Market Summary
U.S. equity futures point to a sharply lower open on Wednesday, September 9, with S&P 500 futures trading 32.00 points below fair value and Nasdaq futures down 162.00 points below fair value as of 07:58 ET. The cautious tone extends Tuesday’s broad decline, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 628.18 points (-1.2%) to 52786.07, the S&P 500 shed 45.08 points (-0.6%) to 7673.52, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 85.58 points (-0.3%) to 26442.46. The primary catalyst remains escalating Middle East hostilities, with an exchange of strikes between the U.S. and Iran and a Houthi attack on a Saudi energy facility driving crude oil sharply higher. WTI crude is up $2.45 (+2.6%) to $95.48/bbl in early trading, while Brent crude has returned to the $100/bbl threshold for the first time since July.
Tuesday’s session saw broad-based weakness beneath the surface, with only the energy (+1.0%) and utilities (+0.9%) sectors finishing positive among S&P 500 groups. Health care (-2.6%) was the standout laggard after Novartis (NVS) suffered back-to-back Phase III trial failures, dragging Amgen (AMGN) down 10.08% in sympathy. Financials (-1.4%) also underperformed broadly. Semiconductor strength (PHLX Semiconductor Index +1.3%) provided a meaningful offset, helping limit Nasdaq’s decline, fueled by encouraging AI-demand commentary at several high-profile tech conferences and standout gains in Intel (+9.05%) and AMD (+5.90%).
Looking ahead, investors are digesting a modest slate of pre-market earnings while awaiting the week’s key inflation prints — August PPI on Thursday and August CPI on Friday — which are widely viewed as decisive inputs for the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool currently assigns a 58.4% probability to a 25-basis-point rate hike. WaveFinder breadth data shows a “Very Bullish” primary sentiment reading alongside a “Bearish” 40-day SMA sentiment, with only 35% of stocks trading above their 20-day moving average and 38.2% above their 40-day moving average — an internally mixed picture despite the bullish primary signal.
Market Snapshot
Index Levels (Tuesday 08-Sep-26 close):
- DJIA: 52,786.07 (-628.18, -1.2%)
- S&P 500: 7,673.52 (-45.08, -0.6%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 26,442.46 (-85.58, -0.3%)
- Russell 2000: -0.5%
- S&P Mid Cap 400: -0.7%
Pre-Market Futures (09-Sep-26, 07:58 ET):
- S&P 500 futures: -32.00 vs. fair value
- Nasdaq futures: -162.00 vs. fair value
Year-to-Date Performance:
- Russell 2000: +19.3%
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +13.7%
- Nasdaq Composite: +13.7%
- S&P 500: +12.1%
- DJIA: +9.8%
Market Breadth (WaveFinder, 09-Sep-26):
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bullish (Bulls 999 / Bears 757)
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Bearish
- 4% Sentiment: Neutral
- Above 20-day SMA: 35%
- Above 40-day SMA: 38.2%
Sector Performance
Ranked by Tuesday’s (08-Sep-26) actual S&P 500 sector performance, supplemented with WaveFinder volatility (ATR) context where noted:
1. Energy: +1.0% — Benefited directly from rising crude prices; WaveFinder ATR 2.69% (flat, P47), the highest volatility reading in the group.
2. Utilities: +0.9% — One of only two sectors to finish higher; WaveFinder ATR -1.85% (rising, P53).
3. Information Technology: -0.2% — Outperformed the broader market on semiconductor strength (PHLX Semiconductor Index +1.3%); WaveFinder ATR -0.14% (rising, P89).
4. Financials: -1.4% — Broadly lower across the group; WaveFinder ATR 0.27% (flat, P16).
5. Health Care: -2.6% — Bottom performer, pressured by Novartis/Amgen pipeline and safety setbacks; WaveFinder ATR 1.40% (falling, P5).
Sectors without explicit daily percentage moves in source data (WaveFinder ATR/volatility shown for reference):
- Communication Services: ATR 1.10% (falling, P11)
- Consumer Discretionary: ATR -1.28% (falling, P0)
- Industrials: ATR -1.47% (flat, P26)
- Consumer Staples: ATR -0.52% (falling, P0)
- Materials: ATR -0.25% (falling, P0)
- Real Estate: ATR -2.49% (falling, P0)
Key Earnings & Movers
Pre-Market (09-Sep-26):
- Chime (CHYM) 35.40, +3.09 (+9.56%) — Agreed to acquire a longtime bank partner for $590 million in cash; issued upside Q3 and FY2026 revenue guidance, expected to be immediately accretive to EPS.
- Chewy (CHWY) 23.82, +0.55 (+2.36%) — Topped Q2 earnings and revenue expectations; provided FY2026 guidance.
- Meta Platforms (META) 641.01, +27.53 (+4.6%) — Rallying after the debut of its Muse personal AI agent.
- Sunbelt Rentals (SUNB) 71.91, +2.59 (+3.74%) — Beat fiscal Q1 earnings/revenue; raised FY2027 revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA guidance.
- Braze (BRZE) — Beat by $0.03 and topped revenue expectations; provided Q3 (Sep) and FY26 guidance (after-hours Tuesday).
Tuesday Session Movers:
- Amgen (AMGN) 393.17, -44.06 (-10.08%) — Sharp decline tied to Novartis pipeline read-through, weighing on the DJIA.
- Novartis (NVS) 137.70, -22.29 (-13.93%) — Dual Phase III trial failures.
- Intel (INTC) 104.47, +8.67 (+9.05%) — Positive analyst commentary, reports of potential price increases.
- AMD 505.74, +28.17 (+5.90%) — Upbeat AI demand and server CPU commentary.
- Qualcomm (QCOM) 174.09, +5.35 (+3.17%) — Multi-year custom silicon/optical agreement with Amazon.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) 225.73, -4.63 (-2.01%) — Weakness among mega-caps despite sector strength.
- Corning (GLW) 165.99, +11.69 (+7.58%) — Multi-billion-dollar optical fiber agreement with Verizon.
- Lumentum (LITE) 978.54, +97.28 (+11.04%) — Optical infrastructure read-through.
- Coherent (COHR) 301.88, +20.02 (+7.10%) — Optical infrastructure read-through.
- Verizon (VZ) 50.41, +0.27 (+0.54%) — Optical fiber deal with Corning.
Stock Spotlight
Novartis (NVS): Triple Pipeline Blow Rattles Confidence
Novartis shares plunged 13.93% to $137.70 on Tuesday after primary-endpoint failures for two key pipeline assets — pelacarsen and del-desiran — combined with a recent safety-related pause across eight of ten rap-cel (rapcabtagene autoleucel) studies to trigger a broad reassessment of the company’s R&D productivity. The 8,323-patient Phase III HORIZON trial showed pelacarsen lowered Lp(a) but failed to reduce the composite risk of cardiovascular death, non-fatal MI, non-fatal stroke, or urgent coronary revascularization versus placebo. Separately, the roughly 150-patient Phase III HARBOR trial for del-desiran failed to significantly improve video hand opening time in myotonic dystrophy patients — a particularly damaging result given del-desiran was the centerpiece of Novartis’s approximately $12 billion acquisition of Avidity Biosciences.
While Novartis maintained its 5-6% sales CAGR outlook for 2025-2030 and cited positive secondary/exploratory endpoint signals, the failures raise fundamental target-validation questions and increase pressure on newer medicines to offset patent erosion from Entresto and other mature products. The selloff’s ripple effects were felt across the health care sector broadly, dragging Amgen down 10.08% and contributing to health care’s -2.6% sector decline — the worst performer on the day and a key driver of the DJIA’s underperformance.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Treasury yields are mostly higher in early trading, led by the short end, even as crude oil surges on renewed Middle East tensions:
- 2-yr: 4.42%, +2 bps
- 3-yr: 4.51%, +4 bps
- 5-yr: 4.59%, +2 bps
- 10-yr: 4.806%, unchanged (-1/32 in price)
- 30-yr: 4.25%, -1 bp
Tuesday’s session saw modest losses across the curve: 2-yr +2 bps to 4.40%, 10-yr +2 bps to 4.81%, 30-yr +2 bps to 5.26%. Despite the jump in oil prices, the Treasury market has remained relatively calm — a dynamic Briefing.com notes has helped mitigate headline-induced equity volatility. The U.S. Treasury’s increased buyback allowances begin today, and a $39 billion 10-year note auction is scheduled for 13:00 ET, following Tuesday’s solid $58 billion 3-year note sale. Treasury Secretary Bessent also warned market participants against betting against the yen, which has strengthened to its best level versus the dollar since late February (USD/JPY: 153.34, -0.3%).
Commodities
- WTI Crude: $95.48/bbl, +$2.45 (+2.6%) — highest level since early June; Brent crude back above $100/bbl for first time since July
- Gold: $4,448.40/ozt, +0.2%
- Silver: $67.03/ozt (Tuesday close, +0.25)
- Copper: $6.757/lb, -1.0%
- Natural Gas: $2.92 (Tuesday close, -0.06)
Tuesday closes for reference: Crude Oil +1.52 to $93.02; Gold -37.10 to $4438.90; Silver +0.25 to $67.03; Copper +0.14 to $6.82
Overseas Markets
Asia-Pacific (mostly lower):
- Nikkei: 65,142.78, -126.60 (-0.2%)
- Hang Seng: 25,274.96, -42.20 (-0.2%)
- Shanghai Composite: +0.3%
- India Sensex: -1.1%
- South Korea Kospi: +1.4%
- Australia ASX All Ordinaries: -0.1%
Key drivers: China reported its first CPI increase since April on higher energy costs; Reserve Bank of Australia officials signaled openness to further rate hikes before year-end; China is reportedly limiting IPO approvals for humanoid robotics startups following a weak sector debut.
Europe (broadly lower):
- STOXX Europe 600: -1.4%
- Germany’s DAX: -1.5%
- U.K.’s FTSE 100: -1.1%
- France’s CAC 40: -2.0%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB: -1.4%
- Spain’s IBEX 35: -2.3%
European weakness reflects Brent crude’s return to $100/bbl, with energy shares outperforming while industrial and military names lag. A profit miss from a large Spanish retailer added to regional pressure.
Economic Data
Released Today:
- MBA Mortgage Applications Index: -2.7% (prior week: +0.8%)
- China August CPI: +0.4% m/m (expected +0.3%; prior -0.1%); +0.8% yr/yr (as expected; prior +0.5%)
- China August PPI: +3.8% yr/yr (expected +3.6%; prior +3.5%)
- Japan September Reuters Tankan Index: 21 (prior 18)
- Japan August Machine Tool Orders: +64.7% yr/yr (prior +50.4%)
- South Korea August Unemployment Rate: 2.7% (prior 2.8%)
- France July Industrial Production: -0.4% m/m (expected +0.2%; prior -0.1%)
No additional top-tier U.S. economic releases are scheduled today.
Looking Ahead
- Today (09-Sep-26): $39 billion 10-year Treasury note auction at 13:00 ET.
- Thursday (10-Sep-26): August Producer Price Index (PPI) release — a key input for FOMC rate expectations.
- Friday (11-Sep-26): August Consumer Price Index (CPI) release — viewed as the decisive data point for whether the FOMC raises rates at next week’s meeting. CME FedWatch currently assigns a 58.4% probability to a 25-bp hike.
- September 15-16: FOMC meeting.
- September 21: S&P 500 index changes take effect — Everpure (P) and Bloom Energy (BE) join the index, replacing The Trade Desk (TTD) and others.
- Next Thursday: Japan’s cabinet reshuffle expected, per Asahi.
Geopolitical developments in the Middle East remain a key swing factor for oil prices and broader risk sentiment heading into the CPI print and FOMC decision.