Market Summary
Equity futures point to a mixed-to-flat open on Friday, September 4, as investors brace for the pivotal August Employment Report due at 8:30 a.m. ET. S&P 500 futures are trading 4.00 points below fair value, while Nasdaq futures are firmly higher, up 120.00 points above fair value, as early strength in semiconductor names lifts the tech-heavy index. The report carries outsized importance for the market’s read on the FOMC’s next move, with the odds of a September rate hold sitting near coin-flip territory following Wednesday’s dovish commentary from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a voting FOMC member.
Today’s session follows a strong Thursday rebound in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 624.16 points (+1.2%) to 53,686.11, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 366.23 points (+1.4%) to 26,605.11, and the S&P 500 climbed 81.11 points (+1.1%) to 7,747.71. The advance was broad-based, with the Russell 2000 (+0.5%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.9%) also participating. Easing Treasury yields provided the key tailwind, with the 10-year note yield falling three basis points to 4.76% after Waller signaled comfort with holding rates steady absent negative data surprises. Mega-cap growth, financials, and software led the charge, while semiconductors and select consumer names lagged.
Heading into today’s jobs report, WaveFinder breadth data shows a “Very Bullish” primary sentiment reading, with 1,053 bulls versus 793 bears, though only 43.66% of names sit above their 40-day moving average and just 11% remain above their 20-day moving average — suggesting underlying participation remains narrower than the headline sentiment implies. Corporate news is dominated by earnings reactions, with Samsara surging on a strong beat, DocuSign edging higher on in-line guidance, and Lululemon cratering over 20% on a steep guidance cut.
Market Snapshot
Index Levels (Thursday, 09/03 close):
- DJIA: 53,686.11 (+624.16, +1.2%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 26,605.11 (+366.23, +1.4%)
- S&P 500: 7,747.71 (+81.11, +1.1%)
- Russell 2000: +0.5% (session); +19.6% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +0.9% (session); +14.4% YTD
Year-to-Date Performance:
- Russell 2000: +19.6%
- Nasdaq Composite: +14.4%
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +14.4%
- S&P 500: +13.2%
- DJIA: +11.7%
Friday Pre-Market Futures:
- S&P futures: -4.00 vs. fair value
- Nasdaq futures: +120.00 vs. fair value
Market Breadth (WaveFinder, 09/04):
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bullish (Bulls 1,053 | Bears 793)
- 4% Sentiment: Neutral (0 Bulls | 0 Bears)
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Neutral
- Stocks Above 20-Day SMA: 11%
- Stocks Above 40-Day SMA: 43.66%
- 9-Month Bulls/Bears: 0 / 0; Bull Follow-Through: 0%
Sector Performance
Thursday Session Leaders/Laggards (Briefing.com):
1. Financials: +1.6% — broad bank participation; HOOD +16.57%, COIN +10.14%
2. Consumer Discretionary: +1.6% — led by TSLA +5.42%
3. Communication Services: +1.5% — META +3.01%
4. Information Technology: +1.3% — software rebound offset semi weakness (iShares GS Software ETF +3.4%)
5. Materials: -0.5%
6. Energy: -0.7% (widest sector loss)
Health Care, Industrials, Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Real Estate performance figures were not specified in Thursday’s session data.
WaveFinder Sector Volatility (ATR, 09/04):
- Energy: +3.17% (rising, P68) — most volatile
- Communication Services: +2.25% (falling, P53)
- Health Care: +2.21% (falling, P26)
- Financials: +1.24% (falling, P79)
- Materials: +0.48% (falling, P5)
- Consumer Staples: +0.39% (flat, P32)
- Consumer Discretionary: -0.04% (falling, P37)
- Technology: -1.41% (falling, P16)
- Industrials: -1.44% (falling, P16)
- Utilities: -1.87% (flat, P42)
- Real Estate: -1.87% (falling, P5)
Key Earnings & Movers
Pre-Market (Friday, 09/04):
- Samsara (IOT) 44.20, +5.45 (+14.06%) — beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates; revenue up 29.9% YoY
- DocuSign (DOCU) 67.00, +1.03 (+1.56%) — better-than-expected Q2 earnings/revenue; in-line Q3 and FY revenue guidance
- Lululemon (LULU) 86.74, -25.03 (-20.6%) — beat EPS by $1.13 but missed revenue; guided Q3 EPS/revenue below consensus; lowered FY27 outlook below consensus
- United Microelectronics (UMC) 20.57, +0.71 (+3.58%) — August sales +30.7% YoY; YTD sales +14.7%
Thursday Session Movers:
- Snowflake (SNOW) 356.24, +50.40 (+16.48%) — impressive earnings beat
- Robinhood Markets (HOOD) 124.72, +17.73 (+16.57%) — rode crypto rally
- Coinbase Global (COIN) 192.70, +17.74 (+10.14%) — Bitcoin surged above $80,000
- Dell (DELL) 515.94, +23.74 (+4.82%) — extended post-earnings momentum to new all-time high
- Tesla (TSLA) 376.36, +19.36 (+5.42%)
- Meta Platforms (META) 610.68, +17.83 (+3.01%)
- Microsoft (MSFT) 510.12, +13.30 (+2.68%) — announced major reporting overhaul
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) 54.44, +2.61 (+5.03%) — fell despite broad earnings beat and above-consensus Q4 guidance (recovered into close)
- Broadcom (AVGO) 357.16, -10.08 (-2.74%) — post-earnings decline despite beat, on elevated AI/Q4 expectations
- Tyson Foods (TSN) 51.77, -4.04 (-7.24%) — lowered FY26 revenue guidance
- Campbell’s Company (CPB) 22.12, -1.66 (-6.96%) — disappointing FY27 outlook
Stock Spotlight
Microsoft (MSFT) — Reporting Overhaul Sharpens the AI/Cloud Narrative
Microsoft shares rose 2.68% Thursday to $510.12 after the company announced a significant overhaul of its segment reporting structure, consolidating three existing segments into two: Agents and Infra, and Devices and Consumer. Effective with the new fiscal year and first appearing in the September quarter, the change is designed to better capture Microsoft’s increasingly AI- and cloud-centric business mix. The new Agents and Infra segment — which will become the core of the business — houses Azure, Microsoft 365 cloud, GitHub, server licensing, Dynamics, and LinkedIn, with Q1 revenue guidance of $75.15-75.75 billion. Devices and Consumer, encompassing Search and Advertising, Xbox, Windows OEM, and devices, is guided to just $14.7-15.2 billion, underscoring how dominant cloud and AI have become to Microsoft’s growth story.
Notably, Microsoft is also cleaning up its Azure metric by moving GitHub cloud, developer cloud services, and Security Copilot out of the Azure line, and will begin reporting Azure revenue in dollar terms rather than percentage growth alone — with Q1 Azure growth guided at +44-45% constant currency. This should provide a cleaner, more direct comparison against Amazon’s AWS. Microsoft also reaffirmed its company-wide revenue outlook and Q1 capital expenditure guidance of more than $50 billion, signaling its aggressive AI infrastructure buildout remains fully intact. Briefing.com’s analysis frames the move as a welcome change that should sharpen investor visibility into the businesses most levered to enterprise cloud and AI spending.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Friday Pre-Market Levels (09/04, 07:51 ET):
- 2-Year: 4.35% (+2 bps)
- 3-Year: 4.41% (unchanged)
- 5-Year: 4.51% (unchanged)
- 10-Year: 4.76% (unchanged)
- 30-Year: 5.24% (unchanged)
Treasuries are on track for a slightly lower start in shorter tenors after Thursday’s outperformance, with the long end set for a flat open. Positioning could shift quickly once the August Employment Situation report crosses the wires at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Thursday Close (09/03):
- 2-Year: 4.33% (-6 bps)
- 3-Year: 4.41% (-4 bps)
- 5-Year: 4.51% (-4 bps)
- 10-Year: 4.76% (-3 bps)
- 30-Year: 5.24% (-2 bps)
Thursday’s rally was driven by Fed Governor Waller’s comments indicating he would vote to hold rates steady in September absent negative data surprises, alongside signs of disinflation. The Atlanta Fed trimmed its Q3 GDPNow forecast to 4.7% from 4.8% following the day’s data batch (jobless claims, unit labor costs, ISM Services). Separately, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is reportedly considering trimming its U.S. Treasury allocation to 50% from 70% of its overall asset mix — a headline worth monitoring for longer-term demand implications.
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil: $90.69/bbl, -0.7% (giving back Thursday’s gains)
- Gold: $4,513.90/ozt, -0.6%
- Copper: $6.654/lb, -0.2%
Thursday’s session saw WTI settle $0.39 higher (+0.4%) at $91.35/bbl, with the modest increase doing little to disrupt the equity rally; the energy sector still finished with the widest sector loss (-0.7%) on the day.
Overseas Markets
Asia (09/04):
- Nikkei 225: 65,020.94, +806.50 (+1.30%)
- Hang Seng: 25,650.87, +437.60 (+1.70%)
- Shanghai Composite: -0.3%
- Kospi: +1.6%
- Sensex: +0.5%
- ASX All Ordinaries: unchanged
JGBs extended their bounce off 2026 lows across the curve. Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama confirmed the fiscal 2027-28 budget will reach a record JPY143 trillion. Japan’s July Household Spending rose just 0.5% m/m (vs. 2.6% expected) and fell 3.6% yr/yr (vs. -1.6% expected). South Korea’s July Current Account surplus narrowed to $42.08 billion from $49.73 billion.
Europe (09/04):
- STOXX Europe 600: +0.1%
- Germany’s DAX: +0.3%
- U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.1%
- France’s CAC 40: -0.1%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.3%
- Spain’s IBEX 35: unchanged
Focus centered on sovereign-asset allocation (Norway’s wealth fund Treasury trim) and energy policy, with the U.K. looking to approve new North Sea oil-drilling efforts. Eurozone July Retail Sales fell 0.6% m/m (vs. +0.3% expected), while Germany’s July Factory Orders jumped 2.5% m/m (vs. +0.3% expected). Italy’s July Retail Sales declined 0.4% m/m.
Currencies:
- USD/JPY: 156.20, +0.3%
- EUR/USD: 1.1621, unchanged
- GBP/USD: 1.3534, +0.1%
- USD/CNH: 6.7093, -0.1%
- U.S. Dollar Index: 99.07, +0.2%
Economic Data
Released Today (Pending, 8:30 a.m. ET):
- August Nonfarm Payrolls: consensus 45K; prior -23K
- August Nonfarm Private Payrolls: consensus 45K; prior 30K
- August Unemployment Rate: consensus 4.2%; prior 4.1%
- August Average Hourly Earnings: consensus 0.2%; prior 0.1%
- August Average Workweek: consensus 34.3; prior 34.3
This report is the key catalyst of the session, with the market poised to reassess FOMC rate-hold probabilities depending on the outcome.
Thursday’s Data (09/03):
- July Trade Balance: -$88.6B (consensus -$89.6B; prior revised to -$71.2B from -$73.3B) — widening deficit seen as a drag on Q3 GDP estimates
- Q2 Productivity (Revised): 1.4% (consensus 1.4%; prior 1.4%)
- Q2 Unit Labor Costs (Revised): 1.2% (consensus 1.3%; prior 1.3%) — downward revision helped ease inflation concerns
- Weekly Initial Jobless Claims: 206K (consensus 205K; prior revised to 204K from 203K)
- Weekly Continuing Claims: 1.779M (prior revised to 1.771M)
Looking Ahead
- 8:30 a.m. ET (Today): August Employment Situation Report — Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Average Workweek — the session’s primary catalyst and a key input for September FOMC rate-hold probabilities.
- Fed Watch: Markets will continue parsing the report against Governor Waller’s dovish-leaning commentary, with the CME FedWatch Tool having shown a 49.6% probability of a September hold (up from 36.8% the prior day) heading into today’s data.
- Corporate Radar: Continued reaction to Lululemon’s steep guidance cut, Samsara’s earnings beat, and DocuSign’s in-line guidance will remain in focus as trading develops.
- Global Watch: Continued monitoring of yen strength/intervention speculation, Norway sovereign wealth fund Treasury allocation shifts, and next week’s ECB policy meeting (expected rate hike per Thursday’s bond market commentary).