Situation Awareness: Cautious. The tape enters the most catalyst-dense session of the week defensive-footed — S&P futures sit 20 points below fair value and Nasdaq futures 108 below after a hot July PCE print landed at 8:38 ET, with core inflation running above the Fed’s comfort zone and the Q2 GDP deflator revised UP to 6.4%. Index levels (SPY/QQQ/IWM) are data-unavailable this morning, so we anchor on futures and breadth. Trade mode: selective and patient — let the open clear the PCE reaction and position ahead of NVIDIA’s after-the-close report. The market is caught between a semiconductor-led relief bounce and a rate picture that now prices a 36% chance of a 25 bp HIKE at the September FOMC. Regime context — 55.79% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 264 bulls vs. 83 bears. The 5-day trend turned sharply constructive, with the 20-day SMA breadth jumping from 62% to 74% day-over-day, signaling improving participation beneath a nervous headline tape.
SIP: GENB DDC TNMG RIME
- What’s working: Continuation/2LYNCH is rich with 17 signals — solid breadth. Reversal scan thinner at 5. Delayed 9M is empty, a note of caution on fresh episodic leadership.
- Leading sectors (live trending closed): from signal clustering, MEDICAL (KYMR, NUVB), COMPUTER (SMCI), and MINING (UUUU) show the strongest momentum footprints; themes lean AI-infrastructure and biotech catalyst.
- Key event: July core-PCE +0.2% and headline PCE +0.2% both ran hot vs. the +0.1% headline consensus — the Fed’s preferred gauge is not cooperating.
- Market read: Tuesday’s +0.3% S&P / +0.7% Nasdaq close was chip-led and narrow; broad participation was mixed. Today’s lower futures suggest that rally lacks conviction into the data.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals fired — stand down on that book today.
- SIPS: SMCI, KYMR, SE — top continuation swing candidates.