Market Summary
U.S. equity futures are pointing to a solidly higher open on Friday, attempting to claw back some of Thursday’s sharp losses. As of 08:03 ET, S&P 500 futures sit +30.00 above fair value and Nasdaq futures are +203.00 above fair value, building on earlier premarket strength (+24.00/+202.00 at 05:44 ET). This follows a rough Thursday session in which all three major averages closed at their lows: the DJIA tumbled -703.84 points (-1.3%) to 52,759.21, the S&P 500 fell -66.82 (-0.9%) to 7,641.16, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped -263.92 (-1.0%) to 26,088.20. The major averages enter today’s session with week-to-date losses of 1.8% or wider.
Thursday’s weakness reflected a reversal of Wednesday’s rate-relief trade after the Treasury’s liquidity-buyback expansion news lost its staying power, with yields moving back up and WTI crude climbing 2.9% to $88.15/bbl on renewed Iran sanction threats. Consumer discretionary (-1.8%), consumer staples (-1.9%), and health care (-1.9%) led sector losses, driven by earnings-related selloffs in Walmart (WMT) and Moderna (MRNA), while energy (+0.4%) and real estate (+0.2%) were the lone gainers. Technology held up relatively well (-0.4%), with the PHLX Semiconductor Index actually gaining 0.5%.
This morning, yields and oil are stable after yesterday’s spike, and sentiment is buoyed by a beat-and-raise report from Ross Stores (ROST) and news that Broadcom (AVGO) is seeking over $60 billion in AI chip financing. Corporate news flow is otherwise light, with flash August PMI data the only scheduled U.S. economic release. Geopolitical risk remains in focus as Iran threatened a “devastating response” to additional U.S. sanctions, with Treasury Secretary Bessent slated to hold a press conference Monday on coordinated economic measures against Tehran.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| DJIA | 52,759.21 | -703.84 | -1.3% |
| S&P 500 | 7,641.16 | -66.82 | -0.9% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,088.20 | -263.92 | -1.0% |
Premarket Futures (08:03 ET): S&P futures +30.00 vs. fair value; Nasdaq futures +203.00 vs. fair value
YTD Performance:
- Russell 2000: +20.6%
- S&P MidCap 400: +15.3%
- Nasdaq Composite: +12.2%
- S&P 500: +11.6%
- DJIA: +9.8%
WaveFinder Breadth (21-Aug-26):
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bullish (Bulls 1,109 / Bears 780)
- 4% Sentiment: Neutral (Bulls 0 / Bears 0)
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Bearish
- Above 20-day SMA: 29%
- Above 40-day SMA: 49.46%
- 9-Month Bulls/Bears: 0/0, Follow-Through 0%
Breadth data shows a bifurcated picture — very bullish primary sentiment contrasts with bearish 40-SMA readings and just 29% of names above their 20-day moving average, suggesting narrow underlying participation despite the modest primary bullish tilt.
Sector Performance
Based on Thursday’s (20-Aug) session performance:
1. Energy: +0.4% — Only sector with a clear gain aside from real estate; supported by rising crude prices
2. Real Estate: +0.2% — Second gainer of the session
3. Information Technology: -0.4% — Narrowest loss; semiconductors (PHLX Semiconductor Index +0.5%) offset mega-cap growth weakness (Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF -0.9%)
4. Industrials: -1.2% — Pressured by rising oil/fuel costs (airlines) and defense weakness (iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF -3.6%); partially offset by earnings strength in Deere (+6.9%) and Nordson (+8.0%)
5. Consumer Discretionary: -1.8% — Cruise lines, homebuilders, apparel among laggards; iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF -2.5%; Advance Auto plunge (-24.6%) weighed on auto-parts peers
6. Health Care: -1.9% — Moderna (-23.6%) gave back prior day’s cancer-vaccine rally; Intuitive Surgical -5.8%
7. Consumer Staples: -1.9% — Walmart’s disappointing Q3 guidance (-9.15%) drove one of the day’s widest sector losses
Financials, Communication Services, Materials, and Utilities were not detailed with specific performance figures in Thursday’s Briefing.com recap. Per WaveFinder ATR (volatility) readings for today: Energy shows the highest volatility (ATR 4.03%, rising, P100), followed by Health Care (3.33%, flat, P100) and Communication Services (2.39%, rising, P100), while Utilities (-1.41%), Technology (-1.26%), and Financials (-0.13%) show comparatively muted/falling volatility.
Key Earnings & Movers
- Ross Stores (ROST) +18.26 (+8.0%) to $247.25 — Beat EPS by $0.71, beat revenue, +10% comparable sales, raised Q3/Q4 EPS guidance above consensus and lifted FY27 EPS outlook
- Broadcom (AVGO) +4.87 (+1.3%) to $368.90 — Reportedly seeking $60+ billion in funding for an AI chip financing deal (Bloomberg)
- Advance Auto (AAP) -13.79 (-24.55%) to $42.39 — Comp sales fell -0.5% (vs. +3.5% in Q1) as DIY demand weakened sharply late in the quarter; raised FY26 EPS guidance largely on tariff refunds and interest income
- Walmart (WMT) -10.46 (-9.15%) to $103.84 — Beat Q2 EPS/revenue but issued downside Q3 EPS guidance of $0.62-0.64, the third straight quarter of downside guidance; Walmart US comps of +2.6% missed internal targets
- Moderna (MRNA) -41.06 (-23.55%) to $133.32 — Gave back prior session’s cancer-vaccine rally
- Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) -23.24 (-5.84%) to $374.48
- Deere (DE) +40.31 (+6.94%) to $620.94 — Post-earnings strength
- Nordson (NDSN) +24.78 (+8.00%) to $334.70 — Post-earnings strength
- Coinbase Global (COIN) +12.15 (+7.58%) to $172.35 — Rallied on Trump’s push for Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, lifting crypto-linked names
Stock Spotlight
Walmart (WMT) delivered the session’s most consequential mega-cap move, sliding -9.15% to $103.84 despite beating Q2 (July) expectations on both lines — adjusted EPS topped estimates and revenue rose 5.9% yr/yr (+5.1% constant currency) to $187.9 billion. The disconnect stemmed from a disappointing Q3 (October) outlook: EPS guidance of $0.62-0.64 and constant-currency revenue growth of just +3.00-3.75% represent a meaningful deceleration from Q2’s pace and mark the third consecutive quarter of downside EPS guidance from the retail giant.
Underlying the guidance miss, Walmart US comps (ex-fuel) rose +2.6%, below internal expectations and a slowdown from +4.1% in Q1, +4.6% in Q4, and +4.5% in Q3, with management citing weaker health and wellness sales — pharmacy deflation tied to new maximum fair price regulation created a 125-basis-point comp headwind. Walmart delivered over 11,000 rollbacks during the quarter (up from 7,200 at Q1-end), reinforcing its price-investment strategy as management flagged incremental consumer pressure once gasoline exceeded $4/gallon. Bright spots included Sam’s Club US comps of +4.4% (accelerating sequentially) and 26% eCommerce growth, though Walmart International growth decelerated to 12.8% yr/yr (+7.9% CC) from 18.0% in Q1. The results reinforced broader consumer staples softness (-1.9% sector loss) and contributed to Thursday’s broad-based retreat.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Overnight/Premarket (21-Aug, 08:04 ET):
- 2-yr: 4.18% (-1 bp)
- 3-yr: 4.26% (-1 bp)
- 5-yr: 4.38% (-1 bp)
- 10-yr: 4.693% (+2/32 price, essentially flat/-1bp yield vs. prior close context)
- 30-yr: 5.25% (+1 bp)
Thursday’s close (20-Aug):
- 2-yr: 4.19% (+1 bp)
- 10-yr: 4.696%/4.70% (+4 bps)
Treasuries retreated Thursday as the long bond gave back most of its Wednesday rally that followed the Treasury Department’s announcement to increase long-tenor buyback sizes. The reversal was compounded by rising oil prices tied to Iran-related geopolitical tension (tanker hijacking in the Gulf of Aden) and President Trump’s threat of “crushing” economic pressure on Iran. Overnight, Treasury futures traded in a thin range with longer-dated JGBs facing some pressure; strong flash PMI data out of the eurozone (highest in four-plus years) and Japan added to the mixed global rates backdrop. The U.S. session today brings only flash S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMIs at 9:45 ET (priors: 53.9/54.6).
Commodities
| Commodity | Level | Change |
|—|—|—|
| WTI Crude Oil | $86.61/bbl (premarket) | -0.3% (after settling $88.15, +$2.47/+2.9% Thursday) |
| Natural Gas | $2.73 | -0.08 (Thursday) |
| Gold | $4,657.00/ozt (premarket) | +1.9% (after +$23.80 to $4,569.60 Thursday) |
| Silver | $68.10 | +$2.29 (Thursday) |
| Copper | $6.614/lb (premarket) | +2.3% |
Crude oil pulled back modestly overnight after Thursday’s near-3% surge tied to escalating Iran tensions and shipping disruptions in the Gulf of Aden. Gold continued its ascent, up nearly 2% in premarket trade, extending Thursday’s rally as investors sought safety amid rising rates and geopolitical risk. Copper also advanced sharply overnight.
Overseas Markets
Asia-Pacific (mostly higher to close the week):
- Hang Seng: 26,009.46, +311.00 (+1.2%)
- Kospi: +0.9%
- Nikkei: 66,016.36, -200.40 (-0.3%)
- ASX All Ordinaries: -0.3%
- Shanghai Composite: UNCH
- Sensex: UNCH
Key drivers: South Korea’s exports through the first 20 days of August rose 56% yr/yr with chip exports nearly tripling; Japan’s PM Takaichi plans cabinet changes in mid-September; China to expand joint military exercises with Indonesia and plans further economic talks with Canada.
Europe (quiet, mostly higher):
- STOXX Europe 600: +0.1%
- Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.8% (relative outperformer)
- Germany’s DAX: +0.2%
- U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.2%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.2%
- France’s CAC 40: +0.1%
Key drivers: ECB’s Kazaks reiterated a data-dependent September decision; eurozone year-ahead CPI expectations eased to 2.9% from 3.0%; France reportedly looking to renew a large corporate profit tax that generated ~EUR7.5 billion in 2025 revenue.
Economic Data
- Japan Flash August Manufacturing PMI: 55.1 (as expected; prior 54.5) — 8th consecutive month of expansion
- Japan Flash August Services PMI: 52.3 (prior 51.2)
- Japan July National CPI: +0.4% m/m (prior 0.3%); +1.9% yr/yr (prior 1.6%); Core CPI +1.8% yr/yr, as expected
- Eurozone Flash August Manufacturing PMI: 52.8 (expected 51.8; prior 51.9) — highest level in more than four years
- Eurozone Flash August Services PMI: 51.7 (expected 51.5; prior 51.7)
- Germany Flash August Manufacturing PMI: 54.1 (expected 52.1; prior 52.2) — notable beat
- Germany Flash August Services PMI: 48.5 (expected 50.1; prior 49.8) — miss, contraction territory
- U.K. July Retail Sales: -0.5% m/m (expected -0.4%; prior 0.7%); +1.6% yr/yr (expected 2.2%; prior 3.8%) — miss
- U.K. Flash August Manufacturing PMI: 51.5 (expected 51.6; prior 51.9)
- U.K. Flash August Services PMI: 52.8 (expected 51.8; prior 52.1)
- France Flash August Manufacturing PMI: 51.5 (expected 50.1; prior 49.8) — beat
- China July FDI: -6.2% YTD (prior -5.0%) — deteriorating
- South Korea July PPI: -0.4% m/m (prior 0.0%); +7.7% yr/yr (prior 8.5%)
Yesterday’s (20-Aug) U.S. data:
- Philadelphia Fed Index (August): 47.4 (Briefing.com consensus 25.0; prior 41.4) — sharp acceleration in manufacturing activity
- Initial Jobless Claims: 206K (consensus 206K; prior revised to 212K) — in line
- Continuing Claims: 1.799 million (prior revised to 1.781 million)
- Leading Economic Index (July): +0.2% (consensus -0.1%; prior revised to -0.1%) — notable upside surprise
Today’s U.S. data: Flash S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI due at 9:45 ET (priors: 53.9 and 54.6, respectively) — the sole U.S. economic release of the session.
Looking Ahead
- 9:45 ET (today): Flash S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (prior 53.9) and Flash Services PMI (prior 54.6)
- Monday: Treasury Secretary Bessent press conference on additional coordinated economic measures against Iran — described as potentially the “greatest coordinated economic isolation in the history of the world”
- Continued monitoring of Treasury yield direction (30-yr at 5.25%) and oil prices (WTI ~$86-88/bbl) as key swing factors for equity sentiment
- Watch for follow-through on geopolitical developments regarding Iran sanctions and any tanker/shipping security updates in the Gulf of Aden
- Corporate news flow remains light heading into the weekend; investors will assess whether Friday’s futures strength (S&P +30, Nasdaq +203) can offset this week’s cumulative losses of 1.8%+ across major indices