Market Summary
U.S. equities closed out the week with a strong broad-based advance on Friday, October 2, as the S&P 500 climbed 0.73% to 7,722.82, the Nasdaq Composite surged 1.19% to 27,211.90, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.49% to finish at 51,176.87. The session’s momentum was triggered by a softer-than-expected September Employment Situation report — nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 versus the 100,000 consensus — which reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will stand pat at the upcoming October FOMC meeting. Stocks surged to session highs in the morning before giving back some ground as Treasury yields reversed higher into the afternoon, though the major averages still closed near their best levels of the day.
Technology and mega-cap growth names again provided the backbone of the rally, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index jumping 2.4% and NVIDIA (NVDA) adding 1.34%. Consumer Discretionary led all sectors (+1.4%), fueled by a blowout Tesla delivery report, while all 11 S&P 500 sectors finished at or above the flat line — a notable broadening of participation versus the narrow, mega-cap-led pattern of recent weeks. Small- and mid-cap stocks also outperformed, with the Russell 2000 (+0.9%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+1.0%) both topping the S&P 500’s gain, though the Equal-Weighted S&P 500 (+0.4%) still trailed the cap-weighted index, underscoring that mega-cap and technology leadership remains the dominant market driver.
For the week, however, the picture was more mixed: the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% and the DJIA fell 1.3%, while only the Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.5%) managed weekly gains, as persistent pressure from rising Treasury yields — which touched their highest levels of the year — offset continued semiconductor strength.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,176.87 | +250.40 | +0.49% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,211.90 | +319.27 | +1.19% |
| S&P 500 | 7,722.82 | +56.27 | +0.73% |
Breadth (NYSE): Advancers 1,673 | Decliners 1,071 | Volume 1.25 bln shares
Breadth (Nasdaq): Advancers 2,822 | Decliners 2,110 | Volume 7.97 bln shares
WaveFinder Market Breadth (as of 10/02/26):
- Primary Trend Sentiment: Bearish (Bulls 434 / Bears 664)
- 4% Sentiment: Bullish (Bulls 218 / Bears 123)
- 40-Day SMA Sentiment: Bullish
- 9-Month Bulls: 20 | Bears: 7 (33.33% follow-through)
- Stocks Above 20-Day SMA: 29%
- Stocks Above 40-Day SMA: 21.65%
YTD Performance: Nasdaq Composite +17.0% | Russell 2000 +14.1% | S&P 500 +12.8% | S&P Mid Cap 400 +11.0% | DJIA +6.5%
Note: Despite Friday’s broad advance, WaveFinder’s primary trend reading remains bearish, with fewer than one-third of stocks holding above their 20- and 40-day moving averages — a divergence from the day’s positive headline index action.
Sector Performance
Ranked by Friday session performance (Briefing.com):
1. Consumer Discretionary: +1.4% — Top performer, led by Tesla’s delivery beat
2. Information Technology: +1.1% — Semiconductor strength (PHLX Semi Index +2.4%)
3. Materials: +1.0%
4. Communication Services: +0.9% — Mega-cap strength
5. Real Estate — Listed among “Strong” sectors (specific % not detailed)
6-9. Industrials, Consumer Staples, Energy, Utilities — Not individually detailed, but per Briefing.com commentary, all 11 S&P 500 sectors finished at or above their flat lines
10. Health Care: Flat — Weighed down by continued biotech weakness
11. Financials: Flat — Session laggard alongside Health Care
WaveFinder Sector ATR/Volatility (trend context):
- Technology: ATR 2.84% (rising, Percentile 100) — highest volatility reading
- Utilities: ATR -3.15% (rising, P58)
- Real Estate: ATR -3.86% (falling, P5)
- Health Care: ATR 0.88% (falling, P11)
- Financials: ATR -2.20% (falling, P21)
- Industrials: ATR -2.16% (flat, P32)
- Consumer Discretionary: ATR -2.33% (flat, P11)
- Materials: ATR -2.05% (falling, P11)
- Consumer Staples: ATR -1.92% (falling, P11)
- Communication Services: ATR -1.65% (falling, P5)
- Energy: ATR -0.56% (falling, P32)
Key Earnings & Movers
- Tesla (TSLA) $370.59, +16.48 (+4.65%) — Jumped after reporting Q3 deliveries of 486,532 vehicles, topping its company-compiled consensus of 461,974.
- SpaceX (SPCX) $158.95, +10.88 (+7.35%) — Rallied on favorable analyst commentary regarding demand for its Grok Bot.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) $233.95, +3.09 (+1.34%) — Led semiconductor strength amid a 2.4% gain in the PHLX Semiconductor Index.
- NIKE (NKE) $33.90, -1.26 (-3.57%) — Fell to fresh decade lows after issuing a disappointing FY27 outlook despite a Q1 (Aug) EPS beat.
- Western Digital (WDC) $415.29, -47.27 (-10.22%) — Plunged on Toshiba’s announcement of expanded HDD production capacity.
- Seagate Technology (STX) $848.99, -96.58 (-10.21%) — Fell in sympathy with WDC on the same supply-side concerns.
Stock Spotlight
NIKE (NKE) delivered one of the session’s most consequential disappointments, sliding to new decade lows despite beating Q1 (August) EPS expectations at $0.48. Revenue declined 4% year-over-year to $11.21 billion, slightly missing consensus, but the real blow came from management’s FY27 guidance: revenue is now expected to decline in the high-single-digit range, with adjusted EPS guided to just $1.15-$1.35 — well below prior expectations. The report revealed continued deterioration in core franchises, with Sportswear (nearly half of Q1 revenue) down low-double-digits and Jordan Brand down mid-teens, as management admitted to oversupplying Jordan retro product and will now reduce launch volume to restore scarcity.
Geographically, the divergence was stark: North America grew 2%, aided by strength in Running, Global Football, and Basketball, while Greater China cratered 26%, with management warning that trends there will worsen through the balance of FY27 amid ongoing digital distribution and inventory cleanup. Gross margin did expand 60 basis points to 42.8% on supply chain efficiencies and FX tailwinds, but this was offset by heavier discounting. NIKE unveiled a new operating-model transformation targeting approximately $2.5 billion in cumulative savings through FY31 (against ~$1.0 billion in pre-tax charges), with a full five-year financial framework due at November’s Investor Day — signaling that the turnaround timeline keeps extending further into the future.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Treasuries finished the week with losses across the curve, with longer tenors ending near their highest yields of the year despite an early rally sparked by the weak jobs report.
| Tenor | Yield | Daily Change | Weekly Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| 2-Year | 4.82% | +3 bps | +4 bps |
| 3-Year | 4.96% | +6 bps | +2 bps |
| 5-Year | 5.06% | +5 bps | +5 bps |
| 10-Year | 5.28% | +4 bps | +10 bps |
| 30-Year | 5.63% | +3 bps | +13 bps |
Key Drivers: An initial rally following the soft September payrolls report (29K vs. 100K consensus) faded within roughly 90 minutes as yields reversed back to pre-data levels, with selling intensifying into the early afternoon. Supply and fiscal concerns remained in focus globally — Japan’s PM Takaichi reassured markets that JGB issuance will be controlled appropriately, while South Korea’s finance ministry signaled it would reduce bond issuance if needed. ECB’s Olli Rehn noted that higher longer-term rates are expected to slow growth.
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil: $91.10/bbl, -2.1% (-$1.92) — Pressured by a coordinated G7/IEA release of 100 million barrels of oil over four months; briefly dipped below $90/bbl intraday before paring losses. Down roughly 1.5% for the week.
- Gold: $4,162.60/ozt, -1.2%
- Copper: $6.55/lb, -0.5%
Overseas Markets
Specific overseas equity index levels were not detailed in today’s data; however, key macro releases from Asia and Europe moved currency and rate markets:
- Japan: September Tokyo CPI +2.7% yr/yr (prior 1.9%); Tokyo Core CPI +2.7% yr/yr (expected 2.4%, prior 1.8%); Tokyo CPI ex-food/energy +2.7% yr/yr (prior 1.4%); August Unemployment Rate rose to 2.5% (expected 2.4%, prior 2.4%).
- South Korea: September CPI +0.3% m/m (expected 0.4%, prior 0.2%), +2.9% yr/yr (expected 2.9%, prior 3.1%).
- Eurozone: September CPI +0.6% m/m (prior 0.4%), +3.8% yr/yr (expected 3.7%, prior 3.2%); Core CPI +0.2% m/m, +2.5% yr/yr (expected 2.5%, prior 2.4%).
- Spain: September Unemployment increased by 23.6K (expected 17.6K, prior 44.4K).
- Italy: August Retail Sales +0.3% m/m (expected -0.1%, prior -0.4%), +0.5% yr/yr (prior 1.0%).
Currencies: EUR/USD +0.1% to 1.1251 | GBP/USD +0.4% to 1.3240 | USD/CNH -0.1% to 6.7063 | USD/JPY -0.2% to 157.78
Economic Data
- September Nonfarm Payrolls: 29K (Briefing.com consensus 100K; prior 133K, revised from 162K). 3-month average held at 51,000.
- September Private Payrolls: 46K (consensus 100K; prior 89K, revised from 127K).
- September Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (consensus 4.1%; prior 4.1%). Long-term unemployed (27+ weeks) rose to 27.1% of total from 27.0%. U6 rate eased to 7.6% from 7.7%.
- September Average Hourly Earnings: +0.1% m/m (consensus 0.3%; prior 0.3%); +3.0% yr/yr vs. +3.1% in August.
- September Average Workweek: 34.4 hours (consensus 34.3; prior 34.4); manufacturing workweek unchanged at 40.6 hours.
- Labor Force Participation Rate: Rose to 61.8% from 61.6%; Employment-Population Ratio rose to 59.2% from 59.1%.
- August Factory Orders: +0.1% m/m (consensus 0.0%; prior +0.8%, revised from +0.9%); ex-transportation +0.3% (prior +0.7%). Shipments flat after +0.8% in July.
Market Impact: The weak payrolls print reinforced expectations the Fed will hold rates steady at the October FOMC meeting, sparking an early equity rally and bond rally; however, the bond rally reversed by midday, and longer-dated yields closed near weekly highs despite the soft labor data.
Looking Ahead
Monday:
- Final September S&P Global U.S. Services PMI (prior 58.7) — 9:45 ET
- September ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 55.7; prior 55.4) — 10:00 ET
Tuesday:
- August Trade Balance (Briefing.com consensus -$93.7 bln; prior -$88.6 bln) — 8:30 ET
- $58 billion 3-Year Treasury Note Auction — 13:00 ET
Wednesday:
- Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior -6.0%) — 7:00 ET
- Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (prior +0.9 mln bbls) — time TBD
Investors will continue monitoring the trajectory of Treasury yields, which remain near their highest levels of the year, alongside any further developments on oil supply following the coordinated G7/IEA reserve release. NIKE’s November Investor Day, where a five-year financial framework is expected, will also be a key forward-looking catalyst to watch.