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Bullish Market Analysis

Market Summary — Pre market — 2026-08-23

August 23, 2026 7 min read
Tickers Mentioned
Key Takeaways
  • equities closed out a volatile week with a broad-based rebound on Friday, August 21, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 517.80 points (+0.98%) to 53,277.01, while the S&P 500 added 33.21 points (+0.43%) to 7,674.37 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 113.29 points (+0.43%) to 26,201.49
  • The DJIA's outperformance reflected broader market participation and lighter exposure to the semiconductor weakness that continued to weigh on tech
  • Small-caps also joined the rally, with the Russell 2000 up 0.9% on the session

Market Summary

U.S. equities closed out a volatile week with a broad-based rebound on Friday, August 21, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 517.80 points (+0.98%) to 53,277.01, while the S&P 500 added 33.21 points (+0.43%) to 7,674.37 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 113.29 points (+0.43%) to 26,201.49. The DJIA’s outperformance reflected broader market participation and lighter exposure to the semiconductor weakness that continued to weigh on tech. Small-caps also joined the rally, with the Russell 2000 up 0.9% on the session.

The rebound was driven by stabilizing Treasury yields and oil prices following the prior session’s surge, along with a powerful move in precious metals that lifted the materials sector to the top of the leaderboard. Financials, industrials, consumer discretionary, and communication services also posted solid gains, while utilities, real estate, and energy lagged. Semiconductors remained the conspicuous weak spot, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index slipping 0.5% to cap a rough week for chip stocks, keeping a lid on gains for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at the index level.

Despite Friday’s strength, the week finished firmly in the red: the S&P 500 declined 1.4%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.1%, the DJIA lost 0.9%, the Russell 2000 dropped 1.7%, and the S&P Mid Cap 400 slid 2.5%. The unwind in semiconductor and AI-momentum names, combined with a mid-week spike in oil prices and rising Treasury yields, drove most of the damage before Friday’s constructive bounce improved sentiment heading into a pivotal week featuring the PCE inflation report and NVIDIA’s earnings release.

Market Snapshot

| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 53,277.01 | +517.80 | +0.98% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,201.49 | +113.29 | +0.43% |
| S&P 500 | 7,674.37 | +33.21 | +0.43% |

NYSE: Advancers 1,652 | Decliners 1,068 | Volume 1.16 bln
Nasdaq: Advancers 3,147 | Decliners 1,781 | Volume 7.44 bln

Breadth (WaveFinder, 2026-08-21):

  • Primary Sentiment: Bullish (Bulls 857 / Bears 526)
  • 4% Sentiment: Bullish (Bulls 274 / Bears 77)
  • 40 SMA Sentiment: Neutral
  • Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 60.0%
  • Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 54.9%
  • 9-Month Bulls/Bears: 31 / 9 (Follow-Through: 25%)

Weekly YTD Performance: Russell 2000 +21.6% | S&P Mid Cap 400 +15.9% | Nasdaq Composite +12.6% | S&P 500 +12.1% | DJIA +10.9%

Sector Performance

Ranked by Friday session performance (Briefing.com Industry Watch, with WaveFinder ATR/volatility context):

1. Materials (+2.2%) — Strong; precious metals rally; ATR 1.88% (flat, P95)
2. Health Care (+1.3%) — Strong; ATR 3.58% (flat, P100)
3. Financials (+1.0%) — Strong; ATR 0.88% (falling, P26)
4. Consumer Discretionary (+0.9%) — Strong; ATR 0.55% (falling, P47)
5. Communication Services (+0.9%) — Strong; ATR 2.41% (rising, P100)
6. Industrials — Strong; ATR -0.48% (falling, P0)
7. Information Technology — Flat; ATR -1.05% (flat, P32); semis a drag
8. Consumer Staples — Not flagged strong/weak; ATR 0.83% (flat, P58)
9. Energy (-0.2%) — Weak; ATR 3.39% (rising, P89)
10. Real Estate — Weak; ATR -0.21% (flat, P32)
11. Utilities (-2.3%) — Weakest sector; ATR -2.41% (flat, P0)

Key Earnings & Movers

  • Robinhood Markets (HOOD) 108.13, +13.03 (+13.70%) — Surged alongside Bitcoin’s continued rally, one of the S&P 500’s strongest components.
  • Coinbase Global (COIN) 186.49, +14.14 (+8.20%) — Crypto strength lifted financials.
  • Moderna (MRNA) 145.13, +11.81 (+8.86%) — Rebounded after giving back part of Wednesday’s cancer-vaccine-driven rally.
  • Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) 76.67, +5.45 (+7.65%) — Gained on precious/base metals surge.
  • Tesla (TSLA) 362.86, +17.73 (+5.14%) — Rallied after Nevada approved robotaxi services in Clark County.
  • Target (TGT) 165.42, +7.17 (+4.53%) — Extended post-earnings momentum to a new multi-year high.
  • Ross Stores (ROST) 239.04, +10.05 (+4.39%) — Advanced on beat-and-raise Q2 report.
  • Newmont Corporation (NEM) 131.58, +3.94 (+3.09%) — Gained with gold’s surge.
  • Marvell (MRVL) 237.04, -13.97 (-5.57%) — Notable laggard; profit-taking after Wednesday’s ~10% surge on Alphabet custom-silicon deal news.
  • NVIDIA (NVDA) 214.76, -2.09 (-0.96%) — Softer ahead of Wednesday’s earnings report.
  • Boston Beer (SAM) — Lower after disclosing CFO Diego Reynoso’s September 14 departure; CAO Matt Murphy named interim CFO.

Stock Spotlight

Ross Stores (ROST) delivered the standout retail print of the week, posting a beat-and-raise Q2 (July) report that sent shares up 4.39% to 239.04. Revenue climbed 13.3% year-over-year to $6.26 billion, while EPS of $2.66 included an approximate $0.60 benefit from tariff refunds — though results still topped expectations even excluding that benefit. Comp sales rose a robust 10%, well above the company’s 6-7% plan and marking a second consecutive quarter of double-digit comp growth, driven primarily by transaction growth from new, returning, and more-frequent existing shoppers.

Gross margin expanded 625 basis points year-over-year (605 bps operating margin expansion), with roughly 405 bps attributable to the tariff-refund benefit; excluding that boost, operating margin still expanded a healthy 205 bps on improved merchandise margin and lower distribution costs. Management raised its FY27 EPS guidance to $8.61-$8.77 and increased its store-opening plan to 115 locations from 110, citing encouraging trends that carried into August despite increasingly difficult year-over-year comparisons. The report reinforces a broader off-price retail momentum story and contributed meaningfully to Friday’s consumer discretionary sector strength (+0.9%).

Bond Market & Treasuries

U.S. Treasuries finished the week lower across the curve, giving back a brief midweek boost that followed news the Treasury would increase its buyback allowance for longer-dated securities. Friday’s session was unidirectional, with yields grinding higher through the afternoon and holding near session lows into the close.

Yield Levels (as of Friday close):

  • 2-Year: 4.23% (+4 bps day / +6 bps week)
  • 3-Year: 4.31% (+4 bps day / +6 bps week)
  • 5-Year: 4.42% (+4 bps day / +6 bps week)
  • 10-Year: 4.74% (+4 bps day / +4 bps week) — finished just below its 2026 high (4.747%) set in late July
  • 30-Year: 5.28% (+4 bps day / +1 bp week)

Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated that his department has multiple tools to address liquidity issues, but the market has remained in “show me” mode. The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% to 98.81, its lowest level since mid-May, and lost 0.8% on the week.

Commodities

  • WTI Crude Oil: $87.07/bbl, -1.2% on the day; still up nearly $5/bbl (~+5.4%) on the week amid U.S.-Iran ceasefire expiration concerns
  • Gold: $4,680.10/ozt, +2.4% (+$110.50); extended August advance to nearly $600/ounce
  • Silver: $69.56/ozt, +2.1%
  • Copper: $6.59/lb, +1.9%

Overseas Markets

Overnight activity was subdued across Asia and Europe, with markets digesting a heavy slate of flash August PMI data:

  • Japan: Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.1 (as expected; prior 54.5), marking an eighth consecutive month of expansion; flash Services PMI 52.3 (prior 51.2)
  • Eurozone: Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.8 (expected 51.8; prior 51.9), expanding at its fastest pace in over four years; flash Services PMI 51.7
  • Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI 54.1 (expected 52.1; prior 52.2); flash Services PMI 48.5 (expected 50.1; prior 49.8)
  • France: Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.5 (expected 50.1; prior 49.8); flash Services PMI 48.4; August Business Survey rose to 103 from 101
  • U.K.: Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.5; flash Services PMI 52.8; July Retail Sales -0.5% m/m (expected -0.4%), +1.6% yr/yr (expected +2.2%)
  • South Korea: Exports through first 20 days of August up 56% yr/yr, with chip exports nearly tripling; finance ministry monitoring rising global bond yields
  • India: Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.9 (expected 54.0; prior 53.5); flash Services PMI 54.5
  • China: July FDI down 6.2% YTD; planning further economic discussions with Canada; expanding joint military exercises with Indonesia

Currencies: EUR/USD unchanged at 1.1682; GBP/USD +0.2% to 1.3652; USD/JPY unchanged at 159.02; USD/CNH unchanged at 6.7206

Economic Data

  • Flash August S&P Global U.S. Services PMI: 56.8 (prior 54.6) — strong acceleration in services activity
  • Flash August S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI: 53.2 (prior 53.9) — modest deceleration but still in expansion territory

The stronger-than-expected services reading provided a supportive backdrop for Friday’s equity rebound, reinforcing resilient domestic demand even as manufacturing growth cooled slightly.

Looking Ahead

Monday (Aug 24): Nothing of note on the economic calendar.

Tuesday (Aug 25): June FHFA Housing Price Index (prior 0.3%); July S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (consensus 1.8%; prior 1.6%) at 9:00 ET; July New Home Sales (consensus 620,000; prior 628,000) and August Consumer Confidence (consensus 90.6; prior 90.8) at 10:00 ET; $69 billion 2-year Treasury note auction at 13:00 ET.

Wednesday (Aug 26): Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior -0.4%) at 7:00 ET; Q2 GDP second estimate (consensus 1.5%; prior 1.5%); Q2 GDP Deflator second estimate (consensus 6.3%); July Personal Income (consensus 0.2%), Personal Spending (consensus 0.2%), and PCE Prices (consensus 0.1%; prior -0.1%) — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings after the close will be the marquee event, particularly given this week’s sharp swings across semiconductor and AI-related names.

The broader week also features several high-profile retailer and software earnings reports, with markets closely watching whether Friday’s rebound in materials, financials, and consumer names can extend, and whether semiconductor stocks stabilize ahead of NVIDIA’s results.

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