)
- Consumer Discretionary: ATR -1.92% (falling, P0)
- Utilities: ATR -2.05% (rising, P37)
- Industrials: ATR -2.08% (falling, P0)
- Real Estate: ATR -2.78% (falling, P0) — lowest volatility reading
Energy remains the standout for both performance and volatility, reflecting the ongoing crude oil rally. Technology’s ATR sits at a 95th percentile rank despite a near-flat reading, suggesting compressed but historically elevated volatility positioning heading into today’s session.
Key Earnings & Movers
Pre-Market Movers (10-Sep-26):
- AeroVironment (AVAV): $148.44, +7.64 (+5.43%) — Beat fiscal Q1 EPS and revenue estimates; issued FY27 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance.
- Kinetik (KNTK): $56.89, +2.34 (+4.29%) — Reportedly weighing strategic alternatives, including a possible sale, per Bloomberg.
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): $431.00, -4.36 (-1.0%) — August revenue rose 53% to a record high, yet shares slipped in early trading.
Wednesday’s Notable Movers:
- Casey’s General (CASY): $629.03, -104.46 (-14.24%) — Weakest S&P 500 component after Q1 earnings beat was overshadowed by softer inside-operations mix and unchanged outlook.
- Vertiv (VRT): $262.87, -27.96 (-9.61%) — Led industrials sector losses.
- Meta Platforms (META): $653.69, +40.21 (+6.55%) — Standout mega-cap gainer following debut of “Muse” personal AI agent.
- Comcast (CMCSA): $24.59, -1.74 (-6.61%) — Pressured after flagging heightened “competitive intensity” at Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference.
- Charter Communications (CHTR): $133.89, -11.85 (-8.13%) — Fell alongside Comcast on competitive concerns.
- Alphabet (GOOG): $328.38, -7.00 (-2.09%) — Weighed on communication services.
- Apple (AAPL): $315.34, -0.88 (-0.28%) — Briefly turned positive intraday after unveiling the iPhone Duo (first foldable iPhone) and iPhone 18, but closed lower.
- NVIDIA (NVDA): $223.79, -1.94 (-0.86%) — Limited semiconductor group upside despite PHLX Semiconductor Index gain of +0.4%.
After-Hours Spotlight:
- AeroVironment (AVAV): Beat by $0.37, beat on revenue, provided FY27 guidance — initially +3.2% after-hours.
- American Eagle (AEO): Beat by $0.57, beat on revenue — shares fell 9.7% after hours.
- Centrus (LEU): Launched underwritten stock/warrant offering — shares down 5.6%.
- Cooper (COO): Beat by $0.03, missed on revenue; guided Q4 EPS and revenue below consensus.
- Chime (CHYM): +5% on $590 million acquisition of Stride Bank.
Stock Spotlight
Casey’s General (CASY) was the session’s most significant decliner, closing Wednesday at $629.03, down $104.46 (-14.24%), making it the weakest performer in the S&P 500. The move came despite the convenience-store operator beating both EPS and revenue expectations for its fiscal Q1, with revenue climbing 24.3% year-over-year to $5.68 billion. The market’s negative reaction reflected disappointment that the composition of the beat leaned more heavily on fuel economics than inside-store operations compared to a stronger Q4. Fuel margin expanded sharply to 47.8 cents per gallon from 41.0 cents a year ago, driving fuel gross profit up 19.6% to $446.9 million, while inside same-store sales growth of 3.2% marked a step down from Q4’s 5.5% pace.
Briefing.com’s analysis notes that while the quarter did not signal a clear deterioration in the business — August volumes remained consistent with Q1 and within CASY’s annual guidance ranges — fuel margins were already normalizing toward the low-$0.40 range in August, raising questions about the sustainability of the fuel-driven upside. Management maintained its FY27 outlook and reiterated its practice of updating guidance after Q2, leaving investors to look toward the next quarterly update for confirmation of underlying momentum in both inside sales and fuel economics.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Current Levels (10-Sep-26, 08:01 ET):
- 2-Year: 4.45% (+2 bps)
- 3-Year: 4.55% (+3 bps)
- 5-Year: 4.64% (+3 bps)
- 10-Year: 4.88% (+4 bps), trading -6/32
- 30-Year: 5.32% (+3 bps)
Wednesday’s Close (09-Sep-26):
- 2-Year: 4.43% (+3 bps)
- 3-Year: 4.52% (+5 bps)
- 5-Year: 4.61% (+4 bps)
- 10-Year: 4.84% (+3 bps) — fresh 2026 high
- 30-Year: 5.29% (+2 bps)
Treasuries are set for a lower start Thursday, with the long end underperforming after outperforming Wednesday. Key drivers include hawkish commentary from Bank of Japan policymaker Masu (calling for real rates to move out of negative territory), the widely expected ECB rate hike at 8:15 ET, and positioning ahead of today’s August PPI release. The Treasury will complete this week’s auction slate with a $22 billion 30-year bond reopening at 13:00 ET. Wednesday’s session was also shaped by an “underwhelming” Treasury buyback update ($6 billion of 10-20yr maturities) that pushed yields to session highs, partially offset by a strong $38 billion 10-year note auction. 10-year note futures are now at their lowest level since late 2023.
Commodities
Pre-Market Levels (10-Sep-26):
- WTI Crude: $97.51/bbl (+1.5%)
- Gold: $4,423.80/ozt (-0.8%)
- Copper: $6.599/lb (-4.2%)
Wednesday’s Close (09-Sep-26):
- Crude Oil: $96.07 (+3.05, +3.3%)
- Natural Gas: $2.82 (-0.10)
- Gold: $4,459.80 (+20.90)
- Silver: $68.68 (+1.65)
- Copper: $6.89 (+0.07)
Crude oil remains the dominant commodity theme, extending gains for a third session on the back of the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict, with WTI now trading above $97/bbl. Gold has pulled back 0.8% in early trading after Wednesday’s rally, while copper is down sharply (-4.2%) in pre-market action.
Overseas Markets
Asia (10-Sep-26):
- Nikkei 225: 65,270.95 (+128.20, +0.20%)
- Hang Seng: 24,954.47 (-320.50, -1.30%)
- Shanghai Composite: -0.4%
- India Sensex: +0.2%
- South Korea Kospi: -0.3%
- Australia ASX All Ordinaries: -1.0%
Asian markets were mostly lower overnight following comments from a Bank of Japan policymaker suggesting additional rate hikes may be needed to move real rates out of negative territory amid accelerating inflation.
Europe (10-Sep-26, ahead of ECB decision):
- STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%
- Germany DAX: +0.1%
- U.K. FTSE 100: -0.3% (underperformer)
- France CAC 40: +0.1%
- Italy FTSE MIB: +0.4%
- Spain IBEX 35: +0.4%
European markets are mixed ahead of the ECB’s 8:15 ET policy decision, where a rate hike is widely expected alongside updated economic projections. Separately, British PM Burnham opened the door to another Scottish independence referendum. Wednesday saw sharper European losses: DAX -1.7%, FTSE -1.3%, CAC -1.9%.
Economic Data
Overnight/International Releases:
- Germany Final August CPI: 0.2% m/m (as expected; prior 0.8%); 2.9% yr/yr (as expected; prior 2.9%)
- Italy July Industrial Production: +0.7% m/m (expected 0.3%; prior -1.1%); 0.0% yr/yr (expected -0.6%; prior -0.6%)
- Spain July Industrial Production: +2.3% yr/yr (prior 1.1%)
- Australia September MI Inflation Expectations: 4.9% (unchanged from prior 4.9%)
Wednesday’s U.S. Data:
- Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index: -2.7% (prior +0.8%)
Today’s Pending U.S. Releases:
- 8:30 ET: August PPI (consensus 0.4%; prior 0.0%) and Core PPI (consensus 0.3%; prior 0.2%)
- 8:30 ET: Initial Claims for week of 09/05 (consensus 208K; prior 206K)
- 8:30 ET: Continuing Claims for week of 08/29 (prior 1,779K)
- 10:00 ET: August Existing Home Sales (consensus 4.03M; prior 4.06M)
- 10:00 ET: July Wholesale Inventories (consensus 1.3%; prior 0.2%)
PPI and jobless claims will be closely watched for early inflation signals ahead of tomorrow’s more consequential CPI report, with the data landing just days before the FOMC meets on September 15-16.
Looking Ahead
- 8:15 ET Today: ECB policy decision — a 25-bp rate hike is widely expected, along with updated economic projections.
- 8:30 ET Today: August PPI, Core PPI, weekly jobless claims.
- 10:00 ET Today: Existing Home Sales, Wholesale Inventories.
- 10:30 ET Today: EIA Natural Gas Inventories (prior +30 bcf).
- 12:00 ET Today: EIA Crude Oil Inventories (prior -4.45M).
- 13:00 ET Today: $22 billion 30-year Treasury bond reopening results.
- Tomorrow (11-Sep-26): August Consumer Price Index — viewed as the more consequential inflation catalyst ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.
- September 15-16: FOMC meeting; CME FedWatch currently assigns a 62.2% probability to a 25-bp rate hike.
Markets will remain highly sensitive to any further escalation in oil prices tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict, as well as incoming Treasury yield action following this week’s auction cycle and buyback announcements.