Market Summary
U.S. equity futures point to a lower open on Tuesday, with S&P 500 futures trading 27.00 points below fair value and Nasdaq futures off 23.00 points as of 08:07 ET, following a weekend exchange of strikes between the U.S. and Iran that has pushed crude oil sharply higher. The pressure comes on the heels of a volatile week in which the major averages finished little changed: the S&P 500 closed Friday at 7718.60 (-29.11, -0.4%), the DJIA at 53414.25 (-271.86, -0.5%), and the Nasdaq Composite at 26528.04 (-77.07, -0.3%), as a stronger-than-expected August Employment Report reignited concerns over a September rate hike and interrupted a mid-week rebound.
For the week, the tape showed considerable divergence beneath a largely flat surface. The S&P 500 gained 0.1%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4%, the Russell 2000 and S&P Mid Cap 400 each added roughly 0.1-0.2%, while the DJIA slipped 0.3%. Energy (+2.3%) was the top-performing sector as WTI crude surged roughly 10% on renewed Iran hostilities, while Technology (+1.1%) benefited from a 2.3% weekly advance in the PHLX Semiconductor Index. That strength was offset by steep losses in Consumer Discretionary (-2.1%), Materials (-1.6%), Real Estate (-1.3%), and Industrials (-1.1%), with software names also sliding as the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF fell 4.5% on post-earnings disappointments from names like Adobe and lululemon.
Heading into Tuesday’s session, focus shifts squarely to inflation data, with August PPI due Thursday and August CPI on Friday, both seen as pivotal inputs ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool currently assigns roughly a 60% probability to a 25-basis-point hike. Overnight, weaker Asian markets (Nikkei -1.70%) and a modest pullback in Europe set a cautious tone, while corporate headlines included reports that Anthropic will begin IPO marketing in October and continued strength in Intel shares on pricing-hike speculation.
Market Snapshot
Index Levels (Last Close, Friday 09/04/26):
- S&P 500: 7718.60 (-29.11, -0.4%)
- DJIA: 53414.25 (-271.86, -0.5%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 26528.04 (-77.07, -0.3%)
- Russell 2000: +0.3% (session), +0.1% (week)
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +0.1% (session), +0.2% (week)
Weekly Performance:
- Nasdaq Composite: +0.4% WTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +0.2% WTD
- Russell 2000: +0.1% WTD
- S&P 500: +0.1% WTD
- DJIA: -0.3% WTD
Pre-Market Futures (08:07 ET):
- S&P futures vs. fair value: -27.00
- Nasdaq futures vs. fair value: -23.00
Market Breadth (WaveFinder, 09/08/26):
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bullish
- Primary Bulls/Bears: 1,033 / 741
- 4% Sentiment: Neutral (Bulls 0 / Bears 0)
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Neutral
- % of Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 20%
- % of Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 44.38%
- 9-Month Bulls/Bears: 0 / 0 (0% follow-through)
Sector Performance
Ranked by most recent available Briefing.com weekly performance data, with WaveFinder same-day ATR (volatility) context where noted:
1. Energy: +2.3% (week) | ATR 2.54% (flat, P47)
2. Technology: +1.1% (week) | ATR -0.84% (flat, P68)
3. Financials: Unchanged (week) | ATR 0.93% (flat, P53)
4. Communication Services: -0.9% (Friday session) | ATR 1.32% (falling, P21)
5. Industrials: -1.1% (week) | ATR -1.85% (falling, P0)
6. Real Estate: -1.3% (week) | ATR -2.23% (falling, P0)
7. Materials: -1.6% (week) | ATR 0.00% (flat, P0)
8. Consumer Discretionary: -2.1% (week) | ATR -0.69% (flat, P0)
9. Health Care: Not reported | ATR 2.10% (falling, P26)
10. Consumer Staples: Not reported | ATR 0.16% (flat, P5)
11. Utilities: Not reported | ATR -2.28% (flat, P26)
Note: Weekly % change reflects Briefing.com’s 08/31-09/04 Weekly Wrap; Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities performance figures were not provided in source data. Within Technology, semiconductors sharply outperformed software (PHLX Semiconductor Index +2.3% week vs. iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF -4.5% week).
Key Earnings & Movers
- Intel (INTC): 100.25, +4.45 (+4.7%) — trading higher premarket amid reports of potential price increases.
- Roivant (ROIV): 41.38, +6.45 (+18.47%) — surged after Phase 2 PHocus study of mosliciguat in PH-ILD met primary and secondary endpoints; Phase 3 PHrontier study now underway.
- lululemon athletica (LULU): 100.61, -21.16 (-17.38%) on Friday — plunged below $100 for the first time in years after Q2 revenue fell 4% yr/yr to $2.42 bln (below expectations) and management cut FY27 guidance for a second straight quarter.
- Tesla (TSLA): 354.08, -22.28 (-5.92%) on Friday — gave back prior-day rally.
- Adobe (ADBE): 266.51, -19.24 (-6.73%) on Friday — declined after naming a new CEO.
- Sandisk (SNDK): 1740.00, +185.01 (+11.90%) on Thursday — surged on stronger DRAM/NAND pricing and robust server demand.
- NVIDIA (NVDA): 220.50, +2.95 (+1.36%) on Monday — extended post-earnings semiconductor strength.
- CrowdStrike (CRWD): 231.00, +12.60 (+5.77%) on Monday — top S&P 500 performer, extending post-earnings advance.
- DocuSign (DOCU): Trading higher after Q2 beat; IAM platform adoption now 15.1% of ARR; raised FY27 ARR growth outlook to +8.5-9.0% from +8.25-8.75%.
- Anthropic: Reportedly set to begin IPO marketing in October, per Bloomberg.
Stock Spotlight
lululemon athletica (LULU) delivered the week’s most notable negative surprise, with shares tumbling 17.38% to $100.61 on Friday — falling below the psychologically important $100 level for the first time in several years. While Q2 (July) EPS of $2.92 topped prior guidance (aided by a $0.86 benefit from tariff refunds), it declined from $3.10 a year ago, and revenue fell 4% yr/yr to $2.42 billion, missing expectations. The core issue was traffic: overall comps declined 9% (10% in constant currency), with Americas comps down 12% (versus a 5% decline in Q1) and international comps down 3% (6% in CC). China, formerly a growth engine, reversed hard with comps down 8% in CC. The core leggings category fell approximately 20%.
Margins told a similarly troubling story beneath a headline beat — gross margin of 60.5% included a 560-bp tariff-refund benefit, while product margin actually declined 150 bps on tariffs and markdowns, and fixed-cost deleverage subtracted another 230 bps. Operating margin fell 190 bps to 18.8% despite the tariff windfall. Most damaging to sentiment was guidance: LULU issued Q3 EPS guidance of $0.93-0.98, well below expectations, and cut FY27 guidance significantly for the second consecutive quarter — all against the backdrop of an ongoing CEO transition. Management is responding with increased H2 marketing investment and a more aggressive inventory-chase strategy (~20% higher chase volume yr/yr), but the scale of the guidance cut has investors questioning whether the brand can stabilize traffic trends in its two largest markets.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Treasuries are on track for a modestly lower start Tuesday after a subdued overnight session. As of 07:54 ET:
- 2-yr: 4.38%, unchanged
- 3-yr: 4.46%, +1 bp
- 5-yr: 4.56%, +1 bp
- 10-yr: 4.80% (-4/32), +1 bp
- 30-yr: 5.26%, +1 bp
Friday’s session saw the 10-yr note yield finish at 4.784%, rising a net six basis points on the week to 4.78% after the stronger-than-expected August jobs report reversed an initially firmer bond tone. The CME FedWatch Tool now assigns roughly a 60% probability to a 25-bp hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Key driver overnight: rising crude oil prices following U.S.-Iran hostilities, alongside a mixed batch of Asian and European data. The U.S. Treasury will auction $58 billion in 3-year notes this afternoon at 13:00 ET, with no top-tier domestic data on the calendar today. USD/JPY stands at 154.28; EUR/USD is at 1.1613 (-0.1%); the U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 98.93.
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil: $93.90/bbl, +2.7% — rising to its highest level since early June on U.S.-Iran hostilities.
- Gold: $4,449.40/ozt, -0.6%
- Copper: $6.84/lb, +2.4%
- Silver: Not reported in available data.
Overseas Markets
Asia (Overnight):
- Nikkei (Japan): 65,269.33, -1,130.50 (-1.70%)
- Hang Seng (Hong Kong): 25,317.18, -96.00 (-0.40%)
- Shanghai Composite (China): +0.2%
- Sensex (India): -0.7%
- Kospi (South Korea): -0.6%
- ASX All Ordinaries (Australia): -0.9%
Key drivers: Markets digested China’s August trade data and revised Japanese Q2 GDP figures. Also in focus: South Korea’s plan for a $200 billion U.S. investment project including a gas power plant and eight nuclear plants.
Europe:
- STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%
- DAX (Germany): -0.1%
- FTSE 100 (U.K.): -0.1%
- CAC 40 (France): Unchanged
- FTSE MIB (Italy): -0.4%
- IBEX 35 (Spain): -0.3%
Key drivers: Attention centers on Thursday’s widely expected ECB rate hike decision, along with political turmoil in Germany after the AfD doubled its support in a weekend Saxony-Anhalt election, and speculation that U.K. Chancellor Healey could announce tax increases in the Autumn budget address.
Economic Data
- August NFIB Small Business Optimism Index: 98.7 vs. 99.3 Briefing.com consensus; prior 99.8 (softer than expected).
- China August trade surplus: CNY809.30 bln vs. CNY805.00 bln expected (prior CNY767.07 bln); imports +28.2% yr/yr vs. +30.0% expected; exports +25.0% yr/yr, as expected.
- Japan Q2 GDP: +0.4% qtr/qtr vs. +0.3% expected (prior +0.5%); Capital Expenditure -0.9% qtr/qtr; Private Consumption unchanged; July Overall Wage Income +4.7% yr/yr vs. +3.9% expected.
- Germany July trade surplus: EUR21.3 bln vs. EUR16.0 bln expected (prior EUR15.4 bln).
- France July trade deficit: EUR6.7 bln vs. EUR6.0 bln expected (prior EUR5.8 bln).
No major U.S. data has shifted premarket sentiment; the modest futures weakness is being driven primarily by rising crude oil prices rather than today’s economic releases.
Looking Ahead
- Today (09/08): July Consumer Credit at 15:00 ET (Briefing.com consensus $11.3B; prior $14.2B); $58 billion 3-year Treasury note auction at 13:00 ET.
- Thursday (09/10): August Producer Price Index (PPI); ECB rate decision, widely expected to include a rate hike with markets watching for signals on a possible December move.
- Friday (09/11): August Consumer Price Index (CPI) — a pivotal release likely to shape rate-hike expectations heading into the September FOMC meeting.
- September 15-16: FOMC meeting — markets currently price in roughly a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.