Market Summary
U.S. equity futures are pointing to a lower open on Monday, August 31, with S&P 500 futures trading 28.00 points below fair value and Nasdaq 100 futures off 50.00 points versus fair value as of 8:05 AM ET. The pre-market weakness follows a choppy end to last week, in which the major averages pulled back Friday after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole address sent Treasury yields sharply higher and pushed September rate-hike odds up to roughly 57.5%–60% from about 35%–40% earlier in the week. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,711.76 (-19.23, -0.3%), the Nasdaq Composite at 26,423.47 (-138.93, -0.5%), and the DJIA at 53,559.99 (-9.45, essentially flat).
Despite Friday’s retreat, all three major averages posted weekly gains — the S&P 500 and DJIA each added 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite led with a 1.9% advance — powered almost entirely by mega-cap growth and software earnings strength (NVIDIA and a host of software names delivered standout results). That leadership masked broad underlying weakness: the Russell 2000 fell 1.5% and the S&P Mid Cap 400 declined 1.3% for the week as rising short-end yields disproportionately pressured smaller-cap issuers.
This morning’s tone is being shaped by a geopolitical flare-up rather than domestic data. Crude oil is spiking after Axios reported the U.S. struck Iranian missile launchers preparing to deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran retaliating against a U.S. base in Jordan — WTI is up roughly 3.6%-3.9% to the mid-$86/bbl range. There are no U.S. economic releases scheduled today, with attention increasingly turning to Friday’s August Employment Report as the next major catalyst for Fed policy expectations.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Last Close (28-Aug) | Change | Pre-Market Futures Indication |
|—|—|—|—|
| S&P 500 | 7,711.76 | -19.23 (-0.3%) | -28.00 pts vs. fair value |
| DJIA | 53,559.99 | -9.45 (flat) | N/A (futures +97 pts Fri AM) |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,423.47 | -138.93 (-0.5%) | -50.00 pts vs. fair value |
| Russell 2000 | — | -1.4% (Fri session) | — |
| S&P Mid Cap 400 | — | -1.2% (Fri session) | — |
Week-to-Date: Nasdaq +1.9% | S&P 500 +0.5% | DJIA +0.5% | S&P Mid Cap 400 -1.3% | Russell 2000 -1.5%
WaveFinder Breadth (as of 8/31):
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bullish | 4% Sentiment: Neutral | 40-SMA Sentiment: Bearish
- Primary Bulls/Bears: 1,081 / 786
- Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 11%
- Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 45.94%
The stark gap between Very Bullish primary sentiment and a Bearish 40-SMA read, alongside only 11% of names above their 20-day moving average, reinforces the narrative of narrow, mega-cap-driven leadership masking weak broad-market participation.
Sector Performance
Week-to-Date (week ended 28-Aug-26):
1. Information Technology: +1.8%
2. Communication Services: +1.6%
3. Financials: +1.1%
4. Real Estate: -1.3%
5. Industrials: -1.7%
6. Health Care: -2.0%
7. Energy: -2.0%
(Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Utilities, Materials weekly figures not specified in source data)
Friday Session (28-Aug-26):
1. Consumer Discretionary: +1.7% (AMZN, GOOG strength)
2. Communication Services: +1.6%
3. Financials: +0.3%
4. Industrials: -1.0%
5. Utilities: -1.1%
6. Information Technology: -1.3% (semiconductor-led weakness)
(Six of eleven S&P 500 sectors finished lower Friday)
WaveFinder Sector ATR (Volatility, as of 8/31):
- Communication Services: 3.05% (rising, P89) — highest volatility percentile
- Health Care: 2.65% (flat, P47)
- Energy: 2.48% (falling, P68)
- Financials: 0.81% (rising, P32)
- Materials: 0.87% (falling, P0)
- Consumer Staples: 0.66% (flat, P42)
- Technology: -1.10% (flat, P11)
- Real Estate: -1.39% (falling, P0)
- Industrials: -1.32% (falling, P0)
- Utilities: -2.53% (falling, P0)
- Consumer Discretionary: -0.25% (falling, P5)
Key Earnings & Movers
Pre-Market Gainers (31-Aug):
- SAIC 136.77, +10.81 (+8.58%) — Beat fiscal Q2 EPS/revenue expectations, raised FY27 guidance
- GDEV 11.56, +0.69 (+6.35%) — Launched $20 million cash self-tender offer
- IperionX (IPX) 21.93, +0.92 (+4.38%) — Received second U.S. Army titanium production task order
- NVDA 218.76, +1.21 (+0.6%) — Continued momentum after last week’s earnings
Friday Session (28-Aug) Movers:
- PYPL 53.66, -7.81 (-12.71%) — Worst S&P 500 performer
- MRVL 216.62, -24.83 (-10.28%) — Post-earnings pullback despite raised guidance
- WDAY 204.72, +11.15 (+5.76%) — Strong earnings reaction
- AMZN 266.43, +10.17 (+3.97%)
- AAPL 319.70, +5.12 (+1.63%)
- MSFT 513.53, +8.47 (+1.68%)
- GOOG 342.88, +5.17 (+1.53%)
- NVDA 217.48, -10.50 (-4.61%) — Gave back post-earnings gains amid broad semi selloff
Friday Pre-Market (28-Aug) Earnings Winners/Losers: ESTC +25%, GAP +18%, AFRM +11% | MRVL -8%, RBRK -5%, ADSK -4%
Monday (24/25-Aug) Movers: WMT 106.49, +2.79 (+2.69%); CAT 811.02, -16.88 (-2.04%); BA 210.46, -3.74 (-1.75%)
Stock Spotlight
Marvell Technology (MRVL) delivered a headline-grabbing quarter that nonetheless triggered an 8-10% selloff, illustrating how elevated expectations can overshadow strong fundamentals. Q2 (July) revenue grew 36.5% yr/yr to a record $2.74 billion, with Data Center revenue up 46% yr/yr to $2.17 billion. Q3 guidance called for Data Center growth of 75% yr/yr and more than 20% sequentially. More importantly, Marvell raised its longer-term outlook meaningfully — FY27 revenue guidance moved to $12 billion (+45%) from $11.5 billion, and FY28 guidance rose to $18 billion (+50%) from $16.5 billion (+45%) — reinforcing the bullish AI infrastructure narrative around interconnect, optical DSPs, switching, and Custom silicon.
The stock’s decline reflects positioning rather than fundamentals: MRVL had rallied more than 40% since late July heading into the print, and following NVIDIA’s own strong report earlier in the week, investors wanted a clearer above-consensus beat. Non-GAAP gross margin came in at 58.9% for Q2, but guidance calls for a slight sequential contraction to 57.5%-58.5% in Q3 as the ramping Custom business creates near-term mix pressure. Briefing.com’s analysis frames the pullback as a function of stretched expectations rather than a deteriorating growth story, given the broad-based acceleration across Marvell’s AI portfolio.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Overnight Levels (31-Aug, 8:06 AM ET):
- 2-yr: 4.33% (-2 bps)
- 3-yr: 4.38% (-2 bps)
- 5-yr: 4.47% (-1 bp)
- 10-yr: 4.72% (unchanged, +1/32)
- 30-yr: 5.22% (+1 bp)
Friday Close (28-Aug) / Weekly Change:
- 2-yr: 4.35% (+12 bps day, +12 bps week) — highest close of the year on 3s/5s
- 3-yr: 4.40% (+10 bps day, +9 bps week)
- 5-yr: 4.48% (+9 bps day, +6 bps week) — highest since early 2025
- 10-yr: 4.72% (+5 bps day, -2 bps week)
- 30-yr: 5.21% (+2 bps day, -7 bps week)
The dominant driver remains Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address, in which he emphasized that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target and that price stability should be the central bank’s predominant focus, while flagging the recent rise in commodity prices as an inflation risk to watch. That messaging drove September rate-hike probability sharply higher (57.5%-60% vs. 35%-40% prior), disproportionately pressuring the front end of the curve. The 2s10s spread tightened 14 bps to 37 bps on the week after widening from 27 bps to 52 bps over the prior two months. G20 finance ministers and central bank governors are meeting in Asheville, NC today and tomorrow.
Commodities
- WTI Crude: $86.63/bbl, +3.9% (overnight); alternate intraday figure of $86.39, +$2.97 (+3.6%) also cited amid U.S.-Iran hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz
- Gold: $4,505.00/ozt, -0.6%
- Copper: $6.687/lb, +0.4%
- Silver: Not reported in available data
Crude’s jump follows reports that the U.S. struck Iranian mine-laying launchers near the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran retaliating against a U.S. base in Jordan. This adds to a volatile week for oil — WTI had fallen roughly 4.3%-4.2% ($3.69/bbl) over the prior week amid swinging Iran-related headlines.
Overseas Markets
Asia-Pacific (mixed session):
- Nikkei 225: 66,311.93, -93.60 (-0.1%)
- Hang Seng: 25,566.99, -17.80 (-0.1%)
- Shanghai Composite: +0.9%
- Sensex (India): -0.4%
- Kospi (South Korea): +0.5%
- ASX All Ordinaries (Australia): -0.3%
China’s August Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.8 (better than the 49.5 expected but still in contraction) and Non-Manufacturing PMI at 49.0 (below the 49.5 expected), keeping business activity readings in contraction territory. Japan PM Takaichi’s cabinet approval held at 53% per Asahi polling.
Europe (mixed; U.K. closed for bank holiday):
- STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%
- DAX (Germany): -0.7%
- CAC 40 (France): +0.2%
- FTSE MIB (Italy): +0.4%
- IBEX 35 (Spain): +0.2%
Fitch affirmed France’s A+ rating with a stable outlook, while Iceland voted against reopening EU accession talks.
Economic Data
Today (31-Aug): No U.S. economic releases scheduled.
Overnight International Data:
- China: August Manufacturing PMI 49.8 (exp. 49.5, prior 49.2); Non-Manufacturing PMI 49.0 (exp. 49.5, prior 49.0)
- Japan: July Retail Sales +4.0% yr/yr (exp. 3.2%, prior 0.6%); Housing Starts +8.2% yr/yr (exp. 7.2%, prior 18.6%); Construction Orders -13.4% yr/yr (prior +2.3%)
- South Korea: July Retail Sales -2.4% m/m (prior +2.7%); Service Sector Output -1.3% m/m (prior +0.7%); Industrial Production +0.2% m/m / +3.6% yr/yr (prior +6.7% m/m / +6.0% yr/yr)
- Hong Kong: July Retail Sales +4.5% yr/yr (prior +4.6%)
- Australia: Q2 Company Gross Operating Profits +1.8% qtr/qtr (exp. 2.0%, prior -1.5%); Pre-tax Profits +12.5% qtr/qtr (prior -4.1%); July Private Sector Credit +0.6% m/m (exp. 0.7%, prior 0.8%); Housing Credit +0.5% m/m (prior 0.6%); August MI Inflation Gauge +0.5% m/m (prior 1.0%)
- New Zealand: August ANZ Business Confidence 53.7 (prior 56.1)
- India: Q1 GDP +7.8% yr/yr (exp. 7.1%, prior 7.8%)
- Spain: June Current Account surplus EUR2.41 bln (prior surplus EUR1.84 bln)
No U.S. data today means markets remain focused on geopolitical headlines and positioning ahead of Friday’s payrolls report.
Looking Ahead
- Wednesday (2-Sep): Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy statement (potential rate-hike signal)
- Friday (4-Sep): August U.S. Employment Report — critical for reshaping Fed rate-hike expectations following Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole tone
- This week: President Trump expected to discuss high fuel prices with oil refiners, per Bloomberg
- Ongoing (31-Aug to 1-Sep): G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Asheville, NC
- Markets will continue monitoring U.S.-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz for further oil-price and risk-sentiment impact