Market Summary — Pre market — 2026-08-26

Market Summary

Wall Street enters Wednesday’s pre-market session on cautious footing, with S&P 500 futures trading 15.00 points below fair value and Nasdaq futures down 58.00 points, pointing to a subdued open ahead of what Briefing.com calls “easily the most catalyst-driven session of the week.” Today’s slate includes the July Personal Income and Spending report — featuring the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge — as well as the second estimate of Q2 GDP, all landing just hours before NVIDIA (NVDA) reports earnings after today’s close. The CME FedWatch tool currently prices a 36% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September FOMC meeting.

Tuesday’s session ended with modest broad-market gains as a rebound in semiconductors offset mixed action elsewhere. The Dow rose 160.24 points (+0.30%) to 53,577.40, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 171.11 points (+0.66%) to 26,172.34, and the S&P 500 added 24.42 points (+0.32%) to close at 7,677.28. Information technology (+1.0%) led sector performance as the PHLX Semiconductor Index gained 1.4% and NVDA snapped a seven-session losing streak, while energy (-1.7%) lagged badly as WTI crude tumbled 3.2% to $82.29/bbl. Retail-linked names were a standout weak spot after Dick’s Sporting Goods’ disastrous quarter dragged down NIKE, Deckers, and lululemon.

Overnight, Intuit’s disappointing guidance (shares down 9.4% pre-market) and a fresh leg lower in crude oil — aided by Secretary of State Rubio signaling no near-term U.S. strikes on Iran — are the dominant pre-market narratives, alongside continued speculation about an unexplained CIA Director visit to Moscow. Treasuries are little changed heading into the data-heavy morning, with the 10-year yield at 4.642% ahead of a $70 billion 5-year note auction at 13:00 ET.

Market Snapshot

Previous Close (25-Aug-26):

• DJIA: 53,577.40 (+160.24, +0.30%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 26,172.34 (+171.11, +0.66%)
• S&P 500: 7,677.28 (+24.42, +0.32%)

Pre-Market Futures (26-Aug-26, 08:04 ET):

• S&P futures vs. fair value: -15.00
• Nasdaq futures vs. fair value: -58.00

Market Breadth (WaveFinder):

• Primary Sentiment: Very Bullish (Bulls 1,175 / Bears 748)
• 4% Sentiment: Neutral | 40 SMA Sentiment: Neutral
• Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 23%
• Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 50.68%

YTD Index Performance:

• Russell 2000: +21.3%
• S&P Mid Cap 400: +15.0%
• Nasdaq Composite: +12.5%
• S&P 500: +12.2%
• DJIA: +11.5%

Sector Performance

Ranked by Tuesday’s (25-Aug) session performance, with WaveFinder volatility (ATR) context noted where available:

1. Information Technology: +1.0% — Semiconductor rebound (PHLX Semis +1.4%) led all sectors; WaveFinder ATR -0.98% (falling, P37)
2. Communication Services: +0.5% — Meta strength; WaveFinder ATR 3.53% (rising, P100) — highest volatility reading
3. Health Care: +0.3% — Moderna volatility a key driver; WaveFinder ATR 3.55% (rising, P95)
4. Consumer Discretionary: -0.3% — Retail/athletic apparel weakness; WaveFinder ATR 0.30% (flat, P11)
5. Consumer Staples: -0.9% — Broad retail-linked drag; WaveFinder ATR 0.79% (rising, P58)
6. Energy: -1.7% — Crude oil’s 3.2% decline weighed heavily; WaveFinder ATR 2.14% (flat, P58)
7. Financials — Performance not specified in session recap; WaveFinder ATR 1.43% (flat, P74)
8. Industrials — Performance not specified; WaveFinder ATR -1.17% (falling, P0)
9. Materials — Performance not specified; WaveFinder ATR 1.20% (flat, P37)
10. Real Estate — Performance not specified; WaveFinder ATR 0.16% (rising, P79)
11. Utilities — Performance not specified; WaveFinder ATR -2.15% (falling, P5)

Key Earnings & Movers

• Intuit (INTU): 324.35, -33.46 (-9.4%) pre-market — Beat EPS by $0.45 and beat revenue, but guided OctQ and FY27 EPS/revenue below consensus.
• Meta Platforms (META): 578.20, +8.15 (+1.4%) pre-market — Reportedly discussing a mid-trial settlement with state Attorneys General in a teen social media addiction case.
• NVIDIA (NVDA): ~212.90, -0.15 (-0.0%) pre-market, largely flat ahead of today’s after-close earnings report; closed Tuesday at 212.95 (+4.47, +2.14%), breaking a seven-session losing streak.
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI): 38.45, +3.28 (+9.33%) — Cisco expanded its NVIDIA AI partnership to include Supermicro rack-scale systems.
• Cisco (CSCO): 111.11, +0.88 (+0.80%).
• Moderna (MRNA): 158.83, +19.94 (+14.36%) — Continued rebound after last week’s melanoma vaccine data.
• Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS): 124.31, -55.02 (-30.68%) — Disappointing results tied to Foot Locker weakness.
• NIKE (NKE): 39.48, -1.28 (-3.13%) — Worst-performing DJIA component.
• Deckers Outdoor (DECK): 88.74, -3.34 (-3.63%).
• lululemon (LULU): 118.33, -4.45 (-3.62%).
• SpaceX (SPCX): 137.97, +2.97 (+2.20%) — Confirmed 2027 start for Starbase Louisiana launch facility construction.
• HEICO (HEI): Beat EPS by $0.16, beat revenue; shares +2.5%.
• Box (BOX): EPS in line, beat revenue; provided Q3/FY27 guidance; shares -0.1%.
• American Tower (AMT): Director purchased 2,829 shares at $177 (~$501K); shares +0.4%.
• Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS): Higher on news of Claros acquisition (up to $232.8 mln) to expand AI data center power delivery portfolio.

Stock Spotlight

Anavex Life Sciences (AVXL) is one of the session’s most notable movers, jumping on regulatory progress across its three core blarcamesine indications despite recent management turnover. The key catalyst was the submission of completed Alzheimer’s clinical-trial data to a newly opened IND, alongside a formal FDA meeting request to discuss adding pediatric patients to its Rett syndrome Phase 3 protocol and a planned Fragile X IND submission in September. The company reported $118.3 million in cash, expected to fund operations into mid-to-late FY28, and posted Q3 net income of $7.8 million ($0.08/share) — though that figure was driven largely by ~$17.4 million in stock-compensation reversals tied to the former CEO’s termination rather than underlying operational improvement.

Briefing.com’s analysis cautions that submitting data and requesting FDA meetings is not equivalent to regulatory endorsement — the FDA has not yet agreed to the Alzheimer’s Phase 3 design, accepted pediatric patients into the Rett protocol, or cleared the Fragile X program. AVXL also carries outstanding 10-Q filings for its second and third fiscal quarters and is working with Nasdaq to regain compliance, with management declining to hold another investor call until Q4/full-year results. The Alzheimer’s pathway carries the greatest valuation significance, and near-term checkpoints include formal FDA feedback, completion of pharmacology studies, the Fragile X IND filing, and timely resolution of the delinquent 10-Qs.

Bond Market & Treasuries

Current Levels (26-Aug-26, 08:02 ET):

• 10-Yr Yield: 4.642% (-2/32 in price)
• 2-Yr: UNCH at 4.20%
• 3-Yr: UNCH at 4.26%
• 5-Yr: UNCH at 4.35%
• 10-Yr: UNCH at 4.64%
• 30-Yr: +1 bp to 5.18%

Treasuries are on track for a mostly flat start, with slight weakness in the long end that could shift quickly following this morning’s PCE and GDP data. Overnight news flow was light, dominated by speculation over CIA Director Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow aboard a U.S. military aircraft — a trip the Kremlin confirmed involved meetings with Russian intelligence officials, though no official rationale was given. A $70 billion 5-year Treasury note auction is scheduled for 13:00 ET.

Tuesday’s session saw Treasuries extend Monday’s gains, aided by falling energy prices and weaker-than-expected Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales data. The 2-year note settled 4 bps lower to 4.20%, and the 10-year settled 7 bps lower to 4.64% (as of Tuesday’s 15:13 ET summary, 4.639%). The Treasury’s $69 billion 2-year note auction was described as “good.”

Commodities

Pre-Market (26-Aug-26):

• WTI Crude: -2.4% to $80.38/bbl (approaching 50-day moving average of $79.04)
• Gold: -0.5% to $4,673.00/ozt
• Copper: -0.3% to $6.691/lb

Prior Session Close (25-Aug-26):

• Crude Oil: -$2.69 to $82.29/bbl (-3.2%)
• Natural Gas: unch at $2.83
• Gold: -$0.80 to $4,694.20
• Silver: +$0.11 to $68.68
• Copper: +$0.11 to $6.71

Crude’s continued slide comes as Secretary of State Rubio told allies the U.S. is not expected to initiate new strikes against Iran “for the time being,” per Axios.

Overseas Markets

Asia-Pacific (mixed-to-higher):

• Nikkei 225: 66,262.16 (+405.70, +0.60%)
• Hang Seng: 25,652.97 (+141.90, +0.60%)
• Shanghai Composite: +0.6%
• Kospi: +1.0%
• Sensex: -0.2%
• ASX All Ordinaries: -0.4%

Key driver: Japan’s Corporate Services Price Index rose 3.6% yr/yr (expected 3.2%), the fastest pace since early 2015. BoJ Governor Ueda will skip the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, sending known hawk policymaker Tamura in his place. Australia’s July CPI decelerated to 3.5% yr/yr (from 3.8%), though less than the 3.3% expected.

Europe (near flatline):

• STOXX Europe 600: +0.1%
• DAX: +0.1%
• FTSE 100: -0.2%
• CAC 40: +0.4% (outperformer, led by ArcelorMittal and industrials)
• FTSE MIB: +0.2%
• IBEX 35: +0.3%

Key driver: ECB policymaker Schnabel reiterated that rates must rise, with the size of the move data-dependent; expectations for a September ECB hike are solidifying, though additional hikes are not currently expected. UK’s August CBI Distributive Trades Survey fell sharply to -48 (expected -35, prior -26).

Economic Data

Overnight/International:

• Japan July Corporate Services Price Index: 3.6% yr/yr (expected 3.2%; prior 3.4%)
• Australia July MI Leading Index: 0.0% m/m (prior 0.1%)
• Australia July CPI: 3.5% yr/yr (expected 3.3%; prior 3.8%)
• Australia Q2 Construction Work Done: -2.1% qtr/qtr (expected 0.5%; prior 4.3%)
• Singapore July Industrial Production: 2.3% m/m (expected 3.0%; prior -7.0%); 6.8% yr/yr (expected 6.7%; prior 7.5%)
• UK August CBI Distributive Trades Survey: -48 (expected -35; prior -26)
• Swiss August ZEW Expectations: 12.1 (prior 10.0)

U.S. (26-Aug-26 releases pending):

• 7:00 ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index: actual -1.0% (prior -0.4%)
• 8:30 ET: Q2 GDP – second estimate (consensus 1.5%; prior 1.5%)
• 8:30 ET: Q2 GDP Deflator – second estimate (consensus 6.3%; prior 6.3%)
• 8:30 ET: July Personal Income (consensus 0.2%; prior 0.2%)
• 8:30 ET: July Personal Spending (consensus 0.2%; prior 0.3%)
• 8:30 ET: July PCE Prices (consensus 0.1%; prior -0.1%)
• 8:30 ET: July Core PCE Prices (consensus 0.2%; prior 0.1%)
• 8:30 ET: July Durable Orders (consensus 0.5%; prior 0.3%)
• 8:30 ET: July Durable Orders ex-transport (consensus 0.5%; prior 0.6%)
• 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior +4.41 mln)

Prior Session (25-Aug-26) — already reported:

• June FHFA Housing Price Index: 0.0% (prior 0.3%)
• July S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: 2.1% (consensus 1.8%; prior 1.6%)
• August Consumer Confidence: 89.4 (consensus 90.6; prior revised to 90.2 from 90.8) — weakness driven by a deteriorating Expectations Index, partly offset by a rebound in the Present Situation Index
• July New Home Sales: 607K (consensus 620K; prior revised to 678K from 628K) — regional variation but overall slowing pace, raising months’ supply

Looking Ahead

• Today (26-Aug-26): NVIDIA (NVDA) reports earnings after the close — the marquee event of the week. Full economic data slate including July Personal Income/Spending, Core PCE Prices, second estimate of Q2 GDP, and July Durable Orders, all at 8:30 ET.
• 13:00 ET Today: $70 billion 5-year Treasury note auction.
• 10:30 ET Today: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior build of +4.41 mln barrels).
• Ongoing Watch: CME FedWatch currently shows a 36% probability of a 25-bp rate hike at the September FOMC meeting — subject to revision based on today’s PCE data. BoJ’s Jackson Hole representation (via hawk policymaker Tamura, in Governor Ueda’s absence) and ECB rate-path commentary (Schnabel) remain key global central bank threads. Additional geopolitical developments regarding Iran sanctions (“Operation Economic Outcast”) and the unexplained CIA Director visit to Moscow warrant continued monitoring.