Market Summary
U.S. equity futures are pointing to a lower open on Monday, August 24, with S&P 500 futures trading 20.00 points below fair value and Nasdaq futures down 150.00 points as of 8:03 a.m. ET, extending early morning weakness that saw futures down 16.00 and 138.00 points, respectively, at 6:07 a.m. ET. The pullback follows Friday’s broad rebound, when the DJIA led with a 517.80-point (+1.0%) surge to 53,277.01, the S&P 500 added 33.21 points (+0.4%) to close at 7,674.37, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 113.29 points (+0.4%) to 26,201.49. Despite Friday’s bounce, all major averages finished last week firmly in the red — the S&P 500 fell 1.4%, the Nasdaq dropped 2.1%, the DJIA lost 0.9%, the Russell 2000 declined 1.7%, and the S&P Mid Cap 400 slid 2.5% — as a sharp semiconductor selloff, rising oil prices, and elevated Treasury yields weighed on sentiment.
This morning’s tone remains cautious ahead of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s 1:00 p.m. ET press conference, at which he is expected to detail economic sanctions against Iran. Crude oil is providing some relief, falling 2.3% to $85.08/bbl after last week’s roughly 5.4% surge, while Treasury yields are modestly lower across the curve. Semiconductor weakness continues to be a persistent drag on the technology-heavy indices ahead of NVIDIA’s (NVDA 214.67, -0.04, -0.0%) earnings report Wednesday after the close, a print widely viewed as a key catalyst for the broader AI trade.
Sector rotation was a defining feature of Friday’s session, with precious metals-driven strength in materials (+2.2%) and continued momentum in health care (+1.3%) and financials (+1.0%) offsetting flat performance in information technology, where ongoing semiconductor softness capped gains. WaveFinder breadth data shows a bifurcated market entering today’s session: Primary Sentiment reads “Very Bullish” with 1,171 bulls versus 745 bears, yet the 40-day SMA sentiment reading is “Bearish,” with only 50.61% of names above their 40-day moving average and just 42% above their 20-day moving average — underscoring a market still working through last week’s technical damage even as broader sentiment indicators firm up.
Market Snapshot
Friday Close (21-Aug-26):
- DJIA: 53,277.01 (+517.80, +1.0%)
- S&P 500: 7,674.37 (+33.21, +0.4%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 26,201.49 (+113.29, +0.4%)
- Russell 2000: +0.9% (Friday session)
- S&P MidCap 400: +0.4% (Friday session)
Week-to-Date Performance (through 21-Aug-26):
- DJIA: -0.9%
- S&P 500: -1.4%
- Russell 2000: -1.7%
- Nasdaq Composite: -2.1%
- S&P Mid Cap 400: -2.5%
Pre-Market Futures (24-Aug-26, 08:03 ET):
- S&P futures vs. fair value: -20.00
- Nasdaq futures vs. fair value: -150.00
WaveFinder Market Breadth (24-Aug-26):
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bullish (Bulls 1,171 / Bears 745)
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Bearish
- 4% Sentiment: Neutral (Bulls 0 / Bears 0)
- Above 20-day SMA: 42%
- Above 40-day SMA: 50.61%
- 9-Month Bulls/Bears: 0/0; Bull Follow-Through: 0%
Sector Performance
Friday Session (21-Aug-26):
1. Materials: +2.2% (precious metals rally — NEM, FCX)
2. Health Care: +1.3% (MRNA rebound)
3. Financials: +1.0% (banking, crypto strength)
4. Consumer Discretionary: +0.9% (TSLA, TGT, ROST)
5. Communication Services: +0.9% (GOOG, META)
6. Information Technology: ~flat (software gains offset by semiconductor weakness)
7. Energy: -0.2% (crude little changed)
8. Utilities: -2.3% (lone sizable decliner)
- Consumer Staples, Industrials, Real Estate: not specified in Friday data
Week-to-Date:
- Energy: +2.5%
- Materials: +2.3%
- Health Care: +1.0%
- Information Technology: -3.2%
- Industrials: -3.4%
- PHLX Semiconductor Index: -5.5% (week)
WaveFinder Sector ATR (Volatility, 24-Aug-26):
- Health Care: 3.71% (rising, P100)
- Energy: 3.57% (rising, P95)
- Communication Services: 2.54% (rising, P100)
- Materials: 2.02% (flat, P95)
- Consumer Staples: 0.84% (flat, P63)
- Financials: 0.86% (falling, P26)
- Consumer Discretionary: 0.61% (flat, P47)
- Industrials: -0.51% (falling, P0)
- Real Estate: -0.19% (flat, P37)
- Technology: -1.09% (falling, P26)
- Utilities: -2.56% (falling, P0)
Key Earnings & Movers
- Ross Stores (ROST) 239.04, +10.05 (+4.39%) — Beat-and-raise Q2 with revenue up 13.3% yr/yr to $6.26 bln and EPS of $2.66; raised FY27 EPS guidance to $8.61-$8.77.
- Robinhood Markets (HOOD) 108.13, +13.03 (+13.70%) — Rallied on crypto strength as Bitcoin extended its surge.
- Coinbase Global (COIN) 186.49, +14.14 (+8.20%) — Gained alongside broader crypto-related strength.
- Moderna (MRNA) 145.13, +11.81 (+8.86%) — Rebounded following Wednesday’s cancer-vaccine-driven rally.
- Tesla (TSLA) 362.86, +17.73 (+5.14%) — Rallied after Nevada approved robotaxi services in Clark County.
- Target (TGT) 165.42, +7.17 (+4.53%) — Extended post-earnings momentum to a new multi-year high.
- Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) 76.67, +5.45 (+7.65%) — Gained on precious/industrial metals strength.
- Newmont Corporation (NEM) 131.58, +3.94 (+3.09%) — Gained with gold’s surge.
- Marvell (MRVL) 237.04, -13.97 (-5.57%) — Profit-taking after Wednesday’s near-10% surge on its Alphabet custom-silicon agreement.
- Hims & Hers (HIMS) 32.87, -0.91 (-2.7%) — Put on notice by Visa for excessive complaints in its weight-loss subscription unit, per Bloomberg.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) 214.67, -0.04 (-0.0%) — Flat pre-market; customers reportedly notified of 15% AI price increases (Bloomberg); earnings due Wednesday after the close.
- Alibaba — Lost nearly 10% in Hong Kong after pricing a $10 bln share offering.
- Boston Beer (SAM) — Trading lower after disclosing CFO Diego Reynoso’s September 14 departure; Q2 adjusted EPS of $3.65 missed expectations with net revenue down 3.3%.
Stock Spotlight
Ross Stores (ROST) — Beat-and-Raise Momentum Continues
Ross Stores delivered another standout quarter, with the off-price retailer’s stock climbing 4.39% to $239.04 following a strong Q2 (July) report. Revenue rose 13.3% year-over-year to $6.26 billion, and EPS of $2.66 topped expectations even after excluding an approximately $0.60 tariff-refund benefit. Comparable sales increased a robust 10% — well above the company’s 6-7% plan and marking the second consecutive quarter of double-digit comp growth, driven primarily by transaction gains from new, returning, and more frequent existing shoppers. Monthly trends improved sequentially through the quarter, with July posting the strongest results despite difficult back-to-school comparisons, and management noted August trends have remained encouraging.
Gross margin expanded 625 basis points year-over-year (605 bps ex-tariff benefit contribution of 405 bps), while operating margin excluding the tariff benefit still expanded 205 basis points, supported by higher merchandise margin and lower distribution costs. Management raised its FY27 EPS outlook to $8.61-$8.77 and increased its store-opening plan to 115 locations from 110, citing recent openings performing ahead of plan. The results reinforce ROST’s positioning as a share-gaining beneficiary of value-seeking consumer behavior, even as the company faces increasingly difficult year-over-year comparisons heading into the back half of the fiscal year.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Overnight Levels (24-Aug-26, 07:58 ET):
- 2-yr: 4.23% (UNCH)
- 3-yr: 4.31% (UNCH)
- 5-yr: 4.42% (-1 bp)
- 10-yr: 4.71% (-3 bps), last quoted 4.708%
- 30-yr: 5.24% (-4 bps)
Friday Close (21-Aug-26):
- 2-yr: 4.23% (+4 bps day, +6 bps week)
- 3-yr: 4.31% (+4 bps day, +6 bps week)
- 5-yr: 4.42% (+4 bps day, +6 bps week)
- 10-yr: 4.74%/4.738% (+4 bps day, +4 bps week)
- 30-yr: 5.28% (+4 bps day, +1 bp week)
Treasuries are on track for a modestly higher start in longer tenors this morning, with futures reaching their best levels near the end of the Asian session before drifting sideways. The market has little fresh data to digest ahead of Secretary Bessent’s 1:00 p.m. ET press conference on Iran sanctions. CNBC reports Bessent could tap Treasury’s $1 trillion General Account to fund bond buybacks — a liquidity-management tool that briefly supported rate-sensitive stocks midweek last week but failed to arrest the broader climb in yields, which finished the week higher across the curve. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% to 98.98 this morning after slipping to 98.81 (-0.1%) on Friday, its lowest level since mid-May.
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil: $85.08/bbl, -2.3% (overnight), pulling back after last week’s roughly 5.4% surge; Friday finished little changed just above $87/bbl.
- Gold: $4,718.00/ozt, +0.8% (overnight); Friday futures jumped $110.50 (+2.4%) to $4,680.10, extending August’s advance to nearly $600/oz.
- Silver: $69.56/oz, +2.1% (Friday session).
- Copper: $6.599/lb, +0.2% (overnight).
Overseas Markets
Asia-Pacific (broadly lower):
- Nikkei (Japan): 65,528.09, -488.30 (-0.70%)
- Hang Seng (Hong Kong): 25,517.33, -492.10 (-1.90%)
- Kospi (South Korea): -3.1% (relative underperformer)
- Shanghai Composite (China): -0.6%
- Sensex (India): -0.2%
- ASX All Ordinaries (Australia): +0.5%
Key drivers: Alibaba fell nearly 10% in Hong Kong after pricing a $10 billion share offering. Japan’s Ministry of Finance is expected to set the assumed interest rate for FY27/28 at 3.8%. Anticipation is building ahead of Thursday’s BOJ Deputy Governor Himino speech, expected to hint at further rate hikes. Singapore’s July CPI fell 0.2% m/m (2.2% yr/yr), and New Zealand’s Q2 Retail Sales fell 0.5% qtr/qtr, missing the 0.1% expected gain.
Europe (near flat lines):
- STOXX Europe 600: +0.1%
- FTSE 100 (UK): +0.1%
- FTSE MIB (Italy): +0.1%
- IBEX 35 (Spain): +0.4% (relative strength)
- DAX (Germany): -0.1%
- CAC 40 (France): -0.1%
Key drivers: Trading remains restrained ahead of Secretary Bessent’s Iran press conference. UK Prime Minister Burnham visited Ukraine, pledging additional military support. ECB policymaker Cipollone said he sees no signs of stagflation.
Economic Data
No economic data of note is scheduled for release today (24-Aug-26). The market’s next significant data point arrives Wednesday with the July Personal Income and Spending Report, which includes the PCE Price Index — a key inflation gauge for Fed policy expectations.
Looking Ahead
- 1:00 p.m. ET Today: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent press conference detailing economic sanctions against Iran.
- Wednesday: NVIDIA (NVDA) reports earnings after the close — a pivotal event for AI/semiconductor sentiment following last week’s sector-wide selloff (PHLX Semiconductor Index -5.5% week-to-date).
- Wednesday: July Personal Income and Spending Report (PCE Price Index) — the week’s key inflation data.
- Thursday: Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino speech, expected to hint at additional rate hikes.
- September 8: Canada’s retaliatory tariffs take effect following the collapse of U.S.-Canada trade talks over the weekend and the U.S. implementation of 50% tariffs on select Canadian imports.
- Ongoing focus on U.S.-Iran geopolitical developments and their impact on oil prices and broader risk sentiment.