Market Summary
U.S. equities closed out a choppy Friday session modestly lower, with the S&P 500 slipping 19.23 points (-0.25%) to 7711.76 and the Nasdaq Composite shedding 138.93 points (-0.52%) to 26423.47, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was essentially flat, down just 9.45 points (-0.02%) to 53559.99. The session’s tone was set by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address, in which he emphasized that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target and that price stability should be the central bank’s predominant focus. That hawkish messaging triggered a sharp repricing of September rate-hike odds — jumping to 57.5%-60% from roughly 35-40% the prior day — and sent Treasury yields higher across the curve, with the move most pronounced at the short end.
Sector performance diverged sharply along cap-size and industry lines. Non-semiconductor mega-cap strength in Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, and Microsoft lifted consumer discretionary (+1.7%) and communication services (+1.6%) to the top of the leaderboard and helped cushion the headline indices. Semiconductors, however, were the session’s biggest casualty — the PHLX Semiconductor Index tumbled 3.5% as NVIDIA and Marvell gave back recent gains — dragging information technology (-1.3%) to the bottom alongside utilities (-1.1%) and industrials (-1.0%). Six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors finished lower on the day.
Smaller-cap names bore the brunt of the rate repricing, with the Russell 2000 falling 1.4% and the S&P Mid Cap 400 down 1.2% — both considerably wider losses than the major averages. Despite Friday’s pullback, all three major averages closed the week in positive territory, with the Nasdaq leading at +1.9% week-to-date, followed by the S&P 500 and DJIA, both +0.5%, while the Russell 2000 (-1.5%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-1.3%) lagged for the week.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 53,559.99 | -9.45 | -0.02% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,423.47 | -138.93 | -0.52% |
| S&P 500 | 7,711.76 | -19.23 | -0.25% |
Breadth (NYSE): Advancers 1,141 | Decliners 1,570 | Volume 1.01 bln
Breadth (Nasdaq): Advancers 1,512 | Decliners 3,399 | Volume 8.51 bln
WaveFinder Breadth Metrics:
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bullish | 4% Sentiment: Bearish | 40 SMA Sentiment: Bearish
- Primary Bulls: 1,007 | Bears: 689
- 4% Bulls: 40 | Bears: 250
- Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 10%
- Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 46.02%
- 9-Month Bulls: 4 | Bears: 30
- 9-Month Bull Follow-Through: 9.8%
Weekly performance context: Russell 2000 +19.8% YTD, S&P Mid Cap 400 +14.4% YTD, Nasdaq Composite +13.6% YTD, S&P 500 +12.7% YTD, DJIA +11.4% YTD.
Sector Performance
1. Consumer Discretionary +1.7% — led by Amazon strength
2. Communication Services +1.6% — led by Alphabet
3. Consumer Staples — Strong (Briefing Industry Watch)
4. Energy — Strong (Briefing Industry Watch)
5. Financials +0.3%
6. Health Care — not specified in today’s Industry Watch data
7. Materials — Weak (Briefing Industry Watch)
8. Real Estate — Weak (Briefing Industry Watch)
9. Utilities -1.1%
10. Industrials -1.0%
11. Information Technology -1.3% (PHLX Semiconductor Index -3.5%)
WaveFinder Sector ATR (Volatility):
- Communication Services: 2.99% (rising, P89)
- Health Care: 2.61% (flat, P47)
- Energy: 2.32% (falling, P63)
- Materials: 0.99% (flat, P16)
- Financials: 0.80% (rising, P26)
- Consumer Staples: 0.65% (flat, P47)
- Technology: -1.06% (flat, P11)
- Real Estate: -1.24% (flat, P0)
- Industrials: -1.26% (falling, P0)
- Consumer Discretionary: -0.18% (flat, P11)
- Utilities: -2.38% (falling, P5)
Key Earnings & Movers
Gainers:
- Workday (WDAY) $204.72, +11.15 (+5.76%) — Q2 results topped EPS and revenue estimates; investors cited improving profitability, AI traction, and a new repurchase authorization
- Amazon (AMZN) $266.43, +10.17 (+3.97%) — mega-cap strength
- Microsoft (MSFT) $513.53, +8.47 (+1.68%)
- Alphabet (GOOG) $342.88, +5.17 (+1.53%)
- Apple (AAPL) $319.70, +5.12 (+1.63%)
Decliners:
- PayPal (PYPL) $53.66, -7.81 (-12.71%) — worst S&P 500 performer after Bloomberg reported the Advent/Stripe consortium abandoned its ~$50 bln leveraged buyout, though talks could resume later
- Marvell (MRVL) $216.62, -24.83 (-10.28%) — pulled back despite strong quarterly results, as investors wanted more upside after a 40%+ rally since late July
- NVIDIA (NVDA) $217.48, -10.50 (-4.61%) — gave back a portion of yesterday’s post-earnings surge
Premarket movers (Page One): Elastic (ESTC) +25%, Gap (GAP) +18%, Affirm (AFRM) +11% on earnings; Marvell (MRVL) -8%, Rubrik (RBRK) -5%, Autodesk (ADSK) -4% premarket following earnings.
Also notable: Ulta Beauty (ULTA) traded lower despite a beat-and-raise Q2 (EPS $6.55, revenue +8.9% yr/yr to $3.04 bln), as a measured back-half outlook tempered enthusiasm.
Stock Spotlight
Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed at $216.62, down $24.83 (-10.28%), as the market’s reaction to an otherwise strong quarter underscored just how elevated expectations had become. Q2 (July) revenue grew 36.5% yr/yr to a record $2.74 billion, and Q3 guidance came in above consensus at the midpoint, but EPS upside was modest and gross margin is expected to contract slightly next quarter (57.5%-58.5% vs. 58.9% in Q2). Data Center revenue rose 46% yr/yr and 18% sequentially to $2.17 billion, with Q3 guidance calling for 75% yr/yr growth, driven by broad-based strength in interconnect, switching, and custom silicon supporting AI infrastructure buildouts.
The more consequential story lay in Marvell’s raised long-term targets: FY27 revenue guidance moved up to $12 billion (+45%) from $11.5 billion, and FY28 guidance rose to $18 billion (+50%) from $16.5 billion (+45%), reinforcing an increasingly bullish AI infrastructure narrative. Briefing.com’s analysis framed the selloff as a function of elevated expectations — following a 40%+ rally since late July and on the heels of NVIDIA’s strong print earlier in the week — rather than any fundamental deterioration in the underlying growth story.
Bond Market & Treasuries
U.S. Treasuries sold off sharply Friday following Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, with 3-year and 5-year yields hitting fresh highs for the year. Warsh signaled a desire for a “quieter Fed” with disciplined policy communication, cited strong business spending and profit growth, but flagged rising commodity prices as a watch-item for inflation. The implied probability of a September rate hike jumped to 57.5%-60% from roughly 35-40% the prior session.
Yield Check (Friday close):
- 2-year: 4.35%, +12 bps (+12 bps week) — highest levels approaching July peak
- 3-year: 4.40%, +10 bps (+9 bps week)
- 5-year: 4.48%, +9 bps (+6 bps week) — highest since early 2025
- 10-year: 4.72%, +5 bps (-2 bps week)
- 30-year: 5.21%, +2 bps (-7 bps week)
The 2s10s spread tightened 14 bps to 37 bps this week, reversing part of its widening from 27 bps to 52 bps over the prior two months. The long bond notched a solid weekly gain despite Friday’s lower finish.
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil: $83.38/bbl, -0.2% on the day; -4.2% to -4.3% for the week ($3.69/bbl decline), amid volatility tied to Iran/Strait of Hormuz developments
- Gold: $4,528.40/ozt, -2.9%
- Copper: $6.66/lb, -0.5%
- Silver: Not reported in available data
Currencies: U.S. Dollar Index +0.5% to 99.69 (reclaimed 200-day moving average of 99.16; +0.9% for the week). EUR/USD -0.6% to 1.1582; GBP/USD -0.4% to 1.3532; USD/CNH +0.2% to 6.7325; USD/JPY +0.5% to 160.10.
Overseas Markets
Specific index-level performance for Asian and European equity markets was not included in today’s data set. Available overseas economic data points include:
Asia: Japan’s August Tokyo CPI rose 1.9% yr/yr (prior 1.8%) and Tokyo Core CPI rose 1.8% yr/yr, as expected (prior 1.7%); July jobs/applications ratio held at 1.18 (expected 1.19); July Unemployment Rate fell to 2.4% from 2.5% (expected 2.5%). Japan’s PM Takaichi confirmed cabinet changes planned for mid-September. India’s July Industrial Production rose 6.7% yr/yr (expected 6.0%; prior 8.8%) and Manufacturing Output rose 7.3% m/m (prior 9.5%). S&P affirmed China’s A+ sovereign rating with a Stable outlook.
Europe: Eurozone’s August Business and Consumer Survey rose to 98.4 from 97.1 (expected 97.5). Germany’s July Import Price Index rose 0.2% m/m (expected 0.3%), up 6.8% yr/yr; August Unemployment rose by 4,000 as expected, rate steady at 6.4%. France’s Q2 GDP was flat qtr/qtr (expected +0.2%), up 0.5% yr/yr; August CPI rose 0.7% m/m as expected, up 2.4% yr/yr; July Consumer Spending rose 0.5% m/m (expected 0.1%). Italy’s August Business Confidence rose to 89.9 from 89.7; Consumer Confidence rose to 94.5 from 94.2. Spain’s August CPI rose 0.7% m/m, up 4.3% yr/yr (expected 4.2%); Core CPI up 2.9% yr/yr. Switzerland’s August KOF Leading Indicators rose to 106.7 from 104.2 (expected 103.0). French Finance Minister Lescure noted the economy suffered from the summer heatwave, with Q3 data expected to be impacted.
Economic Data
- August Chicago PMI: 47.1 (Briefing.com consensus 57.0; prior 57.6) — a significant miss signaling contraction
- August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final): 51.7 (Briefing.com consensus 51.0; prior/preliminary 51.0; July final 55.2; year-ago 58.2) — key takeaway: persistent inflation concerns continue to undercut consumer sentiment
Looking Ahead
Monday: Nothing of note scheduled.
Tuesday:
- Final August S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (prior 53.2) — 9:45 ET
- July Job Openings (Briefing.com consensus 7.390 mln; prior 7.359 mln)
- July Construction Spending (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior -0.1%)
- August ISM Manufacturing Index
Markets will continue digesting Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks heading into next week, with elevated September rate-hike odds and rising short-end yields likely to remain a focal point for trading sentiment.