Market Summary
U.S. equities closed out the week with a broad Friday advance, as the S&P 500 gained 56.27 points (+0.73%) to settle at 7722.82, the Nasdaq Composite surged 319.27 points (+1.19%) to 27211.90, and the DJIA rose 250.40 points (+0.49%) to 51176.87. The session’s momentum was set in motion by a softer-than-expected September Employment Situation report, which initially drove Treasury yields and oil prices lower and reinforced market expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady at its upcoming FOMC meeting. Small- and mid-cap stocks also joined the rally, with the Russell 2000 adding 0.9% and the S&P Mid Cap 400 climbing 1.0%, both outperforming the S&P 500 in a notable improvement from the narrow, mega-cap-driven participation seen through much of September.
Technology and mega-cap growth names remained the market’s primary engine, with the Information Technology sector up 1.1% and the PHLX Semiconductor Index jumping 2.4% on the day. Consumer Discretionary topped the sector leaderboard (+1.4%), fueled by a strong Tesla delivery beat, while Communication Services (+0.9%) and Materials (+1.0%) also outperformed. Notably, all 11 S&P 500 sectors finished at or above their flat lines, though Health Care and Financials lagged as the session’s weakest groups. Despite the broadly positive tape, the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index gained a more modest 0.4%, underscoring that cap-weighted mega-cap leadership continued to do much of the heavy lifting.
For the week, however, the picture was less rosy: the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% and the DJIA fell 1.3%, while only the Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.5%) managed weekly gains. Elevated Treasury yields — with the 10-year note hitting 5.28%, its highest level of the year — remained a persistent headwind for the broader market even as inflation and labor data softened expectations for additional Fed tightening.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| S&P 500 | 7722.82 | +56.27 | +0.73% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27211.90 | +319.27 | +1.19% |
| DJIA | 51176.87 | +250.40 | +0.49% |
NYSE Breadth: Advancers 1,673 | Decliners 1,071 | Volume 1.25 bln shares
Nasdaq Breadth: Advancers 2,822 | Decliners 2,110 | Volume 7.97 bln shares
WaveFinder Market Breadth (as of 10/02/2026):
- Primary Trend Sentiment: Bearish (Bulls 434 | Bears 664)
- 4% Model Sentiment: Bullish (Bulls 218 | Bears 123)
- 40-Day SMA Sentiment: Bullish
- % of Stocks Above 20-Day SMA: 29%
- % of Stocks Above 40-Day SMA: 21.65%
- 9-Month Model: Bulls 20 | Bears 7 (Follow-Through: 33.33%)
YTD Performance: Nasdaq +17.0% | Russell 2000 +14.1% | S&P 500 +12.8% | S&P Mid Cap 400 +11.0% | DJIA +6.5%
Note: Breadth data reflects a divergence worth flagging for traders — while headline indices rallied sharply Friday, underlying WaveFinder metrics show a “Bearish” primary sentiment reading and only ~22-29% of stocks trading above key moving averages, reinforcing the narrative of narrow, mega-cap-concentrated leadership beneath the surface.
Sector Performance
Ranked by Friday session performance (Briefing.com):
1. Consumer Discretionary +1.4% — Top performer, led by Tesla’s delivery beat
2. Information Technology +1.1% — Semiconductor strength (PHLX Semi Index +2.4%)
3. Materials +1.0% — Standout gainer
4. Communication Services +0.9% — Mega-cap strength
5. Real Estate — Listed among “Strong” sectors (specific % not disclosed)
6. Industrials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities — Finished positive but specific session percentages not disclosed; all 11 sectors closed at or above flat line
7. Health Care Flat — Session laggard, weighed down by continued biotech weakness
7. Financials Flat — Session laggard
WaveFinder Sector Volatility (ATR, trend):
- Technology: 2.84% (Rising, P100 — highest percentile)
- Utilities: -3.15% (Rising, P58)
- Industrials: -2.16% (Flat, P32)
- Energy: -0.56% (Falling, P32)
- Financials: -2.20% (Falling, P21)
- Consumer Discretionary: -2.33% (Flat, P11)
- Health Care: 0.88% (Falling, P11)
- Consumer Staples: -1.92% (Falling, P11)
- Materials: -2.05% (Falling, P11)
- Communication Services: -1.65% (Falling, P5)
- Real Estate: -3.86% (Falling, P5)
Technology stands out with rising volatility at the 100th percentile, consistent with its outsized role in Friday’s rally and the week’s semiconductor-led strength.
Key Earnings & Movers
- Tesla (TSLA) $370.59, +$16.48 (+4.65%) — Rallied after reporting Q3 deliveries of 486,532 vehicles, well above the company-compiled analyst consensus of 461,974.
- SpaceX (SPCX) $158.95, +$10.88 (+7.35%) — Climbed on favorable analyst commentary regarding demand for its Grok Bot.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) $233.95, +$3.09 (+1.34%) — Notable semiconductor winner as the group broadly outperformed.
- NIKE (NKE) $33.90, -$1.26 (-3.57%) — Fell to fresh decade lows following a disappointing FY27 outlook despite a Q1 EPS beat.
- Western Digital (WDC) $415.29, -$47.27 (-10.22%) — Hit hard after Toshiba announced expanded HDD production capacity in the Philippines.
- Seagate Technology (STX) $848.99, -$96.58 (-10.21%) — Fell in tandem with WDC on the same Toshiba capacity-expansion news.
Stock Spotlight
NIKE (NKE) — New Decade Lows on Disappointing FY27 Outlook
NIKE shares tumbled to fresh decade lows Friday, falling 3.57% to $33.90 (after an 8% single-day drop earlier in the week per morning commentary), as the company’s fiscal first-quarter earnings report pivoted from mild optimism to significant concern over forward guidance. While Q1 (August) EPS of $0.48 beat expectations, revenue declined 4% year-over-year to $11.21 billion, slightly missing consensus. The real damage came from NIKE’s FY27 guidance: management now expects revenue to decline in the high-single-digit range for the full year, with adjusted EPS guided to just $1.15–$1.35, well below prior expectations.
The report revealed continued deterioration in core franchises — Sportswear (just under half of Q1 revenue) fell low-double-digits, and Jordan Brand dropped mid-teens, with management admitting it had oversupplied Jordan retro product and will cut launch volume to restore scarcity. Geographically, Greater China was the biggest sore spot, plunging 26%, with management warning trends there will worsen through the rest of FY27 amid ongoing digital distribution and inventory cleanup. North America was a relative bright spot, growing 2% on strength in Running, Global Football, and Basketball. Gross margin did expand 60 basis points to 42.8% on supply chain efficiencies and FX tailwinds, but this was offset by heavier discounting. Looking forward, NIKE unveiled a new operating-model transformation targeting roughly $2.5 billion in cumulative savings through FY31 against about $1.0 billion in pre-tax charges, with a more detailed five-year framework promised at its November Investor Day. The market’s takeaway: NIKE’s turnaround keeps getting pushed further out, with FY27 EBIT expected to decline faster than revenue.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Treasuries finished the week with losses across the curve, reversing a brief morning rally sparked by the weak jobs report, as yields on longer tenors closed back near their highest levels of the year.
Friday Session Yield Changes:
- 2-Year: +3 bps to 4.82% (+4 bps week-to-date)
- 3-Year: +6 bps to 4.96% (+2 bps week-to-date)
- 5-Year: +5 bps to 5.06% (+5 bps week-to-date)
- 10-Year: +4 bps to 5.28% (+10 bps week-to-date) — highest level of the year
- 30-Year: +3 bps to 5.63% (+13 bps week-to-date)
10-Yr Note price: -9/32
Key Drivers: The September jobs report (29K nonfarm payrolls vs. 100K consensus) triggered an initial rally as traders speculated it would reduce the odds of further Fed tightening. However, short tenors reverted to pre-NFP levels within 90 minutes, and selling pressure built through the session, pushing 10s and 30s back toward weekly highs. Overseas, Japan PM Takaichi reassured markets that JGB issuance would be controlled, South Korea’s finance ministry signaled it could reduce bond issuance if needed, and ECB’s Rehn warned that higher long-term rates are expected to slow growth.
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil: $91.10/bbl, -2.1% (-$1.92) — Pressured by a coordinated G7/IEA release of 100 million barrels of strategic reserves over four months; briefly dipped below $90/bbl intraday before recovering part of the decline.
- Gold: $4,162.60/ozt, -1.2%
- Copper: $6.55/lb, -0.5%
- (Silver data not provided in source material)
Currencies: EUR/USD +0.1% to 1.1251 | GBP/USD +0.4% to 1.3240 | USD/CNH -0.1% to 6.7063 | USD/JPY -0.2% to 157.78
Overseas Markets
Specific overseas index levels were not provided in the source data; however, key macro headlines from Asia and Europe influenced sentiment:
Asia:
- Japan’s September Tokyo CPI: +2.7% yr/yr (prior 1.9%); Tokyo Core CPI +2.7% yr/yr (expected 2.4%, prior 1.8%); Tokyo CPI ex-food/energy +2.7% yr/yr (prior 1.4%); August Unemployment Rate rose to 2.5% (expected 2.4%, prior 2.4%)
- South Korea’s September CPI: +0.3% m/m (expected 0.4%, prior 0.2%); +2.9% yr/yr (expected 2.9%, prior 3.1%)
- Toshiba announced HDD capacity expansion in the Philippines, targeting 30% HDD market share by storage capacity medium-term, roughly ¥60 bln ($380 mln) investment — heavily pressured U.S.-listed WDC and STX
Europe:
- Eurozone September CPI: +0.6% m/m (prior 0.4%); +3.8% yr/yr (expected 3.7%, prior 3.2%); Core CPI +0.2% m/m, +2.5% yr/yr (expected 2.5%, prior 2.4%)
- Spain’s September Unemployment increased by 23.6K (expected 17.6K, prior 44.4K)
- Italy’s August Retail Sales: +0.3% m/m (expected -0.1%, prior -0.4%); +0.5% yr/yr (prior 1.0%)
- ECB’s Rehn commented that higher longer-term rates are expected to slow growth
- European nations reportedly considering releasing diesel/strategic oil reserves, contributing to Friday’s crude oil decline
Economic Data
September Employment Situation Report (released Friday):
- Nonfarm Payrolls: +29,000 (consensus +100,000; August revised to +133,000 from +162,000; July revised to -10,000 from +21,000)
- Private Sector Payrolls: +46,000 (consensus +100,000; August revised to +89,000 from +127,000)
- Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (consensus 4.1%; prior 4.1%)
- Average Hourly Earnings: +0.1% m/m (consensus +0.3%; prior +0.3%); +3.0% yr/yr (vs. +3.1% in August)
- Average Workweek: 34.4 hours (consensus 34.3; prior 34.4)
- U6 Unemployment Rate: 7.6% (down from 7.7%)
- Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.8% (up from 61.6%)
- Employment-Population Ratio: 59.2% (up from 59.1%)
Market Impact: The weaker-than-expected payroll growth and uptick in unemployment reinforced expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady at the October FOMC meeting, providing the catalyst for the morning’s sharp rally in equities and initial decline in Treasury yields (later reversed).
August Factory Orders: +0.1% m/m (consensus 0.0%; prior revised to +0.8% from +0.9%); Ex-transportation +0.3% (prior +0.7%); shipments flat (prior +0.8%) — indicates solid underlying business spending despite a sluggish headline figure.
Looking Ahead
Monday:
- Final September S&P Global U.S. Services PMI (prior 58.7) — 9:45 ET
- September ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (consensus 55.7; prior 55.4) — 10:00 ET
Tuesday:
- August Trade Balance (consensus -$93.7 bln; prior -$88.6 bln) — 8:30 ET
- $58 billion 3-Year Treasury Note Auction — 13:00 ET
Wednesday:
- Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior -6.0%) — 7:00 ET
- Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (prior +0.9… data incomplete in source)
Markets will continue to monitor incoming Fed commentary ahead of the October FOMC meeting, along with any further developments on oil supply dynamics following the G7/IEA strategic reserve release and ongoing geopolitical negotiations.