Market Summary
U.S. equities closed out a choppy Friday session modestly lower, with the S&P 500 falling 19.23 points (-0.25%) to 7711.76 and the Nasdaq Composite dropping 138.93 points (-0.52%) to 26423.47, while the DJIA was essentially flat, down just 9.45 points (-0.02%) to 53559.99. The session was dominated by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address, in which he reiterated that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target and that price stability should be the central bank’s predominant focus. That hawkish tone triggered a sharp repricing of rate-hike expectations, with the implied probability of a 25-basis-point September hike jumping to roughly 57.5%-60% from just 35.4%-40% a day earlier.
The hawkish shift sent Treasury yields higher across the curve, with the pressure concentrated at the front end. Small- and mid-cap stocks bore the brunt of the selling, as the Russell 2000 fell 1.4% and the S&P Mid Cap 400 dropped 1.2%, while mega-cap strength in Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, and Microsoft helped cushion the headline indices. Semiconductors were the single largest drag, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index plunging 3.5% as NVIDIA and Marvell both retreated sharply following their respective earnings reports. Six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors finished lower, led by information technology (-1.3%), even as consumer discretionary (+1.7%) and communication services (+1.6%) paced the gainers.
Despite Friday’s pullback, all three major averages closed the week higher — the Nasdaq (+1.9%), S&P 500 (+0.5%), and DJIA (+0.5%) — even as the Russell 2000 (-1.5%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-1.3%) finished lower for the week. The divergence underscored a market in which concentrated mega-cap and software strength masked considerable weakness beneath the surface, a dynamic that carries directly into Monday’s pre-market session amid a hawkish policy backdrop and rising yields.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 53,559.99 | -9.45 | -0.02% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,423.47 | -138.93 | -0.52% |
| S&P 500 | 7,711.76 | -19.23 | -0.25% |
Breadth (NYSE): Advancers 1,141 | Decliners 1,570 | Volume 1.01 bln
Breadth (Nasdaq): Advancers 1,512 | Decliners 3,399 | Volume 8.51 bln
WaveFinder Market Breadth (as of 8/28):
- Primary Sentiment: Bullish (Bulls 781 / Bears 542)
- 4% Sentiment: Very Bearish (Bulls 76 / Bears 333)
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Neutral
- Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 19%
- Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 50.96%
- 9-Month Bulls: 7 | Bears: 26 (Bull Follow-Through: 9.8%)
The stark contrast between negative headline-index moves, deeply negative decliner-to-advancer ratios, and only 19% of stocks trading above their 20-day moving average confirms a narrow, mega-cap-driven tape masking broader deterioration.
Sector Performance
Ranked by Friday’s session performance (Briefing.com Industry Watch classification with available % changes):
1. Consumer Discretionary — Strong, +1.7% (led by AMZN)
2. Communication Services — Strong, +1.6% (led by GOOG)
3. Financials — Strong, +0.3%
4. Consumer Staples — Strong (% not specified)
5. Energy — Strong (% not specified)
6. Materials — Weak (% not specified)
7. Real Estate — Weak (% not specified)
8. Industrials — Weak, -1.0%
9. Utilities — Weak, -1.1%
10. Information Technology — Weak, -1.3% (semiconductor-driven weakness)
Note: Health Care was not classified in Friday’s Strong/Weak list but declined -2.0% for the week per the Weekly Wrap.
WaveFinder Sector ATR (Volatility):
- Communication Services: 2.98% (rising, P89) — elevated volatility
- Health Care: 2.59% (flat, P47)
- Energy: 2.33% (falling, P63)
- Materials: 1.00% (flat, P16)
- Financials: 0.81% (rising, P32)
- Consumer Staples: 0.66% (flat, P47)
- Technology: -1.06% (flat, P11)
- Real Estate: -1.23% (flat, P0)
- Industrials: -1.25% (falling, P0)
- Utilities: -2.37% (falling, P5)
Key Earnings & Movers
Gainers:
- Amazon (AMZN) 266.43, +10.17 (+3.97%) — mega-cap strength led consumer discretionary
- Workday (WDAY) 204.72, +11.15 (+5.76%) — Q2 beat on earnings and revenue, improving profitability, AI traction, new buyback authorization
- Microsoft (MSFT) 513.53, +8.47 (+1.68%)
- Apple (AAPL) 319.70, +5.12 (+1.63%)
- Alphabet (GOOG) 342.88, +5.17 (+1.53%)
- Pre-market standouts: Elastic (ESTC) +25%, Gap (GAP) +18%, Affirm (AFRM) +11%
Decliners:
- PayPal (PYPL) 53.66, -7.81 (-12.71%) — worst S&P 500 performer after Bloomberg reported the Advent/Stripe consortium abandoned its $50 bln+ leveraged buyout of the company
- Marvell (MRVL) 216.62, -24.83 (-10.28%) — sold off despite raised long-term guidance (see Spotlight)
- NVIDIA (NVDA) 217.48, -10.50 (-4.61%) — gave back a portion of Thursday’s post-earnings surge amid broad semiconductor weakness
- Ulta Beauty (ULTA) — traded lower despite a beat-and-raise Q2, as investors focused on a measured back-half outlook
- Pre-market laggards: Rubrik (RBRK) -5%, Autodesk (ADSK) -4%
Stock Spotlight
Marvell Technology (MRVL 216.62, -24.83, -10.28%) delivered a mixed reaction to its fiscal Q2 report despite what was, on balance, a strong quarter. Revenue grew 36.5% yr/yr to a record $2.74 billion, and Q3 guidance came in above consensus at the midpoint, but EPS upside was modest and gross margin is expected to contract slightly next quarter (57.5%-58.5% vs. 58.9% in Q2). Data Center revenue rose 46% yr/yr and 18% sequentially to $2.17 billion, with Q3 guidance calling for 75% yr/yr growth, driven by continued strength in interconnect, switching, and custom AI silicon.
The more important story, per Briefing.com’s analysis, was Marvell’s raised long-term targets: FY27 revenue guidance was lifted to $12 billion (+45%) from $11.5 billion, and FY28 guidance was raised to $18 billion (+50%) from $16.5 billion (+45%). The stock’s decline reflects profit-taking after a 40%+ rally since late July and elevated expectations following NVIDIA’s strong print earlier in the week, rather than any fundamental deterioration in Marvell’s AI infrastructure narrative. The breadth of the acceleration — spanning interconnect, switching, and the ramping Custom silicon business — reinforces the durability of the long-term AI growth story even as near-term sentiment cooled.
Bond Market & Treasuries
U.S. Treasuries sold off sharply Friday, led by the front end of the curve, following Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing continued focus on price stability amid above-target inflation.
Yield Check (Friday change / Weekly change):
- 2-yr: 4.35% (+12 bps / +12 bps this week) — hit levels just 2 bps below its July peak
- 3-yr: 4.40% (+10 bps / +9 bps this week) — fresh high for the year
- 5-yr: 4.48% (+9 bps / +6 bps this week) — highest since early 2025
- 10-yr: 4.72% (+5 bps / -2 bps this week)
- 30-yr: 5.21% (+2 bps / -7 bps this week)
The 2s10s spread tightened by 14 bps to 37 bps this week, reversing a widening trend from 27 bps to 52 bps over the prior two months. The September rate-hike probability jumped to roughly 57.5%-60% from 35.4%-40% the prior day following Warsh’s comments, which also flagged rising commodity prices as a watch item for inflation risk.
Commodities
- WTI Crude: $83.38/bbl, -0.2% on the day; -4.3% for the week (-$3.69/bbl, -4.2%) amid volatility tied to Iran/Strait of Hormuz developments
- Gold: $4,528.40/ozt, -2.9%
- Copper: $6.66/lb, -0.5%
- Silver: Not reported in available data
Overseas Markets
Specific Asian and European equity index levels were not included in today’s data set. Currency and macro data points available:
- U.S. Dollar Index: 99.69, +0.5% on the day, +0.9% for the week; reclaimed its 200-day moving average (99.16)
- USD/JPY: 160.10, +0.5%
- EUR/USD: 1.1582, -0.6%
- GBP/USD: 1.3532, -0.4%
- USD/CNH: 6.7325, +0.2%
Key overseas data: Japan’s August Tokyo CPI rose 1.9% yr/yr (prior 1.8%) with Tokyo Core CPI up 1.8% (as expected); Japan’s July Unemployment Rate fell to 2.4% from 2.5%. Eurozone’s August Business and Consumer Survey rose to 98.4 from 97.1 (better than expected). France’s Q2 GDP was flat qtr/qtr (vs. +0.2% expected) while August CPI rose 0.7% m/m and 2.4% yr/yr. Spain’s August CPI rose 0.7% m/m and 4.3% yr/yr, above expectations. Swiss August KOF Leading Indicators jumped to 106.7 from 104.2, well above the 103.0 consensus. The U.S. Treasury also announced steps to revoke Banque Misr UAE’s access to U.S. financial institutions over support for the Iranian regime.
Economic Data
- August Chicago PMI: 47.1 (Briefing.com consensus 57.0; prior 57.6) — a significant miss signaling sharp contraction in regional manufacturing activity
- August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final): 51.7 (Briefing.com consensus 51.0; prior/preliminary 51.0; final July reading 55.2) — key takeaway: persistent inflation concerns continue to undercut consumer sentiment
Looking Ahead
Week Ahead:
- Monday: Nothing of note scheduled
- Tuesday: Final August S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (prior 53.2) at 9:45 ET; July Job Openings (Briefing.com consensus 7.390 mln; prior 7.359 mln); July Construction Spending (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior -0.1%); August ISM Manufacturing Index (consensus not fully specified in available data)
Markets will continue to digest the hawkish shift in Fed policy expectations following Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, with September rate-hike odds now elevated to 57.5%-60%. Traders should watch for follow-through in Treasury yields, particularly at the front end, along with continued volatility in small- and mid-cap names as the market weighs the durability of mega-cap and software leadership against broader softness beneath the surface.