Market Summary
U.S. equities closed little changed on Wednesday, August 26, as investors braced for NVIDIA’s (NVDA) highly anticipated earnings report due after the closing bell. The S&P 500 finished essentially flat at 7,675.70 (-1.58, -0.02%), the Nasdaq Composite slipped 21.10 points (-0.08%) to 26,151.24, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged with a decline of 113.52 points (-0.21%) to 53,463.88. Beneath the surface, however, participation was more balanced than the headline figures suggested — the S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index outperformed its market-cap-weighted counterpart with a +0.3% gain, and four of eleven S&P 500 sectors finished in positive territory.
The session’s tone was set early by a muted reaction to July’s Personal Income and Spending data, which showed the year-over-year PCE Price Index holding at 3.7% and core PCE steady at 3.3% — unchanged from June. The data briefly pushed the CME FedWatch Tool’s implied probability of a 25-basis-point September rate hike up to 40% from 36%, but odds reverted to 36% by the close. Afternoon volatility was also injected by a spike in WTI crude tied to reports of an Iran-Oman revenue-sharing arrangement over Strait of Hormuz traffic, which coincided with the market’s move to session lows before fading into the close.
Sector rotation favored cyclicals and defensives over growth-sensitive and consumer-facing groups. Industrials (+1.1%) led on strength in courier names, while Information Technology (+0.4%) held up despite pre-earnings weakness in NVIDIA. Health Care (-1.0%), Communication Services (-0.7%), and Consumer Discretionary (-0.6%) lagged, weighed down by profit-taking in biotech names and continued softness in athletic apparel. Attention now turns squarely to NVIDIA’s results and their potential to set the tone for the semiconductor trade and broader tech complex heading into Thursday’s session.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 53,463.88 | -113.52 | -0.21% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,151.24 | -21.10 | -0.08% |
| S&P 500 | 7,675.70 | -1.58 | -0.02% |
NYSE Breadth: Advancers 1,255 | Decliners 1,450 | Volume 974.50 mln
Nasdaq Breadth: Advancers 2,021 | Decliners 2,840 | Volume 7.09 bln
WaveFinder Breadth Metrics:
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bullish (Bulls 1,087 / Bears 662)
- 4% Sentiment: Neutral (Bulls 74 / Bears 56)
- 40-day SMA Sentiment: Neutral
- % of stocks above 20-day SMA: 18%
- % of stocks above 40-day SMA: 51.48%
- 9-Month Bulls/Bears: 8 / 8 (Follow-Through: 18.18%)
YTD Performance: Russell 2000 +21.1% | S&P MidCap 400 +15.7% | Nasdaq Composite +12.4% | S&P 500 +12.1% | DJIA +11.2%
Sector Performance
Ranked from strongest to weakest (per Briefing.com Industry Watch and session commentary):
1. Industrials +1.1% — broad-based strength, led by courier stocks
2. Information Technology +0.4% — supported despite NVDA weakness ahead of earnings; PHLX Semiconductor Index +0.2%
3. Energy +0.3% — held gains despite oil giving back an afternoon spike
4. Utilities — categorized as strong (specific % not disclosed)
5. Materials — not specifically reported in today’s commentary
6. Consumer Staples — categorized as weak (specific % not disclosed)
7. Real Estate — categorized as weak (specific % not disclosed)
8. Financials — categorized as weak (specific % not disclosed)
9. Consumer Discretionary -0.6% — pressured by continued weakness in athletic apparel (NKE)
10. Communication Services -0.7% — laggard despite a higher close in META
11. Health Care -1.0% — worst-performing sector, dragged by MRNA and LLY
Volatility Watch (WaveFinder Sector ATR): Communication Services (3.20%, rising, P95) and Health Care (3.17%, rising, P74) showed the sharpest volatility expansion, consistent with today’s outsized single-stock moves (META, MRNA, LLY). Technology ATR is falling (-0.94%, P47), suggesting compressing volatility ahead of NVDA’s report.
Key Earnings & Movers
- NVIDIA (NVDA) $209.95, -3.10 (-1.46%) — declined ahead of its highly anticipated after-hours earnings report
- Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) $147.68, +38.78 (+35.61%) — surged on a Q2 beat-and-raise
- C.H. Robinson (CHRW) $151.73, +8.07 (+5.62%) — top S&P 500 performer on courier-sector strength
- Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) $129.71, +5.40 (+4.34%) — rose despite a disappointing Tuesday earnings report
- Meta Platforms (META) $576.14, +6.09 (+1.07%) — volatile session following proposed $17.1 bln youth-safety settlement
- Intuit (INTU) $345.88, -11.58 (-3.24%) — post-earnings weakness
- NIKE (NKE) $38.59, -0.89 (-2.25%) — extended retreat alongside broader athletic apparel weakness
- Moderna (MRNA) $149.66, -9.17 (-5.77%) — gave back gains following last week’s melanoma vaccine-driven surge
- Eli Lilly (LLY) $1,190.03, -43.63 (-3.54%) — laggard within health care
Stock Spotlight
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) was the standout mover of the session, surging 35.61% to $147.68 following a beat-and-raise Q2 report. EPS of $4.17 included a $1.75 tariff-refund benefit but still topped expectations even excluding that item, while revenue rose 5% year-over-year to a record $1.27 billion. The company raised full-year guidance to the high end of its prior range — approximately 5% revenue growth (~$5.53 billion) and EPS of $13.10-$13.60. Underlying momentum was encouraging: overall comps were flat (a sequential improvement from Q1’s -1%), with the Abercrombie brand posting 8% sales growth and 4% comps, while Hollister’s Target partnership — now spanning more than 1,500 locations — contributed positively despite softer Hollister comps (-3%). Operating margin of 19.9% beat guidance by roughly 990 basis points, with about 200 bps of that outperformance coming from genuine gross-margin and operating-leverage improvement beyond the tariff benefit.
The rally provided a halo effect for the broader retail and apparel complex, offering some offset to the day’s weakness in athletic apparel names like NIKE. Investors will watch whether ANF’s improving conversion, AUR trends, and full-price selling strength are indicative of a broader inflection in specialty retail heading into the holiday season.
Bond Market & Treasuries
U.S. Treasuries retreated Wednesday, pulling back after two days of gains in longer tenors. A $70 billion 5-year note auction drew softer demand than Tuesday’s 2-year offering (bid-to-cover 2.37 vs. 12-auction average of 2.38; indirect bid 61.5% vs. average 63.7%).
Yield Check:
- 2-year: 4.22% (+2 bps)
- 3-year: 4.29% (+3 bps)
- 5-year: 4.38% (+3 bps)
- 10-year: 4.66% (+3 bps)
- 30-year: 5.19% (+1 bp)
Key drivers included stubborn inflation data (PCE and core PCE both holding at June’s year-over-year levels) and an unrevised Q2 GDP print (1.5%) that nonetheless carried upward revisions to PCE (5.3% from 5.1%) and core PCE (3.6% from 3.4%). The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q3 GDP was revised up to 4.6% from 4.0%. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.2% to 99.16.
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil: $82.25/bbl, -0.1% (-$0.04) — spiked toward volatility on Strait of Hormuz reports before fully reversing
- Gold: $4,647.10/ozt, -1.0%
- Copper: $6.60/lb, -1.6%
- Weekly crude oil inventories rose by 95,000 barrels, following a 4.405 million barrel build the prior week
Overseas Markets
Specific index-level data for Asia and Europe was not provided in today’s reports; however, several regional data points influenced sentiment:
- Japan: July Corporate Services Price Index rose 3.6% y/y (vs. 3.2% expected, 3.4% prior); BoJ Governor Ueda will skip the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, with hawkish policymaker Tamura representing the BoJ instead
- Australia: July CPI rose 3.5% y/y (vs. 3.3% expected, 3.8% prior); Q2 Construction Work Done fell 2.1% q/q (vs. +0.5% expected)
- Singapore: July Industrial Production rose 2.3% m/m (vs. 3.0% expected) and 6.8% y/y
- U.K.: August CBI Distributive Trades Survey fell sharply to -48 from -26 (vs. -35 expected)
- Eurozone: Expectations for a September ECB rate hike are solidifying; ECB’s Schnabel noted rates must rise, with magnitude data-dependent. Swiss August ZEW Expectations rose to 12.1 from 10.0
- Currencies: EUR/USD -0.2% to 1.1651; GBP/USD -0.4% to 1.3592; USD/JPY +0.1% to 159.40; USD/CNH +0.1% to 6.7230
Economic Data
- Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index: -1.0% (prior -0.4%); Refinance Index -2.0%, Purchase Index -0.3%
- July Personal Income: +0.4% (consensus +0.2%; prior +0.2%)
- July Personal Spending: +0.2% (consensus +0.2%; prior +0.3%)
- July PCE Prices: +0.2% (consensus +0.1%; prior -0.1%); Core PCE +0.2% (consensus +0.2%; prior +0.1%). Year-over-year: headline PCE 3.7% (unchanged from June), core PCE 3.3% (unchanged from June)
- July Durable Goods Orders: +1.1% (consensus +0.5%; prior revised to +0.5% from +0.3%); ex-transportation +0.4% (consensus +0.5%), driven by a 12.7% jump in nondefense aircraft orders, though computer/electronics orders fell 1.1%
- Q2 GDP – Second Estimate: 1.5% (consensus 1.5%; unrevised); GDP Chain Deflator revised up to 6.4% (consensus 6.3%)
Market Impact: The data collectively signaled steady growth alongside persistent inflation, with core PCE holding above 3.0% for a fifth consecutive month. The report produced only a brief shift in rate-hike expectations before yields and equities settled back near pre-data levels.
Looking Ahead
- NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings — reported after Wednesday’s close; results and an expanded AWS partnership highlighted the after-hours session, with shares moving higher and setting the stage for Thursday’s tech and semiconductor trade
- 8:30 ET Thursday: Weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 210,000; prior 206,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.799 mln)
- 8:30 ET Thursday: July Advance International Trade in Goods (prior -$101.5 bln)
- Markets will assess NVIDIA’s results and guidance for read-through to the broader AI/semiconductor complex following a session in which the PHLX Semiconductor Index eked out only a modest +0.2% gain amid pre-earnings caution