Market Summary
U.S. equities snapped a four-session losing streak on Friday, staging a broad rebound to close out a turbulent, holiday-shortened trading week. The S&P 500 gained 65.28 points (+0.86%) to close at 7656.98, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 509.19 points (+0.98%) to 52573.29, and the Nasdaq Composite added 251.31 points (+0.96%) to finish at 26354.08. The Russell 2000 (+0.5%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.8%) also participated in the advance, though with somewhat less enthusiasm than the large-cap benchmarks.
Two catalysts drove the session: a retreat in crude oil prices following reports that Gulf states will meet with Iran on Monday to discuss the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed leadership from mega-cap technology and AI-infrastructure names. This occurred despite an August CPI report that reinforced expectations for a rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting — the CME FedWatch Tool now assigns an 86.5% probability to a 25-basis-point hike, up sharply from 69.4% ahead of the report. Communication services (+1.4%), information technology (+1.1%), industrials (+1.1%), and consumer discretionary (+1.1%) led the advance, while health care (-0.1%) and utilities (-0.3%) lagged as the session’s only decliners.
Despite Friday’s strength, the major averages still finished firmly lower for the holiday-shortened week: the S&P 500 fell 0.8%, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.7%, the DJIA lost 1.6%, the Russell 2000 tumbled 2.4%, and the S&P Mid Cap 400 declined 1.9%. Surging oil prices (WTI +10% for the week) and a sharp climb in Treasury yields were the dominant headwinds, with attention now turning squarely to the September 15-16 FOMC decision.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| Dow Jones | 52,573.29 | +509.19 | +0.98% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,354.08 | +251.31 | +0.96% |
| S&P 500 | 7,656.98 | +65.28 | +0.86% |
Breadth (NYSE): Advancers 1,662 | Decliners 1,060 | Volume 1.12 bln shares
Breadth (Nasdaq): Advancers 2,866 | Decliners 2,026 | Volume 6.60 bln shares
WaveFinder Breadth Metrics:
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bullish (Bulls 785 / Bears 765)
- 4% Sentiment: Bullish (Bulls 125 / Bears 64)
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Bearish
- Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 32.0%
- Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 31.57%
- 9-Month Bulls: 17 | Bears: 3 (Follow-Through: 23.08%)
The bullish short-term sentiment reading contrasts with a bearish 40-SMA signal and just ~32% of stocks trading above key moving averages — indicating Friday’s rally was a sharp bounce within a still-fragile intermediate-term technical backdrop.
Sector Performance
Ranked by Friday’s session performance (Briefing.com Industry Watch):
1. Communication Services +1.4% — mega-cap strength (Alphabet)
2. Information Technology +1.1% — semiconductor and hardware rebound
3. Industrials +1.1%
4. Consumer Discretionary +1.1%
5. Financials — not separately quantified for the session; among Strong/Weak lists not specified
6. Materials — not specified for the session
7. Energy — not specified for the session
8. Real Estate — not specified for the session
9. Consumer Staples — not specified for the session
10. Health Care -0.1% — laggard
11. Utilities -0.3% — session’s weakest sector
Volatility Watch (WaveFinder Sector ATR): Energy carries the highest volatility reading at 1.83% (falling, P5), followed by Health Care at 0.88% (falling, P5) and Technology at 0.68% (rising, P100 — at its volatility ceiling). Real Estate (-2.70%), Utilities (-2.55%), and Industrials (-1.89%) show the most suppressed volatility readings, each falling or flat.
Key Earnings & Movers
- Dell Technologies (DELL) 567.14, +60.52 (+11.95%) — surged on AI-infrastructure demand read-through from Oracle’s cloud results.
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) 62.08, +6.86 (+12.42%) — biggest percentage gainer among AI-infrastructure beneficiaries.
- Apple (AAPL) 332.27, +5.70 (+1.75%) — led mega-cap tech higher.
- Alphabet (GOOG) 335.45, +5.06 (+1.53%) — contributed to communication services strength.
- Oracle (ORCL) 150.15, -2.79 (-1.82%) — gave back an initial double-digit intraday pop despite strong quarterly metrics (see Spotlight below).
- Kroger (KR) — traded notably higher after beating Q2 EPS expectations; revenue rose 2% yr/yr to $34.6 billion.
- RH — shares gained after a large Q2 earnings beat, despite below-consensus Q3 revenue guidance.
- Amgen (AMGN) 393.17, -44.06 (-10.08%) — earlier in the week, fell sharply on clinical trial setbacks at Novartis.
- Novartis (NVS) 137.70, -22.29 (-13.93%) — earlier in the week, weighed on biotech sentiment broadly.
Stock Spotlight
Oracle (ORCL) was the session’s most consequential story, even though shares ultimately closed lower by $2.79 (-1.82%) at $150.15 after initially jumping by double digits on its quarterly report. The company posted 121% year-over-year growth in cloud infrastructure revenue and disclosed more than $30 billion in new AI-cloud contracts, while maintaining its FY27 capital spending plans — all of which reinforced the market’s conviction that AI-driven data center investment remains firmly intact.
The read-through proved more powerful than Oracle’s own stock reaction: Dell Technologies (DELL) rocketed 11.95% to $567.14 and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) jumped 12.42% to $62.08, as investors positioned for sustained demand across servers, networking equipment, and storage tied to AI infrastructure buildouts. The divergence between Oracle’s fade and the surge in server/hardware names underscores how the market is increasingly parsing the AI capex trade by degree of direct exposure to infrastructure spending rather than treating it as a monolithic theme.
Bond Market & Treasuries
U.S. Treasuries finished mostly lower Friday, capping a rough week in which yields across the curve hit fresh highs for the year.
Yield Changes (Friday / Week-to-date):
- 2-Year: 4.64% (+9 bps / +26 bps week)
- 3-Year: 4.73% (+8 bps / +28 bps week)
- 5-Year: 4.79% (+6 bps / +24 bps week)
- 10-Year: 4.98% (+3 bps / +20 bps week) — intraday traded as high as 4.975%
- 30-Year: 5.36% (-1 bp / +11 bps week)
The curve flattened on the week, with the 2s10s spread compressing 6 basis points to 34 bps and the 2s30s spread tightening 15 basis points to 72 bps. The primary driver was firming rate-hike expectations following the hotter-than-expected core CPI print, which pushed the market-implied probability of a 25-bp hike at next week’s FOMC meeting to as high as 90% intraday before settling near 86.5%. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.1% to 99.14, returning to its 200-day moving average and finishing roughly unchanged for the week.
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil: $100.08/bbl, -$2.31 (-2.3%) — retreated on reports of a Monday meeting between Gulf states and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz, though still up roughly 10% for the week on prior escalation concerns.
- Gold: $4,409.10/ozt, unchanged
- Copper: $6.55/lb, unchanged
- Silver: No data provided
Overseas Markets
Specific index-level data for Asian and European markets was not provided; however, key overseas developments included:
- South Korea: First-ten-days-of-September exports up 82.6% yr/yr, with chip exports soaring 270.1%.
- Japan: August PPI fell 0.2% m/m (expected 0.0%) but rose 7.6% yr/yr (expected 7.4%). Q3 BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions index rose sharply to 7.6 from -1.8 (expected 2.5).
- U.K.: July GDP expanded 0.4% m/m (expected 0.0%), up 1.6% yr/yr. Industrial Production rose 0.2% m/m and Manufacturing Production jumped 0.9% m/m, both beating expectations. Trade deficit narrowed to GBP 20.97 billion.
- China: Released a five-year plan for developing intelligent connected new-energy vehicles; foreign automakers reportedly cutting prices on gas-powered vehicles in China.
- Europe: Several ECB policymakers flagged persistently high inflation, fueling speculation of an October rate hike. France’s finance ministry cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.5% from 0.7%.
- New Zealand: August Business PMI eased to 53.1 from 54.3.
- Italy: Q2 unemployment rate rose to 5.6% from 5.3% (expected 5.4%).
Economic Data
- August CPI: +0.4% m/m (in line with consensus); Core CPI +0.3% m/m (hotter than the 0.2% Briefing.com consensus). Year-over-year, total CPI held at 3.4% and core CPI eased slightly to 2.4% from 2.5%. Takeaway: not enough progress to prevent a rate hike next week.
- September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary): 47.8, well below the 51.5 consensus and down from 51.7 in August — driven by a deteriorating outlook for personal finances and business conditions.
- Treasury Budget: August deficit of $166.8 billion (vs. -$485.0 billion consensus estimate); down 52% yr/yr, though the fiscal year-to-date deficit remains near a record $1.97 trillion, with interest costs up 13% yr/yr.
Looking Ahead
Monday, Sept 14: No notable economic releases scheduled.
Tuesday, Sept 15:
- September Empire State Manufacturing Index (consensus 14.1; prior 20.6) at 8:30 ET
- $13 billion 20-year Treasury bond reopening results at 13:00 ET
- FOMC meeting begins (Day 1)
Wednesday, Sept 16:
- Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior -2.7%) at 7:00 ET
- August Retail Sales (consensus +0.9%; prior -0.6%) and Retail Sales ex-auto (consensus +0.5%; prior -0.3%) at 8:30 ET
- August Import/Export Prices at 8:30 ET
- July Business Inventories (consensus +0.2%; prior 0.0%) and September NAHB Housing Market Index at 10:00 ET
- FOMC Rate Decision — market pricing ~86.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike, the week’s central catalyst
Markets will remain highly sensitive to any incremental Strait of Hormuz de-escalation headlines following Monday’s scheduled Gulf states-Iran meeting, as well as continued AI-infrastructure spending commentary following this week’s Oracle, Dell, and HPE moves.