Market Summary
U.S. equities closed lower on Friday, September 4, capping a volatile week as a stronger-than-expected August Employment Report reshaped rate-hike expectations ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. The S&P 500 fell 29.11 points (-0.38%) to 7718.60, the Dow shed 271.86 points (-0.51%) to 53414.25, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 77.07 points (-0.29%) to 26528.04. Small- and mid-caps bucked the trend, with the Russell 2000 (+0.3%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.1%) posting modest gains.
The primary catalyst was the August jobs data: nonfarm payrolls surged to 162,000 versus a Briefing.com consensus of just 45,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% (better than the 4.2% expected) and average hourly earnings rose 0.3%. The report pushed the probability of a September rate hike to roughly 60% from about 50% a day earlier, per the CME FedWatch Tool, and drew hawkish commentary from voting FOMC member Beth Hammack, who said “it’s time to act.” Treasury yields backed up in response, pressuring rate-sensitive and growth-oriented names.
Beneath the surface, dispersion was significant. Semiconductor stocks rallied sharply (PHLX Semiconductor Index +3.4%) on strength in memory names, lifting the information technology (+0.2%) and industrials (+0.4%) sectors to the top of the leaderboard, even as software stocks sold off hard (iShares GS Software ETF -2.2%). Consumer discretionary (-1.3%) led decliners as Tesla (-5.92%) reversed Thursday’s rally and lululemon (-17.38%) collapsed on a disappointing guidance cut. Credit-scoring names FICO, Equifax, and TransUnion were also hit hard on regulatory headlines from FHFA Director Bill Pulte. The mixed session left the major averages with a choppy finish to a week defined by swinging oil prices, rising yields, and shifting Fed expectations.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| Dow Jones | 53,414.25 | -271.86 | -0.51% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,528.04 | -77.07 | -0.29% |
| S&P 500 | 7,718.60 | -29.11 | -0.38% |
Breadth (NYSE): Advancers 1,321 | Decliners 1,369 | Volume 987.83 mln
Breadth (Nasdaq): Advancers 2,532 | Decliners 2,338 | Volume 6.54 bln
WaveFinder Market Breadth (as of 09/04/26):
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bullish (Bulls 1,066 / Bears 787)
- 4% Sentiment: Bullish (Bulls 165 / Bears 75)
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Neutral
- Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 15%
- Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 44.95%
- 9-Month Bulls: 21 | Bears: 7 (Follow-Through: 30%)
YTD Performance: Russell 2000 +19.9% | S&P Mid Cap 400 +14.5% | Nasdaq Composite +14.1% | S&P 500 +12.8% | DJIA +11.1%
Sector Performance
Ranked from strongest to weakest based on Briefing.com Industry Watch and session commentary:
1. Industrials — +0.4% (boosted by semiconductor-linked strength)
2. Information Technology — +0.2% (semis rallied, software sold off)
3. Communication Services — -0.9%
4. Financials — -0.8%
5. Consumer Discretionary — -1.3% (Tesla, lululemon weighed heavily)
6. Energy — Weak (specific % not disclosed)
7. Materials — Weak (specific % not disclosed)
8. Health Care — Weak (specific % not disclosed)
9. Real Estate — Weak (specific % not disclosed)
10. Consumer Staples — Weak (specific % not disclosed)
Note: Briefing.com’s Industry Watch classified Information Technology and Industrials as the session’s only “Strong” sectors, with all remaining nine sectors — Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Materials, Health Care, Financials, Communication Services, Real Estate, and Consumer Staples — grouped as “Weak.”
WaveFinder Sector ATR (Volatility Gauge): Energy showed the highest and rising volatility (2.40% ATR, rising, P47), while Health Care (1.98%, falling, P0) and Communication Services (1.22%, falling, P16) also registered elevated readings. Utilities (-2.16%) and Real Estate (-2.06%) showed the most subdued/falling volatility profiles.
Key Earnings & Movers
- Tesla (TSLA) — $354.08, -$22.28 (-5.92%): Gave back Thursday’s rally.
- lululemon athletica (LULU) — $100.61, -$21.16 (-17.38%): Plunged below $100 for the first time in years following a disappointing Q2 report and second consecutive FY27 guidance cut.
- Adobe (ADBE) — $266.51, -$19.24 (-6.73%): Fell after naming a new CEO.
- Sandisk (SNDK) — $1,740.00, +$185.01 (+11.90%): Surged on stronger DRAM/NAND pricing, robust server demand, and broader semiconductor strength.
- FICO (Fair Isaac) — $932.26, -$186.67 (-16.68%): Tumbled after FHFA Director Bill Pulte said Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac will allow lenders to use VantageScore, increasing competition.
- Equifax (EFX) — $177.05, -$12.04 (-6.37%): Fell on Pulte’s criticism of credit-reporting agency pricing.
- TransUnion (TRU) — $79.88, -$5.04 (-5.94%): Declined on the same regulatory headlines, including a potential “bi-merge” credit report system.
- Oracle (ORCL) — $158.83, +$4.79 (+3.11%): Notable gainer; reports quarterly earnings after Thursday’s close next week.
- DocuSign (DOCU) — Trading higher after Q2 results showed IAM platform adoption reaching 15.1% of ARR and raised FY27 ARR growth guidance to +8.5-9.0% from +8.25-8.75%.
Stock Spotlight
lululemon athletica (LULU): $100.61, -$21.16 (-17.38%)
lululemon shares fell below $100 for the first time in several years after another disappointing quarter reignited concerns about the brand’s turnaround, coming just ahead of a CEO transition. While Q2 EPS of $2.92 (which included a $0.86 tariff-refund benefit) technically beat prior guidance, revenue fell 4% year-over-year to $2.42 billion, missing expectations. The real damage came from guidance: Q3 EPS and revenue guidance came in well below expectations, and management cut FY27 guidance for the second consecutive quarter.
The underlying comp trends were the most alarming element of the report. Total comparable sales declined 9% (10% in constant currency), driven primarily by traffic weakness rather than pricing. Americas comps fell 12% — worse than the 5% decline in Q1 — while International comps swung to a 3% decline (6% in CC) from 13% growth in Q1, with China reversing from a growth driver to a drag (comps -8% in CC). Leggings, a core category, saw sales decline roughly 20%. Gross margin of 60.5% was aided by a 560-bp tariff-refund benefit, masking underlying product margin pressure from tariffs and increased markdowns; operating margin still fell 190 bps to 18.8% despite the refund tailwind. Management is responding with increased H2 marketing investment and a more aggressive product-chase strategy (chase volume up ~20% YoY), but investors clearly viewed the second straight guidance cut as evidence that the brand’s traffic and demand challenges are deepening rather than stabilizing.
Bond Market & Treasuries
U.S. Treasuries finished the week on a lower note, reversing a modestly higher start after the stronger-than-expected August jobs report shifted rate expectations. The CME FedWatch Tool moved to a roughly 60% implied probability of a September rate hike.
Yield Check (Friday change / weekly change):
- 2-Year: 4.38% (+5 bps / +3 bps this week)
- 3-Year: 4.45% (+4 bps / +5 bps this week)
- 5-Year: 4.55% (+4 bps / +7 bps this week)
- 10-Year: 4.78% (+2 bps / +6 bps this week)
- 30-Year: 5.25% (unchanged / +4 bps this week)
The 2s10s spread widened by 3 basis points on the week to 40 bps, with relative weakness concentrated in the belly of the curve. Treasuries hit session lows immediately following the jobs report before recovering a portion of losses and trading sideways into the close; the long bond briefly turned positive before slipping back into the red. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 99.16 (trimming its weekly loss to 0.5%). Separately, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned Golden Global investment bank over Iran-related dealings, and Norway’s sovereign wealth fund was reported to be considering trimming its U.S. Treasury holdings.
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil: $91.50/bbl, +$0.15 (+0.2%) — gained roughly 10% for the week amid the U.S.-Iran conflict backdrop, though narrowed to an $8.12/bbl weekly gain by Friday’s close.
- Gold: $4,476.00/ozt, -1.4%
- Copper: $6.68/lb, +0.2%
- Silver: Not reported in available data.
Overseas Markets
Specific Asian and European index levels were not included in today’s data; however, key macro developments were reported:
- Japan: July Household Spending rose 0.5% m/m (expected 2.6%; prior -6.4%) but fell 3.6% yr/yr (expected -1.6%; prior -3.3%). Finance Minister Katayama confirmed the FY27/28 budget will reach a record JPY 143 trillion.
- South Korea: July Current Account surplus of $42.08 billion (down from a prior $49.73 billion surplus).
- Eurozone: July Retail Sales fell 0.6% m/m (expected +0.3%; prior +0.2%) but rose 0.6% yr/yr (expected +1.1%; prior +1.4%).
- Germany: July Factory Orders rose 2.5% m/m (expected +0.3%; prior +3.7%).
- Italy: July Retail Sales fell 0.4% m/m (expected +0.2%; prior -0.2%) but rose 0.8% yr/yr (prior +3.1%).
- U.K.: Reportedly moving to approve new North Sea oil drilling efforts.
- Corporate: Volkswagen’s supervisory board approved a plan for up to 50,000 additional job cuts.
Economic Data
August Employment Situation Report (released 8:30 AM ET):
- Nonfarm Payrolls: +162,000 (Briefing.com consensus: +45,000); July revised to +21,000 from -23,000; June revised to +31,000 from +20,000
- Private Sector Payrolls: +127,000 (consensus +45,000); July revised to +71,000 from +30,000
- 3-Month Average Payroll Growth: 71,000 (up from 38,000)
- Unemployment Rate: 4.1% (consensus 4.2%; prior 4.1%)
- Average Hourly Earnings: +0.3% m/m (consensus 0.2%; July revised to +0.2% from +0.1%); +3.1% yr/yr (down from +3.2%)
- Average Workweek: 34.4 hours (consensus 34.3; prior 34.3); manufacturing workweek +0.1 hour to 40.5 hours
- U6 Underemployment Rate: 7.7% (down from 7.9%)
- Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.6% (up from 61.4%)
- Employment-Population Ratio: 59.1% (up from 58.9%)
- Long-term unemployed (27+ weeks): 27.0% of total unemployed, up from 25.5% in July
Market Impact: The headline beat drove a sharp repricing of Fed rate-hike odds (to ~60% for September) and pushed the 10-year yield toward 4.80% before meeting resistance. However, Briefing.com noted offsetting soft spots — the modest 71,000 three-month payroll average, cooling wage growth on a yr/yr basis, and rising long-term unemployment — suggesting a September hike is not a foregone conclusion.
Looking Ahead
- Monday, Sept 7: U.S. bond and equity markets closed for Labor Day.
- Tuesday, Sept 8: August NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Briefing.com consensus 99.3; prior 99.8) at 6:00 AM ET; $58 billion 3-year Treasury note auction.
- Week Ahead: August Producer Price Index (consensus +0.4%; prior 0.0%) and August Consumer Price Index (consensus +0.4%; prior +0.1%) are the week’s key catalysts, with CPI due September 11 — widely viewed as the decisive data point for September FOMC rate-hike expectations ahead of the September 15-16 meeting.
- Earnings: The holiday-shortened week is light on earnings, though Oracle (ORCL) reports after Thursday’s close.
- Fed Watch: Markets will continue parsing commentary from FOMC officials, with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh notably withholding explicit forward guidance, leaving policy-path signals to hinge on incoming data.