Market Summary
U.S. equities staged a broad rebound on Friday (September 11), snapping a four-session losing streak as easing crude oil prices and renewed technology leadership overshadowed firming expectations for a Fed rate hike. The S&P 500 gained 65.28 points (+0.86%) to close at 7656.98, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 509.19 points (+0.98%) to 52573.29, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 251.31 points (+0.96%) to 26354.08. The Russell 2000 (+0.5%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.8%) also participated in the advance, though on a more modest scale.
The rally came despite an August CPI report that reinforced expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting, with the CME FedWatch Tool probability jumping to 86.5% from 69.4% pre-report. Investors instead focused on a $2.31 (-2.3%) pullback in WTI crude to $100.08/bbl, driven by reports that Gulf states will meet with Iran on Monday to discuss the Strait of Hormuz, and on renewed mega-cap tech leadership. Communication Services (+1.4%) and Information Technology (+1.1%) paced sector gains, with Alphabet, Apple, and a resurgent semiconductor complex (PHLX Semiconductor Index +1.8%) driving the advance.
Despite Friday’s strength, the major averages finished the holiday-shortened week firmly lower: the S&P 500 fell 0.8%, the Nasdaq fell 0.7%, and the DJIA lost 1.6% for the week, with small- and mid-caps underperforming (Russell 2000 -2.4%, S&P Mid Cap 400 -1.9%). Surging oil prices tied to escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and a sharp rise in Treasury yields were the dominant headwinds for most of the week, with Friday’s rebound only partially offsetting those losses. Attention now turns squarely to Wednesday’s FOMC decision.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,573.29 | +509.19 | +0.98% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,354.08 | +251.31 | +0.96% |
| S&P 500 | 7,656.98 | +65.28 | +0.86% |
Breadth (NYSE): Advancers 1,662 | Decliners 1,060 | Volume 1.12 bln
Breadth (Nasdaq): Advancers 2,866 | Decliners 2,026 | Volume 6.60 bln
WaveFinder Breadth Metrics (as of 9/11):
- Primary Sentiment: Neutral (Bulls 635 | Bears 635)
- 4% Sentiment: Bullish (Bulls 169 | Bears 117)
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Bearish
- Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 40.0%
- Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 36.94%
- 9M Bulls: 17 | Bears: 4 (Bull Follow-Through: 21.43%)
YTD Performance: Russell 2000 +17.0% | Nasdaq Composite +13.3% | S&P Mid Cap 400 +12.4% | S&P 500 +11.9% | DJIA +9.4%
Sector Performance
Friday’s Session (ranked, where data available):
1. Communication Services: +1.4%
2. Information Technology: +1.1%
3. Industrials: +1.1%
4. Consumer Discretionary: +1.1%
5. Health Care: -0.1%
6. Utilities: -0.3%
Energy, Financials, Consumer Staples, Materials, and Real Estate performance figures for Friday’s session were not specified in available data.
Volatility Backdrop (WaveFinder Sector ATR, 9/11):
- Technology: 0.67% ATR (rising, P100 — highest percentile reading)
- Health Care: 0.88% ATR (falling, P5)
- Energy: 1.82% ATR (falling, P5)
- Communication Services: 0.57% ATR (falling, P11)
- Financials: 0.31% ATR (flat, P26)
- Industrials: -1.90% ATR (flat, P11)
- Consumer Discretionary: -1.22% ATR (falling, P11)
- Consumer Staples: -1.17% ATR (falling, P5)
- Materials: -1.16% ATR (falling, P5)
- Utilities: -2.54% ATR (flat, P0)
- Real Estate: -2.70% ATR (falling, P5)
Weekly Context: Energy (+2.0%) and Communication Services (+1.1%) were the only sectors to finish the week higher. Health Care led declines (-3.6%), followed by Materials (-1.7%), Financials (-1.5%), Consumer Discretionary (-1.2%), Industrials (-1.1%), and Real Estate (-1.1%). Information Technology slipped just 0.2% for the week, aided by semiconductor resilience (PHLX Semiconductor Index +0.8% weekly) even as software names lagged (iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF -2.9%).
Key Earnings & Movers
- Alphabet (GOOG) — $335.45, +$5.06 (+1.53%): Gained alongside broader mega-cap tech leadership.
- Apple (AAPL) — $332.27, +$5.70 (+1.75%): Contributed to Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF’s 0.9% advance.
- Oracle (ORCL) — $150.15, -$2.79 (-1.82%): Initially jumped double-digits on strong Q1 earnings (121% y/y cloud infrastructure revenue growth, $30 bln+ in new AI-cloud contracts, maintained FY27 capex plans) before giving back gains by the close.
- Dell (DELL) — $567.14, +$60.52 (+11.95%): Surged on AI infrastructure demand read-through from Oracle’s results.
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) — $62.08, +$6.86 (+12.42%): Rallied on expectations for sustained server, networking, and storage demand.
- Kroger (KR) — Trading higher after beating Q2 EPS expectations; revenue rose 2% y/y to $34.6 bln. Lowered full-year identical-sales outlook (ex-fuel) to +0.2-0.8% from +1-2%, but reaffirmed adjusted EPS guidance of $5.10-5.30.
- RH — Trading higher on a large Q2 earnings beat; normalized adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.4% exceeded both guidance (11.5-13.0%) and consensus (12.8%), despite below-consensus Q3 revenue guidance.
Earlier-week movers (Tuesday, for context): Amgen (AMGN) fell to $393.17 (-$44.06, -10.08%) and Novartis (NVS) fell to $137.70 (-$22.29, -13.93%) amid clinical trial setbacks weighing on biotech/health care.
Stock Spotlight
Oracle (ORCL) and the AI Infrastructure Trade: Oracle’s quarterly report served as a critical bellwether for the AI infrastructure buildout narrative Friday. Shares initially spiked by double digits on headline results before fading to close down $2.79 (-1.82%) at $150.15. Despite the reversal, the underlying data was robust: cloud infrastructure revenue grew 121% year-over-year, the company signed more than $30 billion in new AI-cloud contracts, and management maintained its FY27 capital spending plans — all signals of continued data center investment demand.
The market’s read-through was overwhelmingly positive for adjacent hardware names, even as Oracle itself gave back its gains. Dell surged 11.95% to $567.14 and Hewlett Packard Enterprise jumped 12.42% to $62.08, as investors positioned for sustained demand in servers, networking equipment, and storage tied to AI infrastructure buildout. This dynamic — a single bellwether’s guidance rippling through an entire hardware ecosystem — underscored how central AI capex commentary has become to sector-wide sentiment, even independent of the reporting company’s own share price reaction.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Treasuries finished mostly lower Friday, capping a rough week that pushed yields on all notes and bonds to fresh highs for the year.
- 2-year yield: 4.64%, +9 bps on the day (+26 bps for the week, +28 bps for the month)
- 3-year yield: 4.73%, +8 bps (+28 bps for the week)
- 5-year yield: 4.79%, +6 bps (+24 bps for the week)
- 10-year yield: 4.98%, +3 bps (+20 bps for the week)
- 30-year yield: 5.36%, -1 bp (+11 bps for the week)
The 2s10s spread compressed 6 bps for the week to 34 bps, while the 2s30s spread tightened 15 bps to 72 bps. The primary driver remains firming rate-hike expectations: following the hotter-than-expected core CPI print, fed funds futures pushed the probability of a 25-bp hike at next week’s FOMC meeting to 86.5% (from 69.4% pre-report). The 5-year breakeven inflation rate also ticked up to 2.46% from 2.37% a week earlier, adding to inflation-expectation concerns. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.1% to 99.14, back at its 200-day moving average and roughly flat for the week.
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil: $100.08/bbl, -2.3% (-$2.31) — retreated on reports of a Monday meeting between Gulf states and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz; still up roughly 10% for the week.
- Gold: $4,409.10/ozt, unchanged
- Copper: $6.55/lb, unchanged
- Silver: Not specified in available data.
Overseas Markets
Specific Asia/Europe index-level performance was not provided in today’s data; however, key overseas developments included:
- China: Released a five-year plan for developing intelligent connected new energy vehicles; foreign automakers reportedly cutting prices on gas-powered vehicles amid competitive pressure.
- South Korea: Exports for the first 10 days of September rose 82.6% y/y, with chip exports soaring 270.1%.
- Japan: August PPI fell 0.2% m/m (expected 0.0%) but rose 7.6% y/y (expected 7.4%).
- United Kingdom: July GDP expanded 0.4% m/m (expected 0.0%), up 1.6% y/y; July Industrial Production rose 0.2% m/m; July Manufacturing Production rose 0.9% m/m, well above expectations. Trade deficit narrowed to GBP 20.97 bln (better than expected GBP 22.60 bln deficit).
- Eurozone: Several ECB policymakers commented that inflation remains too high, fueling speculation of an October rate hike. France’s finance ministry cut its domestic growth forecast to 0.5% from 0.7%.
- Italy: Q2 unemployment rate rose to 5.6% from 5.3% (expected 5.4%).
Currencies: EUR/USD -0.1% to 1.1594 | GBP/USD +0.1% to 1.3525 | USD/CNH -0.1% to 6.7085 | USD/JPY -0.4% to 153.75
Economic Data
- August CPI: +0.4% m/m (consensus +0.4%; prior +0.1%); Core CPI +0.3% m/m (consensus +0.2%; prior +0.2%). Year-over-year: total CPI 3.4% (unchanged from July), core CPI 2.4% (down from 2.5%). Takeaway: not sufficient to derail expectations for a September rate hike.
- September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary): 47.8 (consensus 51.5; prior 51.7). Sharp deterioration driven by worsening outlook for personal finances and business conditions.
- August Treasury Budget: Deficit of $166.8 bln (consensus -$485.0 bln; prior-year deficit $344.8 bln). Down 52% y/y on the surface, but fiscal YTD deficit remains near a record $1.97 trillion with interest costs up 13% y/y.
Looking Ahead
Tuesday, September 15:
- September Empire State Manufacturing Index (consensus 14.1; prior 20.6) — 8:30 ET
- $13 bln 20-year Treasury bond reopening results — 13:00 ET
Wednesday, September 16:
- Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior -2.7%) — 7:00 ET
- August Retail Sales (consensus +0.9%; prior -0.6%); Retail Sales ex-auto (consensus +0.5%; prior -0.3%)
- August Import/Export Prices — 8:30 ET
- July Business Inventories (consensus +0.2%; prior 0.0%)
- September NAHB Housing Market Index (consensus pending)
- FOMC Rate Decision — market pricing 86.5% probability of a 25-basis-point hike
Monday, September 14 has nothing of note scheduled. All eyes remain on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting as the key catalyst for the week, with markets having priced in a high probability of tightening following back-to-back hotter-than-expected inflation reports (PPI and CPI).