Market Summary
U.S. equities closed out a choppy Friday session mostly lower, with the S&P 500 slipping 19.23 points (-0.25%) to 7711.76 and the Nasdaq Composite shedding 138.93 points (-0.52%) to finish at 26423.47. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was essentially flat, down just 9.45 points (-0.02%) to 53559.99. The session was dominated by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address, in which he reiterated that price stability remains the Fed’s predominant focus given inflation still running above the 2% target. That hawkish tone triggered a sharp repricing of September rate-hike odds — jumping to 57.5%-60% from roughly 35-40% the prior day — and sent Treasury yields higher across the curve, with the pressure concentrated at the short end.
Market internals were considerably weaker than the headline index moves suggest. Smaller-cap stocks bore the brunt of the rate repricing, with the Russell 2000 falling 1.4% and the S&P Mid Cap 400 down 1.2% on the day. Six of eleven S&P 500 sectors finished lower, led by information technology (-1.3%), even as non-semiconductor mega-caps — Amazon (+3.97%), Microsoft (+1.68%), Apple (+1.63%), and Alphabet (+1.53%) — provided ballast for the major averages. Semiconductors were the primary drag, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index sinking 3.5% as NVIDIA gave back a chunk of its post-earnings surge and Marvell tumbled double digits following its own results.
Despite Friday’s pullback, all three major averages notched gains for the week: the Nasdaq rose 1.9%, while the S&P 500 and DJIA each added 0.5%. That strength was narrowly concentrated in mega-cap growth and software names, masking a much weaker breadth picture beneath the surface — the Russell 2000 fell 1.5% and the S&P Mid Cap 400 declined 1.3% for the week, underscoring the market’s ongoing large-cap/small-cap divergence heading into next week’s rate-sensitive data calendar.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| Dow Jones | 53,559.99 | -9.45 | -0.02% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,423.47 | -138.93 | -0.52% |
| S&P 500 | 7,711.76 | -19.23 | -0.25% |
Breadth (NYSE): Advancers 1,141 | Decliners 1,570 | Volume 1.01 bln
Breadth (Nasdaq): Advancers 1,512 | Decliners 3,399 | Volume 8.51 bln
WaveFinder Breadth Metrics (as of 8/28):
- Primary Sentiment: Bullish | 4% Sentiment: Very Bearish | 40-SMA Sentiment: Neutral
- Primary Bulls/Bears: 781 / 542
- 4% Bulls/Bears: 76 / 333
- % of Stocks Above 20-Day SMA: 19%
- % of Stocks Above 40-Day SMA: 50.98%
- 9-Month Bulls/Bears: 7 / 26 (Bull Follow-Through: 9.8%)
The stark gap between negative daily breadth (decliners outpacing advancers on both exchanges) and only 19% of stocks trading above their 20-day moving average confirms a narrow, mega-cap-led tape masking broader underlying weakness.
Sector Performance
Ranked from strongest to weakest (Briefing.com Industry Watch classification; % changes noted where disclosed):
1. Consumer Discretionary +1.7% (Strong) — led by Amazon
2. Communication Services +1.6% (Strong) — led by Alphabet; WaveFinder ATR 2.98% (rising, P89) — most volatile sector
3. Financials +0.3% (Strong)
4. Consumer Staples (Strong; specific % not disclosed) — WaveFinder ATR 0.66% (flat, P47)
5. Energy (Strong; specific % not disclosed) — WaveFinder ATR 2.33% (falling, P63)
6. Health Care — not flagged strong/weak in today’s Industry Watch; WaveFinder ATR 2.59% (flat, P47)
7. Materials (Weak; specific % not disclosed) — WaveFinder ATR 1.00% (flat, P16)
8. Industrials -1.0% (Weak) — WaveFinder ATR -1.25% (falling, P0)
9. Utilities -1.1% (Weak) — WaveFinder ATR -2.37% (falling, P5)
10. Information Technology -1.3% (Weak) — dragged by semiconductors; WaveFinder ATR -1.06% (flat, P11)
11. Real Estate (Weak; specific % not disclosed) — WaveFinder ATR -1.23% (flat, P0)
Note: Semiconductors were the single largest drag within tech, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index down 3.5% on the day (-2.3% for the week), while software outperformed within the sector — the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF fell just 0.7% on the day but was up 5.9% for the week.
Key Earnings & Movers
- Amazon (AMZN) $266.43, +$10.17 (+3.97%) — Mega-cap strength led the consumer discretionary sector higher.
- Alphabet (GOOG) $342.88, +$5.17 (+1.53%) — Contributed to communication services outperformance.
- Apple (AAPL) $319.70, +$5.12 (+1.63%) — Provided support to headline indices despite tech-sector weakness.
- Microsoft (MSFT) $513.53, +$8.47 (+1.68%) — Advanced alongside other mega-caps outside semiconductors.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) $217.48, -$10.50 (-4.61%) — Gave back a portion of its post-earnings surge from earlier in the week.
- Marvell Technology (MRVL) $216.62, -$24.83 (-10.28%) — Notable laggard following Q2 results; stock had rallied 40%+ since late July heading into the print.
- PayPal (PYPL) $53.66, -$7.81 (-12.71%) — Worst-performing S&P 500 component after Bloomberg reported the Advent/Stripe consortium abandoned its ~$50 bln leveraged buyout plan.
- Workday (WDAY) $204.72, +$11.15 (+5.76%) — Best-performing S&P 500 name; Q2 results topped FactSet earnings and revenue estimates on improving profitability, AI traction, and a new buyback authorization.
- Ulta Beauty (ULTA) — Traded lower despite a beat-and-raise Q2 (EPS $6.55, revenue +8.9% yr/yr to $3.04 bln); muted back-half guidance (FY27 EPS $28.70-$29.00, revenue $13.22-$13.28 bln) tempered enthusiasm.
Stock Spotlight
Marvell Technology (MRVL) was one of the session’s most closely watched movers, falling 10.28% to $216.62 despite delivering a strong underlying quarter. Q2 (July) revenue grew 36.5% yr/yr to a record $2.74 billion, and Q3 guidance came in above consensus at the midpoint. Data Center revenue — the company’s key AI growth driver — rose 46% yr/yr and 18% sequentially to $2.17 billion, with Q3 guidance calling for 75% yr/yr growth. Non-GAAP gross margin came in at 58.9%, slightly above the midpoint of prior guidance, though management guided Q3 gross margin down modestly to 57.5%-58.5% amid mix pressure from the ramping Custom silicon business.
The more telling story was Marvell’s raised long-term outlook: FY27 revenue guidance was lifted to $12 billion (+45%) from $11.5 billion, while FY28 guidance was raised to $18 billion (+50%) from $16.5 billion (+45%), reinforcing the bullish AI infrastructure narrative. Briefing.com’s analysis suggests the stock’s decline reflects elevated investor expectations — following a 40%+ rally since late July and on the heels of NVIDIA’s strong week — rather than any fundamental deterioration in the story. With growth broad-based across interconnect, switching, and Custom, the pullback appears more a function of “sell-the-news” positioning than a change in the underlying AI capex trajectory.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Treasuries sold off sharply Friday, led by the short end of the curve, as Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks drove September rate-hike odds sharply higher.
Yield Check (daily change / weekly change):
- 2-yr: 4.35% (+12 bps / +12 bps this week)
- 3-yr: 4.40% (+10 bps / +9 bps this week)
- 5-yr: 4.48% (+9 bps / +6 bps this week) — highest level since early 2025
- 10-yr: 4.72% (+5 bps / -2 bps this week)
- 30-yr: 5.21% (+2 bps / -7 bps this week)
The 2s10s spread tightened by 14 bps to 37 bps this week, reversing its widening trend from 27 bps to 52 bps over the prior two months. The 3-yr and 5-yr note yields hit fresh highs for the year, while the long bond outperformed on the day but still could not secure a higher finish; it did post a solid weekly gain. Warsh emphasized a “quieter Fed” with disciplined policy communication, citing strong business spending and profit growth over the past 12 months while flagging rising commodity prices as a watch item for inflation.
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil: $83.38/bbl, -0.2% on the day; down $3.69/bbl (-4.2%) for the week amid volatility tied to Iran/Strait of Hormuz developments
- Gold: $4,528.40/ozt, -2.9%
- Copper: $6.66/lb, -0.5%
- Silver: not disclosed in available data
Overseas Markets
Specific index-level closes for Asia and Europe were not disclosed in today’s data; however, key overseas economic releases influencing sentiment included:
Asia:
- Japan’s August Tokyo CPI: +1.9% yr/yr (prior 1.8%); Tokyo Core CPI +1.8% yr/yr (as expected, prior 1.7%)
- Japan July jobs/applications ratio held at 1.18 (expected 1.19); Unemployment Rate fell to 2.4% from 2.5% (expected 2.5%)
- India July Industrial Production +6.7% yr/yr (expected 6.0%, prior 8.8%); Manufacturing Output +7.3% m/m (prior 9.5%)
- S&P affirmed China’s A+ sovereign rating with a Stable outlook
- Japan PM Takaichi confirmed cabinet changes planned for second half of September
Europe:
- Eurozone August Business and Consumer Survey rose to 98.4 from 97.1 (expected 97.5)
- Germany July Import Price Index +0.2% m/m (expected 0.3%, prior -0.7%), +6.8% yr/yr (prior 6.1%); August Unemployment +4,000 as expected, rate steady at 6.4%
- France Q2 GDP flat qtr/qtr (expected 0.2%, prior -0.2%), +0.5% yr/yr; August CPI +0.7% m/m (as expected), +2.4% yr/yr (prior 2.1%); July Consumer Spending +0.5% m/m (expected 0.1%)
- Italy June Industrial Sales -1.0% m/m, +3.1% yr/yr; August Business Confidence rose to 89.9 (expected 90.0); Consumer Confidence rose to 94.5 (expected 95.0)
- Spain August CPI +0.7% m/m (expected 0.6%), +4.3% yr/yr (expected 4.2%); Core CPI +2.9% yr/yr
- Swiss August KOF Leading Indicators jumped to 106.7 from 104.2 (expected 103.0)
Currencies: U.S. Dollar Index +0.5% to 99.69 (reclaimed its 200-day moving average of 99.16; +0.9% for the week); EUR/USD -0.6% to 1.1582; GBP/USD -0.4% to 1.3532; USD/CNH +0.2% to 6.7325; USD/JPY +0.5% to 160.10.
Economic Data
- August Chicago PMI: 47.1 (Briefing.com consensus 57.0; prior 57.6) — a significant miss signaling contraction in regional manufacturing activity.
- August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final): 51.7 (Briefing.com consensus 51.0; prior reading 51.0; final July reading 55.2; year-ago level 58.2) — Briefing.com’s key takeaway: persistent inflation concerns continue to undercut consumer sentiment.
Looking Ahead
The Week Ahead:
- Monday: Nothing of note scheduled.
- Tuesday: Final August S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (prior 53.2) at 9:45 ET; July Job Openings (Briefing.com consensus 7.390 mln; prior 7.359 mln); July Construction Spending (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior -0.1%); August ISM Manufacturing Index due for release.
Markets head into next week digesting a materially repriced rate outlook following Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks, with the September FOMC meeting probability for a 25-bp hike now standing at 57.5%-60%. Investors will watch incoming manufacturing and labor market data (ISM Manufacturing, Job Openings) for confirmation or pushback on the shift in rate expectations, while continued volatility in semiconductors and small/mid-cap names bears monitoring given this week’s pronounced divergence from mega-cap strength.