Market Summary
U.S. equity futures point to a lower open on Friday morning, with S&P futures trading 13.00 points below fair value and Nasdaq futures down 108.00 points, as the market awaits a highly anticipated 10:00 a.m. ET keynote address from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. This will be Warsh’s first major address outside of FOMC press conferences, and it comes as the CME FedWatch tool assigns a 36% probability to a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September FOMC meeting — a dramatic shift from earlier-year expectations for two rate cuts by year-end.
Stocks enter the session on a strong note, having notched gains across all three major averages on Thursday: the DJIA rose 105.56 points (+0.2%) to 53,569.44, the S&P 500 added 55.29 points (+0.7%) to 7,730.99, and the Nasdaq Composite surged 411.16 points (+1.6%) to 26,562.40. The rally was almost entirely technology-driven, fueled by blowout earnings from NVIDIA (NVDA), Salesforce (CRM), and CrowdStrike (CRWD). Notably, the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index finished Thursday down 0.3%, underscoring narrow, mega-cap-concentrated leadership beneath the surface strength.
This morning’s premarket tone is more cautious, with disappointing earnings reactions from Autodesk (ADSK -3.9%) and Marvell (MRVL -8.4%) weighing on tech sentiment ahead of the Warsh speech. Treasury yields are ticking modestly higher (10-yr +2 bps to 4.69%), and overseas markets are mixed-to-higher, with European bourses on track for a positive close to the week while Asian markets were mixed, led lower by South Korea’s Kospi (-1.8%).
Market Snapshot
Thursday Close (27-Aug-26):
- DJIA: 53,569.44 (+105.56, +0.2%)
- S&P 500: 7,730.99 (+55.29, +0.7%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 26,562.40 (+411.16, +1.6%)
Friday Premarket Futures (vs. fair value, as of 08:02 ET):
- S&P futures: -13.00
- Nasdaq futures: -108.00
Year-to-Date Performance:
- Russell 2000: +21.5% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +15.7% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite: +14.2% YTD
- S&P 500: +12.9% YTD
- DJIA: +11.5% YTD
WaveFinder Market Breadth (28-Aug-26):
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bullish
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Bearish
- Primary Bulls: 1,170 | Bears: 744
- Above 20-day SMA: 15%
- Above 40-day SMA: 47.36%
The divergence between “Very Bullish” primary sentiment and “Bearish” 40-day SMA sentiment, alongside just 15% of stocks above their 20-day moving average, reinforces the narrative of narrow, mega-cap-led gains masking weaker underlying breadth.
Sector Performance
Thursday’s S&P 500 Sector Performance (ranked):
1. Information Technology: +3.4% (only sector to finish higher)
2. Energy: -0.4% (narrowest loss; recovered late on oil rally)
3. Consumer Discretionary: -1.0% (BBY, BURL earnings weighed)
4. Health Care: -1.1% (MRNA pressure continued)
5. Consumer Staples: -1.5% (worst performer; HRL earnings drag)
(Note: full ranking for remaining six sectors — Financials, Industrials, Communication Services, Materials, Utilities, Real Estate — not specified in source data beyond “ten sectors finished lower.”)
WaveFinder Sector ATR / Volatility Snapshot (28-Aug-26):
- Communication Services: 2.63% (rising, P89) — highest volatility percentile
- Health Care: 3.08% (rising, P58)
- Energy: 1.98% (falling, P47)
- Materials: 1.22% (flat, P37)
- Financials: 1.15% (rising, P53)
- Real Estate: -1.04% (flat, P0)
- Industrials: -0.71% (falling, P11)
- Technology: -0.68% (flat, P68)
- Consumer Discretionary: -0.37% (flat, P5)
- Consumer Staples: 0.27% (flat, P5)
- Utilities: -2.33% (falling, P5)
Key Earnings & Movers
Premarket Movers (28-Aug-26):
- Marvell (MRVL): 221.30, -20.15 (-8.4%) — beat EPS by $0.01, revenue in-line, guided Q3 EPS/revenue in-line
- Autodesk (ADSK): 259.99, -10.59 (-3.9%) — beat EPS by $0.18, beat revenue, guided Q3 EPS below consensus (revenue above), FY27 EPS in-line
- Ulta Beauty (ULTA): 532.00, -8.10 (-1.5%) — beat EPS by $0.35, beat revenue, raised FY27 EPS/revenue/comp guidance
- NVIDIA (NVDA): 226.96, -1.02 (-0.5%) — modest premarket pullback after Thursday’s surge
Thursday’s Notable Movers:
- Salesforce (CRM): 252.10, +46.48 (+22.6%) — S&P 500/DJIA leader on strong forward demand indicators
- CrowdStrike (CRWD): 227.96, +38.78 (+20.5%) — post-earnings surge
- NVIDIA (NVDA): 227.91, +18.25 (+8.7%) — Q3 revenue grew >100%, record $1 bln+ daily revenue growth; raised AI infrastructure commitments to $279 bln from $119 bln; expanded AWS partnership
- Hormel Foods (HRL): 21.28, -2.44 (-10.3%) — worst S&P 500 performer on earnings
- Moderna (MRNA): 142.77, -6.89 (-4.6%) — pressured after prior week’s surge
- Best Buy (BBY): 83.58, -3.86 (-4.4%) — beat-and-raise failed to ease 2H growth concerns
- Burlington Stores (BURL): 289.89, -24.10 (-7.7%) — mixed Q2, increased consumer caution commentary
After-Hours Spotlight:
- Affirm (AFRM): +8.9% — beat on revenue, GMV grew 36%, guided FY27 GMV over $64 bln; COO promoted to President
- Elastic (ESTC): +16.8% — beat by $0.12, beat revenue, authorized $0.5 bln buyback
- Gap (GAP): gapped higher on earnings beat
Stock Spotlight
Burlington Stores (BURL) delivered a mixed Q2 report that sent shares down 7.7% despite underlying profitability strength. Revenue increased 11% yr/yr to $3.00 billion (roughly in-line), while adjusted EPS — excluding tariff refund benefits and bankruptcy-lease expenses — rose 38% to $2.37, well above expectations. Comparable sales grew 2% at the midpoint of guidance, representing a solid 7% two-year stack, driven by higher basket size with flat transactions. Gross margin (ex-tariff refunds) expanded 60 bps to 44.3%, and adjusted EBIT margin expanded 100 bps to 7.0% — far exceeding prior guidance for just 30-60 bps of expansion.
Despite these strong underlying metrics, shares fell as management struck a notably more cautious tone on the consumer, with CEO O’Sullivan acknowledging he had “hoped for more” than the 2% Q2 comp. The company cited underwhelming Q2 comps across retail broadly, including at value-oriented peers, and noted that moderate- and lower-income households remain financially stretched. The below-consensus Q3 EPS outlook largely reflects planned reinvestment of tariff refunds rather than flowing them to earnings — a strategic choice to sharpen value amid consumer pressure. This stands in contrast to stronger recent off-price results from ROST and TJX, helping explain investor disappointment despite BURL’s otherwise solid execution.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Overnight/Premarket Levels (28-Aug-26, 07:58 ET):
- 10-yr yield: 4.692% (-3/32 price)
- 2-yr: unchanged at 4.23%
- 3-yr: unchanged at 4.30%
- 5-yr: +1 bp to 4.41%
- 10-yr: +2 bps to 4.69%
- 30-yr: +2 bps to 5.21%
Treasuries are on track for a slightly lower start, with longer tenors showing relative weakness following two consecutive days of losses. The overnight retreat was confined to a narrow range, though other sovereign debt (JGBs, European bonds) showed more pronounced movement — JGBs pressured by weak 2-yr auction demand, European debt on the defensive after France’s downward-revised Q2 GDP and hot Spanish inflation data.
Thursday’s Close (27-Aug-26):
- 10-yr yield: 4.672% (+1 bp on the day)
- 2-yr yield: 4.23% (+1 bp)
Thursday’s session saw Treasuries slip to fresh lows late in the day, coinciding with a rally in oil prices following reports of a potential Venezuela oil-stake deal. The U.S. Treasury completed its weekly auction slate with a “good” $44 billion 7-year note offering. All focus now shifts to Fed Chair Warsh’s 10:00 a.m. ET Jackson Hole address as the next major catalyst for rates.
Commodities
Premarket Levels (28-Aug-26):
- WTI Crude: -0.6% to $83.07/bbl
- Gold: -0.4% to $4,646.00/ozt
- Copper: +0.7% to $5.638/lb
Thursday’s Close (27-Aug-26):
- Crude Oil: $83.61/bbl, +$1.36 (+1.7%) — rallied late on report that White House has no intention of returning to June Iran MOU terms
- Natural Gas: $2.91, +$0.04
- Gold: $4,664.30/ozt, +$17.20
- Silver: $69.46/ozt, +$1.46
- Copper: $6.69/lb, +$0.09
Overseas Markets
Asia-Pacific (Friday):
- Nikkei: 66,405.56, +273.60 (+0.4%)
- Hang Seng: 25,584.79, +19.00 (+0.1%)
- Shanghai Composite: -0.1%
- Kospi: -1.8% (relative underperformer)
- Sensex: +0.4%
- ASX All Ordinaries: +0.6%
Key drivers: Japan’s PM Takaichi confirmed cabinet changes for late September; weak 2-yr JGB auction amid rising BoJ rate-hike expectations; S&P affirmed China’s A+ sovereign rating (Stable outlook); Australian retailer Harvey Norman flagged variable retail conditions.
Europe (Friday, tracking higher):
- STOXX Europe 600: +0.4%
- DAX: +0.6%
- FTSE 100: +0.2%
- CAC 40: +1.0%
- FTSE MIB: +0.8%
- IBEX 35: +0.5%
Key drivers: France’s Q2 GDP revised down to 0.0% qtr/qtr (from prior -0.2%) with small nonfarm payroll contraction; French Finance Minister Lescure cited summer heatwave impact extending into Q3; Spain posted hotter-than-expected August inflation (0.7% m/m, 4.3% yr/yr).
Economic Data
Overnight/International (28-Aug-26):
- Japan Tokyo CPI: 1.9% yr/yr (last 1.8%); Core CPI: 1.8% (as expected)
- Japan July Unemployment Rate: 2.4% (expected 2.5%; last 2.5%)
- India July Industrial Production: 6.7% yr/yr (expected 6.0%; last 8.8%)
- Eurozone August Business/Consumer Survey: 98.4 (expected 97.5; last 97.1)
- Germany August Unemployment Rate: 6.4% (as expected)
- France August CPI: 0.7% m/m (as expected); 2.4% yr/yr (last 2.1%)
- Spain August CPI: 0.7% m/m (expected 0.6%); 4.3% yr/yr (expected 4.2%)
- Swiss August KOF Leading Indicators: 106.7 (expected 103.0; last 104.2)
U.S. Data Due Today (28-Aug-26):
- 9:45 ET: August Chicago PMI (Briefing.com consensus 57.0; prior 57.6)
- 10:00 ET: Final August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Briefing.com consensus 51.0; prior 51.0)
Thursday’s U.S. Data (27-Aug-26):
- Weekly Initial Claims: 203K (consensus 210K; prior revised to 207K) — claims remain low, little change in layoff activity
- Weekly Continuing Claims: 1.778 mln (prior revised to 1.796 mln) — near yearly lows
- July Advance Goods Trade Deficit: -$118.8 bln (prior revised to -$101.4 bln)
- July Advance Retail Inventories: +0.7%
- July Advance Wholesale Inventories: +1.3%
Looking Ahead
- 10:00 a.m. ET Today: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh keynote address at Jackson Hole Economic Symposium — first major address outside FOMC press conferences; key catalyst for rate-hike probability (currently 36% for September per CME FedWatch)
- 9:45 a.m. ET: August Chicago PMI (consensus 57.0)
- 10:00 a.m. ET: Final August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (consensus 51.0)
- Continued focus on rotation dynamics between concentrated mega-cap tech leadership and broader market breadth, given the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index’s divergence from headline index gains
- Watch for follow-through in software/semiconductor names post-NVDA, CRM, and CRWD earnings strength
- Retail sector earnings scrutiny continues following mixed reactions to BBY, BURL, ULTA, and ADSK results